RESEARCH ON TOURISM UNEXPECTED CRISIS ON THE BASIS OF TOURISMBACKGROUND-LINE METHOD (TBLM)——A Case Study of “SARS” Event in 2003
LI Feng1,2, SUN Gen-nian1
1. College of Tourism and Environmental Science, Shaan'xi Normal University, Xi'an 710062, China;
2. Tourism Department of Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China
Abstract The nature of tourism and characteristic of tourism industry determine that tourism unexpected crisis can bring a series of influence to regional tourism industry.The correct analysis and assessment on the influence of tourism unexpected crisis can facilitate making the policy of recovering tourism industry scientifically.At present, the methods to evaluate the influence of tourism unexpected crisis are mainly that:1) subjective experience judgment; 2) time series method. Compared with the tourism-background-line method, the scientific and accuracy of the above two methods are doubtful.In this article, using the tourism-background-line method, the author made a quantitative analysis on the inbound tourism loss which the "SARS" crisis in 2003 had effect on, and drew the following conclusions:1)The total foreign currency loss of inbound tourism is 5.67 billion dollars. Inbound tourism person-time losses amount to 11.64 million. 2)The whole influence cycle of "SARS" to inbound tourism of our country is one year; 3)The tourism unexpected crisis have great impact on customer recourses markets close to our country, but it is very fast to resume. To the remote advanced market, it has also great impact, but recovering is relatively slow.
2006, Vol. 21 
