促进还是抑制：中国对非直接投资的对外援助效应

王茂军; 邵静; 周小利; 曹田敏达; 张星

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2020.01.008

PDF(7066 KB)

人文地理 ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1) : 63-75. DOI: 10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2020.01.008

经济

促进还是抑制：中国对非直接投资的对外援助效应

王茂军, 邵静, 周小利, 曹田敏达, 张星

作者信息 +

PROMOTING OR SUPPRESSING: CHINA'S FOREIGN AID EFFECT ON FDI IN AFRICA

WANG Mao-jun, SHAO Jing, ZHOU Xiao-li, CAO Tian-minda, ZHANG Xing

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

论文聚焦中国对非援助与对非直接投资的不确定性关系，将援助细分为社会基础设施援助、实物资本援助、经济基础设施援助、政府和民间社会援助四种类型，构建了援助与投资的解析模型；基于中国对非洲52个国家的援助项目数和直接投资项目数，利用分位数回归方法，分别考察了中国对非援助项目总量及各类型援助在对非直接投资项目中的作用。研究发现：①中国对非援助集中在东非、南非，援助项目总数、各类型援助项目数、对非直接投资项目的空间分布具有很高的相似性。②中国对非援助类型结构相对均衡，对非援助在中国对非直接投资中发挥着先锋促进效应。其中，经济基础设施援助的促进效应强劲、稳定，且强度随分位数提高有浅U型变动特征；实物资本援助、社会基础设施援助的促进作用分别在对非直接投资项目少、中等数量下促进效果显著；政府和民间援助的促进作用不显著。③友好城市关系、出口关系与双边政治关系分别仅在中国对非直接投资项目较少、中等规模、大规模情形下显著，空间关系的影响不显著。④受援国人口规模的促进影响最清晰、最稳健；成本规避、资源寻求、受援国的投资环境质量和腐败状况的影响尚不清晰。中国在非投资有追随他国投资区位的倾向，但这一倾向仅在经济基础设施模型中显著。

Abstract

This paper focuses on the uncertain relationship between China's aid and foreign direct investment to Africa by constructing an analytical model, in which the aid is divided into four types:social infrastructure, physical, economic infrastructure, and governmental & civil assistance. Based on the numbers of projects of China's aid and direct investment to 52 African countries, a quantile regression method is used to evaluate the roles played by total aid and various aid types respectively in China's investment activities at Africa. The results are as follows:1) China's aid to Africa is mainly concentrated in East Africa and South Africa; And there exist high degrees of similarity between the spatial distribution of total aid, various aid, and foreign direct investment to Arica. 2)The structure of China's aid to Africa is relatively balanced, and the aid plays a vanguard promoting role in China's direct investment in Africa; Furthermore, different types of aid programs have different effects. 3) Friendly inter-city relations, export relations and bilateral political relationships have a significant effect on China's direct investment when the numbers of investment projects from China are small, medium and large in sequence,respectively. However, the impact of the spatial relationships between China and African countries are not significant. 4) The promotion effect is the clearest and most robust in terms of population of recipient countries, while the effect of cost-avoidance, resource seeking, the conditions of the investment environment and governmental corruption is unclear.

导出引用

王茂军, 邵静, 周小利, 曹田敏达, 张星. 促进还是抑制：中国对非直接投资的对外援助效应[J]. 人文地理. 2020, 35(1): 63-75 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2020.01.008

WANG Mao-jun, SHAO Jing, ZHOU Xiao-li, CAO Tian-minda, ZHANG Xing. PROMOTING OR SUPPRESSING: CHINA'S FOREIGN AID EFFECT ON FDI IN AFRICA[J]. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY. 2020, 35(1): 63-75 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2020.01.008

