|
|
PATTERNS AND DRIVERS OF MILITARY TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER NETWORKS IN COUNTRIES (REGIONS) ALONG THE BELT AND ROAD: MILITARY WEAPONS AND EQUIPMENT AS AN EXAMPLE |
GUO Wei-dong1,2,3, DU De-bin1,2,3 |
1. Institute for Global Innovation and Development, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China; 2. Center for World Geography and Geo-Strategic Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China; 3. School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China |
|
|
Abstract This paper utilizes the Stockholm Institute's arms transfer data and the World Bank's database, adopts network analysis and negative binomial regression and other methods to study the pattern and driving factors of the military technology transfer network along the B&R, and analyzes the influence of the US, and the study finds that:First, the scale of military technology transfer from countries (regions) along the B&R is on a rising trend. Secondly, the military technology transfer network has obvious polarization characteristics and core-marginal structure; Third, Russia is the absolute leader of the largest flow network of military technology transfer, but the network influence and control is on a decreasing trend, and the network influence of China and Turkey is improving significantly. Fourth, the scale of military science and technology transfer from the United States to countries (regions) along B&R Initiative has increased rapidly by 1.52 times, the increasing penetration of military influence into China's neighbourhood and the spatial layout of the militarytechnical transfer is consistent with the scope of Spearman's Rimland theory and creates a posture of encirclement of China. Fifth,Geographical distance, economic and trade relations, geopolitical relations, science and technology innovation capacity, national development level, capital investment, resource endowment and political stability have significant effects on the scale of military technology transfer through the transferring country.
|
Received: 11 April 2023
|
|
|
|
|
[1] |
秦磊. 论军事技术国际转移[D]. 长沙:国防科技大学, 2007:7-8. [Qin Lei. A Study on International Transfer of Military Technology [D]. Changsha: National University of Defense Technology, 2007:7-8.]
|
[2] |
杜德斌, 易鑫磊, 马亚华, 等.心脏地带理论与俄乌冲突[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 36(4):1-15. [Du Debin, Yi Xinlei, Ma Yahua, et al. The "heartland theory" and the Russia-Ukraine conflict[J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 36(4):1-15.]
|
[3] |
张兴伦, 王光霞.基于武器贸易数据的地缘军事态势分析[J]. 地域研究与开发, 2020, 39(3):1-5, 12. [Zhang Xinglun, Wang Guangxia. Geo-military situation analysis based on arms trade data[J]. Areal Research and Development, 2020, 39(3):1-5, 12.]
|
[4] |
史本叶. 俄罗斯武器出口面临的挑战及应对措施[J]. 东北亚论坛, 2016, 25(2):114-126, 128. [Shi Benye.The challenges and countermeasures of the Russian arms trade[J]. Northeast Asia Forum, 2016, 25(2), 114-126, 128]
|
[5] |
安年科夫, 伊万诺夫, 科鲁格洛夫, 等.国际关系中的军事力量[M]. 北京:金城出版社, 2013:22-27. [Annenkov, Livanov, Kruglov, et al. Military Force in International Relational[M]. Beijing: Gold Wall Press, 2013:22-27.]
|
[6] |
李大光.颠覆性技术将对国防安全产生深刻影响[J]. 国防科技工业, 2020(2):50-53. [Li Daguang. Disruptive technologies will have a profound impact on defense security[J]. Defence Science & Technology Industry, 2020(2):50-53.]
|
[7] |
刘大庆, 白玲, 郗笃刚, 等. 全球地缘政治格局力量结构演变研究——基于社会网络分析法[J]. 世界地理研究, 2018, 27(1):12-21. [Liu Daqing, Bai Ling, Xi Dugang, et al. The force structure evolution of global geopolitical pattern[J]. World Regional Studies, 2018, 27(1):12-21]
|
[8] |
宋长青, 葛岳静, 刘云刚, 等.从地缘关系视角解析“一带一路”的行动路径[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(1):3-19. [Song Changqing, Ge Yuejing, Liu Yungang, et al. Undertaking research on Belt and Road Initiative from the geo-relation perspective[J]. Geographical Research, 2018, 37(1):3-19.]
|
[9] |
秦奇, 吴良, 李飞, 等.基于社会网络分析的东南亚地缘关系研究[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(10):2014-2030. [Qin Qi, Wu Liang, Li Fei, et al. A social-network-based study on geo-relations in Southeast Asia[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(10):2014-2030.]
|
[10] |
王鑫静, 姜炎鹏, 马仁锋.域外国家与南海周边地缘经济联系强度演化与态势评估[J]. 地理研究, 2022, 41(3):681-697. [Wang Xinjing, Jiang Yanpeng, Ma Renfeng. The evolution and situation assessment of geo-economic linkages intensity between countries outside the region and the surrounding regions of The South China Sea [J]. Geographical Research, 2022, 41(3):681-697.]
|
[11] |
李萌, 袁文, 袁武, 等.基于新闻大数据的北极地区地缘关系研究[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(5):1090-1104. [Li Meng, Yuan Wen, Yuan Wu, et al. Big data analysis on geographical relationship of the Arctic based on news reports[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(5):1090-1104.]
