Abstract：Understanding the causal feedback link of man-land relationship elements and building quantitative model of man-land system are key points for evaluating the city's coordination state. It is of great significance to discuss the evolution trend of man-land relationship in Xi'an under the background of the construction plan for Guanzhong-Tianshui economic zone. It is on of the key region constructed that are put forward in the outline of 11th five-year plan for development of the west region in China,according to regional economic development theory.Highlighting the role of urban environmental factor in the man-land relationship running system, this paper optimizes the evaluation index system, uses the function between environment and the social-economic development to construct the model of coordinated man-land relationship, and does quantitative analysis on the levels and types of the coordination state of the man-land relationship in Xi'an since the implementation of the strategy of western development. The results show that the evolution of the area's man-land relationship coordination state has six development stages, including moderate disorders, mild disorders, barely coordination, primary coordination, intermediate coordination and good coordination. At present, man-land relationship of Xi'an is in a positive cycle of coordination development and environment lag type, and a declining trend has emerged since 2009. This paper further predicts sequence of analog values between the region's total population and the amount of cultivated land in the follow-up 10 years through the gray model GM (1, 1). The analysis shows that in the coming ten years, the total population of Xi'an would increase by 13.99‰ per year, cultivated land would decrease by 14.30‰ per year, and the ecological balance and environmental protection would be faced with serious challenge.
尚海龙, 潘玉君. 西安市人地关系协调状态评价及动态预测[J]. 人文地理, 2013, 28(2): 104-110,90.
SHANG Hai-long, PAN Yu-Jun. THE ANALYSIS ON THE EVOLUTION STATE OF MAN-LAND RELATIONSHIP AND THE DYNAMIC PREDICTION IN XI'AN. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2013, 28(2): 104-110,90.
