|
|
|
| A SIMULATION STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF TOURISM URBANIZATION ON COMMON WEALTH: A CASE STUDY OF WULING MOUNTAIN AREA, HUNAN PROVINCE |
| TANG Jian-xiong, SHAN Ying-ying |
| College of Toursim, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract High-quality development is the primary task of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way, and achieving common prosperity in an all-round way is the vision of action to promote high-quality development. In order to investigate the impact of tourism urbanization on regional common prosperity, based on the data of 34 counties in Wulingshan Area of Hunan Province from 2011 to 2021, combined with the system dynamic model, this paper constructs a prediction model of tourism urbanization driving regional common prosperity, and simulates and predicts the impact of tourism urbanization on regional common prosperity in Wulingshan Area of Hunan Province from 2022 to 2035 under five different scenarios. The research results show that:1) The historical test proves that the model simulation effect is good and operable; 2) The system dynamics model was used to simulate the representative indicators of the industrial economy subsystem, social development subsystem and environmental protection subsystem, and the results showed that the indicators of the impact of tourism urbanization on the development of regional common prosperity were improved to varying degrees. 3) In the scenario setting, the impact of different influencing factors on regional common prosperity is different, among which the simulation results of scenario 5 collaborative development model are the best, which takes into account the coordinated development of industrial economy, social culture and environmental protection.
|
|
Received: 20 March 2023
|
|
|
|
Corresponding Authors:
10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2024.02.017
E-mail: 2811915246@qq.com
|
|
|
|
| [1] |
文丰安.基于共同富裕的新型城镇化之路:重要性、障碍及实现路径[J].山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2022,25(6):1-10.[Wen Fen-gan. The road of new urbanization based on common prosperity:Im-portance, obstacles and realization path[J]. Journal of Shandong University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2022,25(6):1-10.]
|
| [2] |
任保平,李禹墨.新时代我国高质量发展评判体系的构建及其转型路径[J].陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018,47(3):105-113.[Ren Baoping, Li Yumo. The construction of China's high qual-ity development evaluation system and its transformation path in the new era[J]. Journal of Shaanxi Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2018,47(3):105-113.]
|
| [3] |
高苹,席建超,刘盛和.旅游城镇化空间过程及其动力机制研究:重庆市黄水镇案例实证[J].人文地理,2020,35(1):104-113.[Gao Ping, Xi Jianchao, Liu Shenghe. Study on the spatial process of tourism ur-banization and its dynamic mechanism:A case of Huangshui Town in Chongqing[J]. Human Geography, 2020,35(1):104-113.]
|
| [4] |
Keesing F, Ostfeld R S, Okanga S, et al. Consequences of integrat-ing livestock and wildlife in an African savanna[J]. Nature Sustain-ability, 2018,1(10):566-573.
|
| [5] |
翁钢民,唐亦博,宋娜,等.京津冀城市群旅游城镇化与影响因素研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2022,38(5):121-128.[Weng Gangmin, Tang Yibo, Song Na, et al. Research on tourism urbanization and in-fluencing factors in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei urban agglomeration[J]. Geography and Geo information Science, 2022,38(5):121-128.]
|
| [6] |
陆林,葛敬炳.旅游城市化研究进展及启示[J].地理研究,2006,25(4):741-750.[Lu Lin, Ge Jingbing. Reflection on the research progress of tourism urbanization[J]. Geographical Research, 2006, 25(4):741-750.]
|
| [7] |
Mullins P. Tourism urbanization[J]. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,1991,15(3):326-342.
|
| [8] |
黄震方,吴江,侯国林.关于旅游城市化问题初步探讨:以长江三角洲都市连绵区为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2000,9(2):160-165.[Huang Zhenfang, Wu Jiang, Hou Guolin. A preliminary discussion on tourism urbanization:Taking the Yangtze River Delta as an ex-ample[J]. Resources and Environment of the Yangtze River Basin, 2000,9(2):160-165.]
|
| [9] |
葛敬炳,陆林,凌善金.丽江市旅游城市化特征及机理分析[J].地理科学,2009,29(1):134-140.[Ge Jingbing, Lu Lin, Ling Shanjin. Characteristics and mechanism of tourism urbanization of lijiang city[J]. Geographica Sinica, 2009,29(1):134-140.]
