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| STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON THIRTY YEARS' INTERACTION OF INTERNATIONAL “TRADE, TRANSPORT AND TOURISM” |
| DU Mei-ling, SUN Gen-nian |
| College of Tourism & Environment Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, China |
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Abstract In the context of economic globalization, interaction of international "trade, transport and tourism" (3T) grows increasingly crucial. In this paper, the development processes and temporal synchronization of international trade, transport and tourism are analyzed using the relevant statistical data of 1982-2011. Based on this, the correlations between and among 3T are studied from the perspectives of both import and export. Moreover, three groups of, in total twelve, regression equations are built between international trade and transport, international tourism and transport and international trade and tourism by means of statistical analysis. And the results are as follows:1) International trade, transport and tourism have kept growing constantly in the 30 years, reflecting the increasing importance of international trade and tourism and growingly active mobility of persons and cargos in the context of globalization; 2) International trade, transport and tourism have developed synchronously within the three decades, whose undulation periods are with the same rises and falls. Among them, interconnection of transport plays a role as the material basis to promote trade of goods and transfer of people; 3) The decisive coefficients R2 of the three groups of and in total twelve regression equations are all above 0.99, which indicates the significant correlations between and among international trade, transport and tourism. The relationship between international freight transport and trade and that between international passenger transport and tourism are definitively direct causal relations. This paper presents the international "trade-transportation-tourism" (3T) interactive conceptual model, providing a theoretical basis for the development of tourism in China. From the perspective of the relationship between international tourism and international trade, China should focus on broader bilateral tourism and trade markets, paying attention to the inbound tourism markets of neighboring counties.
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Received: 20 June 2014
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2015, Vol. 30 
