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| RESEARCH ON TOURIST CARRYING CAPACITY OF SUSTAINABLE TOURISM |
| DAI Xue-jun, DING Deng-shan, LIN Chen |
| Department of Urban and Resources Science, NanJing University, NanJing 210093, China |
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Abstract Applied to the theories and methods of environment sciences, this paper analyses the measurable problems of tourist carrying capacity, and takes some preliminary study on their measures. The authors believe that the measures on tourist carrying capacity should include the following steps. The first, the analysis of tourist environmental background values and base-line values in the current situations. We apply the model of the indexof environmental information flow to attain the total environmental index, and adjust the calculation on A(the spatial scale of tourist resources) on the base of the environmental index, and express the capacity of tourist resources as:Cs=(T)/(t)·(A)/(Ak)·(Ik)/(I);add the coefficient of density sense to measure the capacity of tourist sense, show it as:Cr=K·(T)/(t)·(A)/(Ak)·(Ik)/(I)(K is the coefficient of the density sense);correct the ecological capacity of tourism under the background of ecological capacity indexIe, show it as:Fe=(Ike)/(Ie)·F(Ike is a national standard). The second step, we analyze the impact on tourist environment of tourist activities, including the cumulative effects analysis and the environmental risks analysis. We use interacted matrix law with Delphi technique to do the cumulative effect analysis, draw out L for the cumulative percentage of a tourist zone, and show tourist carrying capacity as:C·(1-L), then calculate the value of all kinds of tourist environmental risks through applying the Fault Tree Analysis or ETA, correct tourist carrying capacity as:(C·Rk)/(R), R(x)=∫0∝ P(x)*D(x)(Rk is standards for risks, namely the acceptable risks standards of tourist zone, P is the probability function of the risk, D is the consequence function of the risk). Lastly, we do the analysis of the Pareto's most appropriate use of tourist resources by applying the Pareto's most appropriate method with the most heavy social welfare functions, to calculate the percentages of tourist resources which can be utilized at this stage, and we can draw out that is the basis which guarantees the sustainable development in this tourist zone, showing it as Cg=((1-L) RkAu)/(RA)???20020608???CiQi. The author thinks that we should do mo re research in the relevant fields and touch on the new challenging opportunities.
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Received: 16 April 2001
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2002, Vol. 17 