|
| [10] |
刘敏,刘爱利,孙琼,等.国内外旅游城镇化研究进展[J].人文地理, 2015,30(6):13-18.[Liu Min, Liu Aili, Sun Qiong, et al. Review of tourism urbanization[J]. Human Geography, 2015,30(6):13-18.]
|
| [11] |
熊建新,王文辉,贺赛花,等.洞庭湖区旅游城镇化的时空分异及演化[J].经济地理,2020,40(5):210-219.[Xiong Jianxin, Wang Wen-hui, He Saihua, et al. Spatial-temporal differentiation and evolution of tourism urbanization in Dongting Lake area[J]. Economic Geog-raphy, 2020,40(5):13-18.]
|
| [12] |
麻学锋,于美琪.区域旅游城镇化高质量发展水平测度及驱动因素分析:以大湘西地区为例[J].资源开发与市场,2022,38(11):1321-1330.[Ma Xuefeng,Yu Meiqi. Measurement and driving fac-tors analysis of high-quality development level of regional tourism urbanization:A case study of western Hunan region[J]. Resources Development and Market, 2022,38(11):1321-1330.]
|
| [13] |
Nguyen C P, Schinckus C, Su T D, et al. The influence of tourism on income inequality[J]. Journal of Travel Research, 2020, 60(7):1426-1444.
|
| [14] |
张东徽,吴昊,吴畏,等.冰雪旅游与区域共同富裕:基于东北6市面板数据的实证研究[J].科学决策,2022,31(8):136-149.[Zhang Donghui, Wu Hao, Wu Wei, et al. Ice and snow tourism and re-gional common prosperity:An empirical study based on panel data of 6 cities in Northeast China[J]. Science Decision, 2022,31(8):136-149.]
|
| [15] |
Md. S A, Sudharshan R P. The impact of tourism on income in-equality in developing economies:Does Kuznets curve hypothesis exist?[J]. Annals of Tourism Research, 2016,6(1):111-126.
|
| [16] |
郭为,王静,李承哲,等.不患寡而患不均乎:发展旅游能促进共同富裕吗?基于CFPS (2010-2018)数据的分析[J].旅游学刊,2022, 37(10):12-25.[Guo Wei, Wang Jing, Li Chengzhe, et al. Uneven rather than few:Can tourism promote common prosperity?Analy-sis based on CFPS (2010-2018) data[J]. Tourism Journal, 2022, 37(10):12-25.]
|
| [17] |
夏杰长,姚战琪,张雅俊.服务业高质量发展助力共同富裕:基于浙江省的经验[J].中国流通经济,2022,36(12):9-26.[Xia Jiechang, Yao Zhanqi, Zhang Yajun. High-quality development of severice in-dustry to promote common prosperity:Based on the experience of Zhejiang Province[J]. China Circulation Economy, 2022,36(12):9-26.]
|
| [18] |
Panudulkitti P. How does the level of urbanization matter for pov-erty reduction[J]. Working Paper, Georgia State University, 2007, 22(6):21-26.
|
| [19] |
孙学涛,于婷,于法稳.新型城镇化对共同富裕的影响及其作用机制:基于中国281个城市的分析[J].广东财经大学学报,2022, 37(2):71-87.[Sun Xuetao, Yu Ting, Yu Fawen. The impact and mechanism of new urbanization on common prosperity:Based on the 281 cities in China[J]. Journal of Guangdong Unversity of Fi-nance and Economics, 2022,37(2):71-87.]
|
| [20] |
赵燕.要素配置促进共同富裕?基于土地城镇化与城乡收入差距视角[J].云南财经大学学报,2022,38(11):22-41.[Zhao Yan. Can factor allocation promote common prosperity?Based on the per-spective of land urbanization and urban-rural income gap[J]. Jour-nal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, 2022,38(11):22-41.]
|
| [21] |
麻学锋,吕逸翔.张家界城镇居民幸福水平对旅游城镇化集聚的响应识别及测度[J].自然资源学报,2020,35(7):1647-1658.[Ma Xuefeng, Lv Yixiang. Identification and measurement of the re-sponse of happiness level of urban residents in Zhangjiajie to tour-ism urbanization agglomeration[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020,35(7):1647-1658.]
|
| [22] |
王树.第二次人口红利与经济增长:理论渊源、作用机制与数值模拟[J].人口研究,2021,45(1):82-97.[Wang Shu. The second demo-graphic dividend and economic growth:Theoertial origin, mencha-nism and me-numerical simulation[J]. Population Research, 2021, 45(1):82-97.]
