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| THE SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODEL FOR URBAN TOURIST DESTINATION CYCLE OF EVOLUTION |
| XU Hong-gang1, ZHENG Hai-yan2, BAO Ji-gang1 |
1. Center for Tourism Planning & Research, Zhongshan University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
2. Statistic Bureau of Shenzhen Futian District, Shenzhen 518038, China |
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Abstract Life cycle theory of the tourism destination proposed by Butler has been widely used in tourism research. However,many researchers also pointed out that the suitability and validity of the model is limited only to the isolated destinations,such as the island.The complexity of the urban tourism destination makes it impossible to apply the life cycle model.The metropolitan have the capacity to generate a series chain of tourism products.It is therefore quite common to observe the growth and decline of one particular kind of the tourism products yet similar patterns can be hardly observed for the tourism destinations.A simple system dynamics model is built to examine the various patterns of tourism development in the urban area.The model attempts to understand the interactions of potential tourists,tourist arrival rate,re-visitation and the effectiveness of advitisement and the word of mouth with the assumption that there is no environmental capacity of the urban tourism destination.It has been found out that urban tourism destination with only one product can easily generate the life cycle pattern.The parameters,such as the scale of potential tourists,the effectiveness of the word mouth,or the effectiveness of the promotional program do not affect the patterns of the destination behaviour although the rate of change can be different.But when the city becomes dynamic and innovative and a proper supply chain of new tourism products is maintained,therefore the re-visitation rate increases,the tourism development of the urban destination can sustainablely grow.
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Received: 30 September 2004
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2005, Vol. 20 