中图分类号： K901

参考文献

[1] Quazi, R M, Michael F. Williams, et at. Impact of foreign aid on foreign direct investment in South Asia and East Asia[J]. International Business Research, 2014,7(12):44-52.
[2] Anyanwu J C. Why does foreign firect investment go where it goes? New evidence from african countries[J]. Annals of Economics and Finance, 2012,13(2):425-462.
[3] Yasin M. Official development assistance and foreign direct investment flows to Sub-saharan Africa[J]. African Development Review, 2005,17(1):23-40.
[4] Selaya P, Sunesen E R. Does foreign aid increase foreign direct investment[J]. World Development, 2012,40(11):2155-2176.
[5] 张汉林,袁佳,孔洋.中国对非洲ODA与FDI关联度研究[J].世界经济研究,2010(11):69-74,89.[Zhang Hanlin, Yuan Jia, Kong Yang. A study on the linkage between China's ODA and FDI to Africa[J]. World Economy Study, 2010(11):69-74,89.]
[6] Sanfilippo M. Chinese FDI to Africa:What is the nexus with foreign economic cooperation?[J]. African Development Review, 2010, 22(Supplement 1):599-614.
[7] 胡兵,丁祥平,邓富华.中国对非援助能否推动对非投资[J].当代经济研究,2015(1):67-73.[Hu Bing, Ding Xiangping, Deng Fuhua. Whether China's aid to Africa can promote investment in Africa[J]. Contemporary Economic Research, 2015(1):67-73.]
[8] Harms P, Lutz M. Aid, governance and private foreign investment:Some puzzling findings for the 1990s[J]. Economic Journal, 2006, 116(513):773-790.
[9] 木村秀美,戸堂康之.開発援助は直接投資の先兵か?-重力モデルによる推計[J]. RIETI Discussion Paper, 2007(3):1-37.
[10] Mody A, Sadka E, Razin A. The role of information in driving FDI Flows:Host-country transparency and source-country specialization[J]. NBER Working Paper, 2003,3(148):1-37.
[11] Kosack S, Tobin J. Funding self-sustaining development:The role of aid, FDI and, government in economic success[J]. International Organization, 2006,60(1):205-243.
[12] Kimura H, Todo Y. Is foreign aid a vanguard of foreign direct investment? A gravity-equation approach[J]. World Development, 2010,38(4):82-97.
[13] Kang S J, Lee H, Park B. Does Korea follow Japan in foreign aid? Relationships between aid and foreign investment[J]. Japan and the World Economy, 2011,23(1):19-27.
[14] Asiedu E, Jin Y, Nandwa B. Does foreign aid mitigate the adverse effect of expropriation risk on foreign direct investment?[J]. Journal of International Economics, 2009,78(2):268-275.
[15] Garriga A C, Phillips B J. Foreign aid as a signal to investors[J]. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2014,58(2):280-306.
[16] Dalgaard C J, Olsson O. Windfall Gains, Political economy and economic development[J]. Working Papers in Economics, 2006,17(223):72-109.
[17] Svensson J. Foreign aid and. rent-seeking[J]. Journal of International Economics, 2000,51(2):437-461.
[18] Arellano C, Bulír A, Lane T, et al. The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 2009,88(1):87-102.
[19] Alesina A, Weder B. Do corrupt governments receive less foreign aid?[J]. American Economic Review, 2002,92(4):1126-1137.
[20] Easterly, W. Can foreign aid buy growth[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2003,17(3):23-48.
[21] Easterly W. The cartel of good intentions:Bureaucracy S. Markets in foreign aid[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2007,81(131):40-49.
[22] Djankov S, Garciamontalvo J, Reynalquerol M. Does foreign aid help?[J]. SSRN Electronic Journal, 2006,26(1):1-28.
[23] Karakaplan U. M, Neyapti B, and Sayek S. Aid and foreign direct investment:International evidence[J]. Turkish Economic Association Discussion Paper, Bilkent University Discussion paper, 2005,5(5):1-31.
[24] Kapfer S, Nielsen R, Nielson D. If you build it, will they come? Foreign Aid's Effects on Foreign Direct Investment[Z]. Paper for the 65thMPSA National Conference, 2007:1-30.
[25] 王逸汇.官方发展援助对FDI流入是否有促进作用[D].上海:复旦大学,2012:12.[Wang Yihui. Whether oda can promote FDI inflow or not[D]. Shanghai:Fudan University, 2012:12.]