|
| [23] |
赵丽琴,李琳,王天娇.我国新型城镇化对共同富裕的政策效应研究[J].经济问题, 2023, 52(2):120-128.[Zhao Liqin, Li Lin, Wang Tianjiao. Research on the policy effect of China's new urbanization on common prosperity[J]. Economic Issues, 2023,52(2):120-128.]
|
| [24] |
陕颖颖,唐健雄,刘雨靖.旅游城镇化与乡村振兴的协调发展仿真研究:以张家界市为例[J].湖南师范大学自然科学学报,2022, 45(4):55-65.[Shan Yingying, Tang Jianxiong, Liu Yujing. Simula-tion study on the coordinated development of tourism urbanization and rural revitalization:A case study of Zhangjiajie city[J]. Journal of Natural Sciences of Hunan Normal University, 2022, 45(4):55-65.]
|
| [25] |
杜文忠,席玮,杜金波.基于SD的旅游可持续发展仿真研究:以桂林为例[J].生态经济, 2020, 36(12):104-111.[Du Wenzhong, Xi Wei, Du Jinbo. SD-based simulation study of sustainable tourism develpoment Guilin as an example[J]. Ecological Economy, 2020, 36(12):104-111.]
|
| [26] |
张锦华,龚钰涵.走向共同富裕:农民工市民化的财政学考察:基于系统动力学建模及政策优化仿真[J].南方经济,2022,39(5):14-28.[Zhang Jinhua, Gong Yuhan. Towards common prosperity:A fiscal examination of the citizenship of migrant workers:Based on system dynamics modeling and policy optimiza simulation[J]. Southern Economy, 2022,39(5):14-28.]
|
| [27] |
赵书虹,陈婷婷.云南省旅游驱动型城市旅游产业与城镇化耦合协调驱动因素分析[J].旅游科学,2020,34(3):78-93.[Zhao Shuhong, Chen Tingting. Analysis of coupling and coordination driving factors of tourism industry and urbanization in tourism driven cities in Yunnan province[J]. Tourism Science, 2020,34(3):78-93.]
|
| [28] |
赵胡兰,杨兆萍,韩芳等.新疆旅游产业-经济发展-生态环境耦合态势分析及预测[J].干旱区地理,2020,43(4):1146-1154.[Zhao Hulan, Yang Zhaoping, Han Fang, et al. Analysis and prediction of coupled tourism industry-economic development-ecological envi-ronment in Xinjiang[J]. Geography of Arid Regions, 2020, 43(4):1146-1154.]
|
| [29] |
张俊,程励.旅游发展与居民幸福:基于系统动力学视角[J].旅游学刊,2019,34(8):12-24.[Zhang Jun, Cheng Li. Tourism develop-ment and residents'happiness:Based on the perspective of system dynamics[J]. Tourism Journal, 2019,34(8):12-24.]
|
| [30] |
唐健雄,李奥莎,刘雨婧.旅游城镇化驱动乡村振兴的影响效应研究[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2023,11(1):174-185.[Tang Jianxiong, Li Aosa, Liu Yujing. Research on the effect of tourism urbanization driving rural revitalization[J]. Journal of Huazhong ag-ricultural University (Social Science Edition), 2023,11(1):174-185.]
|
| [31] |
潘静,李文芳.基于VAR模型教育水平与经济增长的动态关系[J].特区经济,2022,42(7):137-140.[Pan Jing, Li Wenfang. Research on the dynamic relationship between education level and economic grow on the dynamic relationship between education level and eco-nomic growth based on VAR model[J]. Special Economic Zone, 2022,42(7):137-140.]
|
| [32] |
高丙成,陈如平.普通高中教育综合发展水平研究[J].教育研究, 2013,34(9):58-66.[Gao Bingcheng, Chen Ruping. Research on the comprehensive development level of general high school education in China[J]. Education Research, 2013,34(9):58-66.]
|
| [33] |
李鹏,李晨阳,沈梦婷,等.自然保护地旅游承载力多情景核算:以云南泸沽湖为例[J].资源科学,2022,44(3):620-633.[Li Peng, Li Chenyang, Shen Mengting, et al. Multi-scenario accounting of tour-sim carrying capacity of nature reserves:A case study of Lugu Lake in Yunnan[J]. Resources Science, 2022,44(3):620-633.]
|
|
|
|
2024, Vol. 39 
