|
|
|
| SIZE COLLAPSE OF THE LARGEST CITIES IN CITY SIZE DISTRIBUTION AND THE INFLUENCING FACTORS |
| WANG Yan-yan1,2,3, SUN Bin-dong1,2,3, ZHANG Ting-lin1,2,3 |
1. Research Center for China Administrative Division, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;
2. Future City Lab, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;
3. School of Geographic Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract Metropolises, especially the largest part of them, play a vital role in the national development. However, in-depth analyses focusing on the relative collapse of the largest cities compared to the overall city size distribution are severely lacking. Based on the population and build-up data of the Global Human Settlement Layers from 1975 to 2015 and applying the unified definition of cities, this paper explores the extent, causes and mechanism of the size collapse of the largest cities in more than 100 countries. The results show that the sizes of the largest cities in a third of the countries in the world are collapsed, that is lower than its simulated value based on the overall city size distribution. With the increase of the largest cities' sizes, the extent of collapse first deceases and then increases as a result of the dynamic equilibrium between agglomeration economy and agglomeration diseconomy. The application of advanced transportation technology can reduce the size collapse extent of the largest cities. But with the continuous growth of city sizes and exceeding the capacity of transportation technology, the collapse extent of the city sizes will be further enhanced. The findings support the hypothesis that the collapse of maximum city size is attributed to the presence of agglomeration diseconomies and constraints from the technological, economic, and managerial capabilities of large cities within a certain period.
|
|
Received: 03 June 2023
|
|
|
|
|
|
| [1] |
余吉祥,周光霞,段玉彬.中国城市规模分布的演进趋势研究——基于全国人口普查数据[J].人口与经济,2013(2):44-52.[Yu Jixiang, Zhou Guangxia, Duan Yubin. The trend of city size distribution in China:Based on census data[J]. Population&Economics, 2013(2):44-52.]
|
| [2] |
唐为.中国城市规模分布体系过于扁平化吗? [J].世界经济文汇, 2016(1):36-51.[Tang Wei. Is China's city size distribution system too flat? [J]. World Economic Papers, 2016(1):36-51.]
|
| [3] |
孙斌栋,王言言,张志强,等.中国城市规模分布的形态和演化与城市增长模式——基于Zipf定律与Gibrat定律的分析[J].地理科学进展, 2022,41(3):361-370.[Sun Bindong, Wang Yanyan, Zhang Zhiqiang, et al. The form and evolution of city size distribution and urban growth model in China:An analysis based on Zipf's Law and Gibrat's Law[J]. Progress in Geography, 2022,41(3):361-370.]
|
| [4] |
Soo K T. Zipf's Law for cities:A cross-country investigation[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2005,35(3):239-263.
|
| [5] |
Soo K T. Zipf, Gibrat and geography:Evidence from China, India and Brazil[J]. Papers in Regional Science, 2014,93(1):159-181.
|
| [6] |
Cottineau C. MetaZipf. A dynamic meta-analysis of city size distributions[J]. Plos One, 2017,12(8):e0183919. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0183919.
|
| [7] |
Carroll G R. National city-size distributions:What do we know after 67 years of research? [J]. Progress in Human Geography, 1982,6(1):1-43.
|
| [8] |
Rosen K, Resnick M. The size distribution of cities:An examination of the Pareto law and primacy[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 1980,8(2):165-186.
|
| [9] |
Nitsch V. Zipf zipped[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2005,57(1):86-100.
|
| [10] |
Eeckhout J. Gibrat's law for (all) cities[J]. American Economic Review, 2004,94(5):1429-1451.
|
| [11] |
Malevergne Y, Pisarenko V, Sornette D. Testing the Pareto against the lognormal distributions with the uniformly most powerful unbiased test applied to the distribution of cities[J]. Physical Review E, 2011,83:036111. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.83.036111.
|
| [12] |
Jefferson M. The law of the primate city[J]. Geographical Review, 1939,29(2):226-232.
|
| [13] |
Mehta S. Some demographic and economic correlates of primate cities:A case for revaluation[J]. Demography, 1964(1):136-147.
|
| [14] |
Linsky A S. Some generalizations concerning primate cities[J]. Annals of The Association of American Geographers, 1965,55(3):506-510.
|
| [15] |
Ades A F, Glaeser E L. Trade and circuses:Explaining urban giants[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995,110(1):195-227.