[26] 王翚,甘小军,刘超.国际双边发展援助对FDI的影响研究——基于17个OECD国家对华发展援助的实证[J].国际贸易问题,2013(6):115-123.[Wang Hui, Gan Xiaojun, Liu Chao. Impact of international bilateral development aid on China's FDI:An empirical test on 17 OECD countries[J]. Journal of International Trade, 2013(6):115-123.]
[27] Albiman M M. Relationships among Foreign Aid, Foreign Direct Investment, and Economic Growth in East African Community Members[D]. Kuala Lumpur:University Putra Malaysia, 2013:1-150.
[28] Carro M, Larrú, José María. Flowing together or flowing apart:An analysis of the relation between FDI and ODA flows to Argentina and Brazil[Z]. MPRA Paper, 2010.
[29] Bhavan T C, Changsheng X, Chunping Z. The relationship between foreign aid and FDI in South Asian economies[J]. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2011,3(2):143-149.
[30] Amusa K, Monkam N, Viegi N. Foreign aid and foreign direct investment in Sub-Saharan Africa:A panel data analysis[Z]. ERSA Working Papers 612, 2016:1-23.
[31] 王翚,甘小军.官方发展援助影响FDI的理论分析与实证检验——基于结构视角[J].国际经贸探索,2014,30(3):32-43.[Wang Hui, Gan Xiaojun. Theoretical analysis and empirical test of the impact of official development aid on FDI based on the perspective of structure[J]. International Economics and Trade Research, 2014,30(3):32-43.]
[32] Addison T, Baliamoune-Lutz M. The effects of aid on foreign direct investment in africa and other regions[Z]. Social Sciences Association, 2016:1-25.
[33] Blonigen B A, Piger J. Determinants of foreign direct investment[J]. Canadian Journal of Economics, 2014,47(3):775-812.
[34] Alexander H. Is foreign aid really a precondition for foreign direct investment? A review of Kimura and Todos (2010):"Is foreign aid a vanguard of foreign direct investment?"[Z]. Seminar Paper for the Webinar on "Factor Flows in Globalization:2016:2-19.
[35] Dollar D, Easterly W. The search for the key:Aid, investment and policies in Africa[J]. Policy Research Working Paper, 1999,8(4):546-577.
[36] Arazmuradov A. Foreign aid, foreign direct investment and domestic investment nexus in landlocked economies of Central Asia[J]. Economic Research Guardian, 2012,2(1):129-151.
[37] 王翚,雷鹏飞,甘小军.官方发展援助对FDI的影响效果研究——基于包含制度变量的动态面板模型检验[J].山西财经大学学报, 2014,36(1):13-21.[Wang Hui, Lei Pengfei, Gan Xiaojun. The im-pact of official development aid on FDI:Based on the dynamic panel model with institution variable[J]. Journal of Shanxi Finance and Economics University, 2014,36(1):13-21.]
[38] Blaise. Japanese Aid as a Prerequisite for FDI:The Case of Southeast Asian Countries[J]. Australia-Japan research centre ASIA pacific economic papers 385, 2009:1-33.
[39] Blaise S. On the link between Japanese ODA and FDI in China:A micro-economic evaluation using conditional logit analysis[J]. Applied Economics, 2007,37(1):51-55.
[40] Hien P T. The effects of ODA in infrastructure on FDI inflows in provinces of vietnam 2002-2004[J]. Vietnam Development Forum Working Paper, 2008,89:1-29.
[41] 王茂军,徐永平.中国在美洲OFDI的基本特征与决定因素[J].地理学报,2017,72(8):1373-1391.[Wang Maojun, Xu Yongping. China's OFDI in America:Basic features and determinants[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017,72(8):1373-1391.]
[42] 张建红,姜建刚.双边政治关系对中国对外直接投资的影响研究[J].世界经济与政治,2012(12):133-155,160.[Zhang Jianhong, Jiang Jiangang. The impact of bilateral political relationship on China's outward foreign direct investment[J]. World Economics and Politics, 2012(12):133-155,160.]
[43] 武立东,杨军节.制度距离、双边外交关系和对外直接投资——基于中国宏观数据的实证分析[J].预测,2016,35(3):26-31.[Wu Lidong, Yang Junjie. Institutional distance, bilateral diplomatic relationship and OFDI:An empirical study based on China's macro data[J]. Forecasting, 2016,35(3):26-31.]
