STUDY ON THE GEOPOLITICAL RISKS OF MAJOR PROJECTS OF ‘THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE’
HONG Ju-hua1,2, LUO Hua-song1,2, LIANG Mao-lin1, ZHU Ru-xia1
1. School of Tourism and Geography Science, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China;
2. Collaborative Innovation Center for Geopolitical Setting of Southwest China and Borderland Development, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
Abstract "The Belt and Road Initiative" has unlimited opportunities and glorious prospects, but at the same time suffering serious geopolitical risks. Geopolitical risk of major projects is the possibility of an adverse consequence for major projects, which is caused by geopolitical factors. Geopolitical risk has many characteristics, including the objectivity, subjectivity, intersubjectivity, uncertainty, consequences severity, pure risks. Paper based on the multi-scale including global, region, state, project, then from the perspectives of geopolitics discusses the influence mechanism of geopolitical risks of major projects. Under the comprehensive research framework with multi-scale, multiple main bodies, multi-factor, constructs an assessment index system of geopolitical risks of major projects. The assessment index system geopolitical risks includs the international geopolitical environment risks, regional geographical environment risks, geopolitical relation risks between the host country and investor country, the investment geopolitical risks of host country, projectlevel geopolitical risks. Then the complex geopolitical risks sources is decomposed into 23 the major independent variables. After the theory research, with China's major projects in Southeast Asia and South Asia for example, researches the geopolitical risks of major projects, and the risk-level is divided into four grades, Philippines, Vietnam, India are the high-risk countries. Through quantitative evaluation, the Myanmar Myitsone hydro-electric dam is belong to high-risk grade. Finally, puts forward the suggestion that we need strengthen the monitoring and early warning of geopolitical risks, to avoid the geopolitical risks of major projects of "the Belt and Road Initiative".
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[13]
刘玉立,葛岳静,胡志丁,等.国际安全研究的转向及对中国地缘安全研究的启示[J].世界地理研究,2013,22(1):12-21.[Liu Yuli,Ge Yuejing,Hu Zhiding,et al.Tendency of international security study and its revelations to geo-security study in China[J].World Regional Studies,2013,22(1):12-21.]
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[16]
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[10]
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[17]
刘云刚,王丰龙.三鹿奶粉事件的尺度政治分析[J].地理学报,2011,66(10):1368-1378.[Liu Yungang,Wang Fenglong.Politics of scale in "Sanlu-Milkpowder Scandal"[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(10):1368-1378.]
[20]
李飞,成升魁,于会录,等.国家地缘脆弱性探索——缅甸案例及对中国地缘战略启示[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(6):737-746.[Li Fei,Cheng Shengkui,Yu Huilu,et al.National geopolitical vulnerability:A Myanmar case and implications for China's geopolitical policy[J].Progress in Geography,2016,35(6):737-746.]
[17]
刘云刚,王丰龙.三鹿奶粉事件的尺度政治分析[J].地理学报,2011,66(10):1368-1378.[Liu Yungang,Wang Fenglong.Politics of scale in "Sanlu-Milkpowder Scandal"[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(10):1368-1378.]
[11]
高学平.地缘政治风险评估方法研究[D].北京:外交学院,2014:1-41.[Gao Xueping.The Assessment Methodology of Geopolitical Risks[D].Beijing:China Foreign Affairs University,2014:1-41.]
[12]
陆俊元.中国安全环境结构:一个地缘政治分析框架[J].人文地理,2010,25(2):140-143.[Lu Junyuan.Analysis of the structures of China's national security environment:A geopolitical framework[J].Human Geography,2010,25(2):140-143.]
[18]
曹阳,焦阳.21世纪初俄罗斯周边地缘政治状况的量化分析[J].东北亚论坛,2004,13(5):67-70.[Cao Yang,Jiao Yang.A quantitative analysis on adjacent geopolitics state of Russia at the beginning of 21st century[J].Northeast Asia Forum,2004,13(5):67-70.]
[18]
曹阳,焦阳.21世纪初俄罗斯周边地缘政治状况的量化分析[J].东北亚论坛,2004,13(5):67-70.[Cao Yang,Jiao Yang.A quantitative analysis on adjacent geopolitics state of Russia at the beginning of 21st century[J].Northeast Asia Forum,2004,13(5):67-70.]
[13]
刘玉立,葛岳静,胡志丁,等.国际安全研究的转向及对中国地缘安全研究的启示[J].世界地理研究,2013,22(1):12-21.[Liu Yuli,Ge Yuejing,Hu Zhiding,et al.Tendency of international security study and its revelations to geo-security study in China[J].World Regional Studies,2013,22(1):12-21.]
[19]
王丰龙,张衔春,杨林川,等.尺度理论视角下的"一带一路"战略解读[J].地理科学,2016,36(4):502-511.[Wang Fenglong,Zhang Xianchun,Yang Linchuan,et al.Rescaling and scalar politics in the "One Belt,One Road" stragy[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(4):502-511.]
[19]
王丰龙,张衔春,杨林川,等.尺度理论视角下的"一带一路"战略解读[J].地理科学,2016,36(4):502-511.[Wang Fenglong,Zhang Xianchun,Yang Linchuan,et al.Rescaling and scalar politics in the "One Belt,One Road" stragy[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(4):502-511.]
[14]
中国出口信用保险公司.国家风险分析报告:"一带一路"沿线国家[M].北京:时事出版社,2015:2-3.[China Export&Credit Insurance Corporation.The Handbook of Country Risk:The Countries Along "One Belt and One Road"[M].Beijing:Current Affairs Press,2015:2-3.]
[20]
李飞,成升魁,于会录,等.国家地缘脆弱性探索——缅甸案例及对中国地缘战略启示[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(6):737-746.[Li Fei,Cheng Shengkui,Yu Huilu,et al.National geopolitical vulnerability:A Myanmar case and implications for China's geopolitical policy[J].Progress in Geography,2016,35(6):737-746.]
[20]
李飞,成升魁,于会录,等.国家地缘脆弱性探索——缅甸案例及对中国地缘战略启示[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(6):737-746.[Li Fei,Cheng Shengkui,Yu Huilu,et al.National geopolitical vulnerability:A Myanmar case and implications for China's geopolitical policy[J].Progress in Geography,2016,35(6):737-746.]
2018, Vol. 33 
