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| THE ANALYSIS ON THE EVOLUTION STATE OF MAN-LAND RELATIONSHIP AND THE DYNAMIC PREDICTION IN XI'AN |
| SHANG Hai-long, PAN Yu-Jun |
| College of Tourism & Geography Sciences, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China |
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Abstract Understanding the causal feedback link of man-land relationship elements and building quantitative model of man-land system are key points for evaluating the city's coordination state. It is of great significance to discuss the evolution trend of man-land relationship in Xi'an under the background of the construction plan for Guanzhong-Tianshui economic zone. It is on of the key region constructed that are put forward in the outline of 11th five-year plan for development of the west region in China,according to regional economic development theory.Highlighting the role of urban environmental factor in the man-land relationship running system, this paper optimizes the evaluation index system, uses the function between environment and the social-economic development to construct the model of coordinated man-land relationship, and does quantitative analysis on the levels and types of the coordination state of the man-land relationship in Xi'an since the implementation of the strategy of western development. The results show that the evolution of the area's man-land relationship coordination state has six development stages, including moderate disorders, mild disorders, barely coordination, primary coordination, intermediate coordination and good coordination. At present, man-land relationship of Xi'an is in a positive cycle of coordination development and environment lag type, and a declining trend has emerged since 2009. This paper further predicts sequence of analog values between the region's total population and the amount of cultivated land in the follow-up 10 years through the gray model GM (1, 1). The analysis shows that in the coming ten years, the total population of Xi'an would increase by 13.99‰ per year, cultivated land would decrease by 14.30‰ per year, and the ecological balance and environmental protection would be faced with serious challenge.
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Received: 26 December 2011
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2013, Vol. 28 