[44] Levent T B, Kundak S, Gulumser A A. City-to-city linkages in a mobile society:The role of urban networks in Eurocities and Sister Cities[J]. International Journal of Services Technology and Management, 2008,10(1):83-109.
[45] Egger P, Winner H. How corruption influences foreign direct investment:A panel data study[J]. Economic Development & Cultural Change, 2006,54(2):459-486.
[46] Liu X, Siler P, Wang C, et al. Productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment:Evidence from UK industry level panel data[J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 2000,31(3):407-425.
[47] Mundell R A. International trade and factor mobility[J]. American Economic Review, 1999,47(3):321-335.
[48] 项本武.本国对外直接投资的贸易效应研究——基于面板数据的协整分析[J].财贸经济,2009(4):77-82,137.[Xiang Benwu. Research on trade effect of foreign direct investment in China——Cointegration analysis based on panel data[J]. Finance & Trade Economics, 2009(4):77-82,137.]
[49] Yeung H W C, Liu W D. Globalizing China:The rise of mainland firms in the global economy[J]. Eurasian Geography & Economics, 2008,49(1):57-86.
[50] Morck R, Ye ung B, Zhao M. Perspectives on China's outward foreign direct investment[J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 2008,39(3):337-350.
[51] 王永钦,杜巨澜,王凯.中国对外直接投资区位选择的决定因素:制度、税负和资源禀赋[J]. 经济研究,2014(12):126-142.[Wang Yongqin, Du Julan, Wang Kai. The determinants of location choices of China's ODI:Institutions, taxations and resources[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2014(12):126-142.]
[52] 王碧珺.中国对外直接投资的理论、战略与政策[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2016:48.[Wang Bijun. Theory, Strategy and Policy of China's OFDI[M]. Beijing:Economic Management Press, 2016:48.]
[53] 韦军亮,陈漓高.政治风险对中国对外直接投资的影响——基于动态面板模型的实证研究[J].经济评论,2009(4):106-113.[Wei Junliang, Chen Ligao. The influence of political risk on China's OFDI:An empirical study based on dynamic panel model[J]. Economic Review, 2009(4):106-113.]
[54] 张雨,戴翔.政治风险影响了我国企业"走出去"吗?[J]. 国际经贸探索,2013,29(5):84-93.[Zhang Yu, Dai Xiang. Does political risk affect Chinese enterprises' "going global"?[J]. International Economics and Trade Research, 2013,29(5):84-93.]
[55] Buckley P J, Clegg L J, Cross A R, et al. Erratum:The determinants of Chinese outward foreign direct investment[J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 2007,38(4):499-518.
[56] Wang X, Ozanne A, Hao X. The West's aid dilemma and the Chinese solution[J]. Journal of Chinese Economic & Business Studies, 2014,12(1):47-61.
[57] Wheeler D, Mody A. International investment location decisions:The case of U.S. firms[J]. Journal of International Economics, 1992, 33(1/2):57-76.
[58] Markusen J R, Maskus K E. Discriminating among alternative theories of the multinational enterprise[J]. Review of International Economics, 1999,10(4):694-707.
[59] Asiedu E, Lien D. Democracy, foreign direct investment and natural resources[Z]. Working Papers Series in Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2010,84(1):99-111.
[60] Koenker R, Bassett G. Regression quantiles[J]. Econometrica, 1978, 46(1):33-50.
[61] 董艳,樊此君.援助会促进投资吗——基于中国对非洲援助及直接投资的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2016(3):59-69.[Dong Yan, Fan Cijun. Does financial aid from the Chinese government increase investment from China in Africa? A panel data Study[J]. Journal of International Trade, 2016(3):59-69.]
[62] 项本武.对外直接投资的贸易效应研究——基于中国经验的实证分析[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2006(3):9-15.[Xiang Benwu. The effects of foreign direct investment on international trade based on empirical analysis on China's evidence[J]. Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, 2006(3):9-15.]
[63] 宋维佳,许宏伟.对外直接投资区位选择影响因素研究[J].财经问题研究,2012(10):44-50.[Song Weijia, Xu Hongwei. Research on the influencing factors of OFDE location selection[J]. Research on Financial and Economic Issues, 2012(10):44-50.]