|
[12] |
陈小强, 袁丽华, 沈石, 等.中国及其周边国家间地缘关系解析[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(8):1534-1547. [Chen Xiaoqiang, Yuan Lihua, Shen Shi, et al.Analysis of the geo-relationships between China and its neighboring countries[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(8):1534-1547.]
|
[13] |
王丰龙.地缘环境评估中的尺度陷阱[J]. 人文地理, 2022, 37(2):24-30. [Wang Fenglong. Scalar traps in assessment of geo-setting[J]. Human Geography, 2022, 37(2):24-30.]
|
[14] |
杨文龙, 游小珺, 杜德斌.商品贸易网络视角下地缘经济系统的属性与功能演进[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(2):356-372. [Yang Wenlong, You Xiaojun, Du Debin. The evolutionary properconnections and functions of the geo-economic system from the perspective of global commodity trade network[J]. Geographical Research, 2021, 40(2):356-372.].
|
[15] |
彭飞, 李淑琴.基于事件数据的南海周边主要国家地缘关系演化分析[J]. 热带地理, 2022, 42(7):1061-1072. [Peng Fei, Li Shuqin. Evolution of the geo-relations between major countries around the South Shina Sea based on event data analysis[J]. Tropical Geography, 2022, 42(7):1061-1072.]
|
[16] |
王丰龙, 司月芳, 傅行行, 等.谁是我们的朋友,谁是我们的“敌人”? ——基于联合国投票的中国地缘政治准则研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(2):252-263. [Wang Fenglong, Si Yuefang, Fu Xing xing, et al. Who are our friends and who are our "enemies"? A quantitative analysis of China's geopolitical codes based on the UN votes[J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(2):252-263.]
|
[17] |
刘大庆, 白玲, 张宏, 等.全球地缘政治格局演变的动力机制——基于变量与变量关系的解析[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(2):391-403. [Liu Daqing, Bai Ling, Zhang Hong, et al. Dynamic mechanism in global geopolitical pattern evolution: Analysis based on variables and variable relationship[J]. Geographical Research, 2018, 37(2):391-403.]
|
[18] |
段德忠, 杜德斌.科技地缘政治:从现实到理论——关于地理学加强科技地缘政治研究的思考[J]. 地理科学, 2023, 43(1):20-30. [Duan Dezhong, Du Debin. Geopolitics of science and technology (S&T): From reality to theory Some thoughts on strengthening the research on geopolitics of S&T by geography[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2023, 43(1):20-30.]
|
[19] |
赵亚博, 葛岳静, 潘峰华, 等.人民币国际化及其对币缘政治的影响[J]. 人文地理, 2017, 32(1):132-137. [Zhao Yabo, Ge Yuejing, Pan Fenghua, et al. The internationalization of renminbiation and its impact on the currency politics[J]. Human Geography, 2017, 32(1):132-137.]
|
[20] |
胡志丁, 杜德斌.日本德川幕府时期的地缘环境分析——兼论国别地缘环境分析框架[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(10):2047-2060. [Hu Zhiding, Du Debin. An investigation of Japanese geo-setting during the period of TokugawaBakufu: A tentative examination of the analytical framework for geo-setting[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(10):2047-2060.]
|
[21] |
潘峰华, 赖志勇, 葛岳静.社会网络分析方法在地缘政治领域的应用[J]. 经济地理, 2013, 33(7):15-21. [Pan Fenghua, Lai Zhiyong, Ge Yuejing. Social network analysis in geo-politics studies[J]. Economic Geography, 2013, 33(7):15-21.]
|
[22] |
刘卫东“. 一带一路”:引领包容性全球化[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 2017, 32(4): 331-339. [Liu Weidong. Inclusive globalization: New philosophy of China's Belt and Road initiative[J]. Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2017, 32(4):331-339.]
|
[23] |
The World Bank. Belt and Road economics: opportunities and risks of transport corridors[M]. Washington: The World Bank, 2019:9.
|
[24] |
杜德斌, 马亚华“. 一带一路”:中华民族复兴的地缘大战略[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(6): 1005-1014. [Du Debin, Ma Yahua. One Belt and One Road: The grand geo-strategy of China's rise[J]. Geographical Research, 2015, 34(6):1005-1014.]
|
[25] |
Barabasi A L, Albert R. Emergence of scaling in random networks [J]. Science, 1999, 86(15):509-512.
|
[26] |
Nystuen J D, Dacey M F. A graph theory interpretation of nodal regions[J]. Journal of Regional Science, 1961, 7(1):29-42.
|
[27] |
杨文龙, 杜德斌, 马亚华.经济权力视角下中美战略均势的地理透视[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(10):1901-1914. [Yang Wenlong, Du Debin, Ma Yahua. A geographical perspective on the Sino-U.S. strategic balance of economic Power[J]. Geographical Research, 2017, 36(10):1901-1914.]
|
[28] |
Boschma R. Proximity and innovation: A critical assessment[J]. Regional Studies, 2005, 39(1):61-74.
|
[29] |
Yang C H. Determinants of China's arms exports: A political economy perspective[J]. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 2019(3):1-19.
|
[30] |
杜德斌, 马亚华“. 一带一路”——全球治理模式的新探索[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(7):1203-1209. [Du Debin, Ma Yahua. One Belt and One Road:A new way of global governance[J]. Geographical Research, 2017, 36(7):1203-1209.]
|
|
|
|