|
| [16] |
Krugman P, Livas E R. Trade policy and the Third World metropolis[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 1996,49(1):137-150.
|
| [17] |
El-Shakhs S. Development, primacy, and systems of cities[J]. Journal of Developing Areas, 1972,7(1):11-36.
|
| [18] |
Berry B J L. City-size distributions and economic development[J]. Ekistics, 1962,13(76):90-97.
|
| [19] |
周一星.城市体系规模结构分析的两个误区[J].城市规划,1995(2):13-16.[Zhou Yixing. Two misunderstandings in the analysis of the scale structure of the urban system[J]. City Planning Review, 1995(2):13-16.]
|
| [20] |
张欣炜,宁越敏.中国大都市区的界定和发展研究——基于第六次人口普查数据的研究[J].地理科学,2015,35(6):665-673.[Zhang Xinwei, Ning Yuemin. The definition and development of metropolitan areas in China based on the data from the 6th national census[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2015,35(6):665-673.]
|
| [21] |
魏守华,孙宁,姜悦. Zipf法则与Gibrat法则在中国城市规模分布中的适用性[J].世界经济,2018,41(9):96-120.[Wei Shouhua, Sun Ning, Jiang Yue. The applicability of Zipf's Law and Gibrat's Law to city size distribution in China[J]. The Journal of World Economy, 2018,41(9):96-120.]
|
| [22] |
Li P, Lu M. Urban Systems:Understanding and predicting the spatial distribution of China's population[J]. China&World Economy, 2021,29(4):35-62.
|
| [23] |
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Divi-sion (2018). The World's Cities in 2018-Data Booklet (ST/ESA/SER.A/417)[Z/OL].(2019-04-11)[2023-12-29] . https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3799524.
|
| [24] |
Auerbach F. Das gesetz der belvolkerungskoncertration[J]. Petermanns Geographische Mitteilungen, 1913,59:74-76.
|
| [25] |
Parr J B, Suzuki K. Settlement populations and the lognormal distribution[J]. Urban Studies, 1973,10(3):335-352.
|
| [26] |
Levy M. Gibrat's law for (All) cities:Comment[J]. American Economic Review, 2009,99(4):1672-1675.
|
| [27] |
Ioannides Y, Skouras S. US city size distribution:Robustly Pareto, but only in the tail[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2013,73(1):18-29.
|
| [28] |
Calderín-Ojeda E. The distribution of all French communes:A composite parametric approach[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2016,450:385-394.
|
| [29] |
Reed W J. The Pareto, Zipf and other power laws[J]. Economics Letters, 2001,74(1):15-19.
|
| [30] |
Giesen K, Zimmermann A, Suedekum J. The size distribution across all cities-Double Pareto lognormal strikes[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2010,68(2):129-137.
|
| [31] |
Davis J C, Henderson V. Evidence on the political economy of the urbanization process[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2003,53(1):98-125.
|
| [32] |
Candau F, Gbandi T. Trade and institutions:Explaining urban giants[J]. Journal of Institutional Economics. 2019,15(6):1017-1035.
|
| [33] |
Karayalcin C, Yilmazkuday H. Trade and cities[J]. The World Bank Economic Review, 2015,29(3):523-549.
|
| [34] |
魏守华,方聪波.经济发展水平、政治中心分布与城市首位度[J].现代经济探讨,2021(9):1-11.[Wei Shouhua, Fang Congbo. Level of economic development, distribution of political centers and urban primacy[J]. Modern Economic Research, 2021(9):1-11.]
|
| [35] |
Button K J. Urban Economics Theory and Policy[M]. London:MacMillan, 1976:91-107.
|
| [36] |
Rozenfeld H D, Rybski D, Gabaix X, et al. The area and population of cities:New insights from a different perspective on cities[J]. American Economic Review, 2011,101(5):2205-2225.
|
| [37] |
Florczyk A J, Corbane C, Ehrlich D, et al. GHSL Data Package 2019[M]. Luxembourg:Publications Office of the European Union, 2019.
|
| [38] |
OECD, European Commission, FAO, et al. Applying the Degree of Urbanisation:A Methodological Manual to Define Cities, Towns and Rural Areas for International Comparisons[M]. Paris:Brussels, 2021.
|
| [39] |
Gonzalez-Navarro M, Turner M A. Subways and urban growth:Evidence from earth[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2018, 108:85-106.
|
|
|
|
2024, Vol. 39 
