|
|
|
| EVOLUTION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF THE DUAL SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERN OF POPULATION CONTRACTION AND AGING: A CASE STUDY OF HEILONGJIANG PROVINCE |
| ZHANG Yi-lin, WU Xiang-li, CHENG Li-jia |
| College of Geographical Science, Harbin Normal University, Harbin 150025, China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract The authors use Pearson correlation analysis, Dagum Gini coefficient, GTWR model and grey prediction model and other methods, based on the national population census data in 2000, 2010 and 2020, taking Heilongjiang province, which has a large population contraction and a high level of aging, reveal the spatio-temporal coupling relationship between the two, and analyze the factors influencing population aging, Predict population size and aging development trend. Research shows that:1) Over the past 20 years, the population size has undergone an evolutionary process from slow growth to mild contraction to severe and severe contraction. 2) The overall level of population aging shows a gradient upward trend from adult type I to elderly type I to elderly type III. 3) Both municipal and county-level units exhibit a highly positive correlation between population contraction and population aging growth. 4) The migration rate, elderly population base, per capita education years, mortality rate, and per capita GDP have a positive impact on the level of population aging. 5) In the next decade, the population size of the region will continue to decline, and the level of population aging will be accelerating.
|
|
Received: 10 March 2023
|
|
|
|
|
|
| [1] |
Audirac I.Shrinking cities:An unfit term for American urban policy?[J].Cities, 2018,75:12-19.
|
| [2] |
Alho J, Alders M, Cruijsen H, et al.New forecast:Population decline postponed in Europe[J].Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2006,23(1):1-10.
|
| [3] |
Martinez-Fernandez C, Audirac I, Fol S, et al.Shrinking cities:Urban challenges of globalization[J].International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 2012,36(2):213-225.
|
| [4] |
Keiro H, Kiyonobu K, Mihoko M.The development of urban shrinkage discourse and policy response in Japan[J].Cities, 2017,69:124-132.
|
| [5] |
闫广华,陈曦,张云.基于随机森林模型的东北地区收缩城市分布格局及影响因素研究[J].地理科学,2021,41(5):880-889.[Yan Guanghua, Chen Xi, Zhang Yun.Shrinking cities distribution pattern and influencing factors in northeast China based on random forest model[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2021,41(5):880-889.]
|
| [6] |
林雄斌,杨家文,张衔春,等.我国城市收缩测度与影响因素分析——基于人口与经济变化的视角[J].人文地理,2017,32(1):82-89.[Lin Xiongbin, Yang Jiawen, Zhang Xianchun, et al.Measuring shrinking cities and influention factors in urban China:Perspective of population and economy[J].Human Geography, 2017, 32(1):82-89.]
|
| [7] |
宫攀,张槊,王文哲.人口视角下中国城市收缩的演变特征与时空格局——基于第七次全国人口普查公报数据的分析[J].人口与经济,2022(3):1-15.[Gong Pan, Zhang Shuo, Wang Wenzhe.The evolutionary characteristics and spatial-temporal pattern of China's urban shrinkage from the perspective of population:Based on the analysis of the seventh national census bulletin data[J].Population & Economics, 2022(3):1-15.]
|
| [8] |
肖超伟,张旻薇,刘合林.美国乡村人口收缩的特征、影响因素与启示[J].经济地理,2022,42(11):163-172.[Xiao Chaowei, Zhang Minwei, Liu Helin.Rural population shrinking in the united states:Characteristics, influencing factors and implications[J].Economic Geography, 2022,42(11):163-172.]
|
| [9] |
高舒琦,龙瀛.东北地区收缩城市的识别分析及规划应对[J].规划师, 2017, 33(1):26-32.[Gao Shuqi, Long Ying.Distinguishing and planning shrinking cities in northeast China[J].Planners, 2017, 33(1):26-32.]
|
| [10] |
Rogerso P A.Geographic perspectives on elderly population growth[J].Growth and Change, 1996,27(1):75-79.
|
| [11] |
Reynaud C, Miccoli S, Lagona F.Population ageing in Italy:An empirical analysis of change in the ageing index across space and time[J].Spatial Demography, 2018,6(3):235-251.
|
| [12] |
Brown D L, Glasgow N, Kulcsar L J, et al.The multi-scalar organization of aging-related services in US rural places[J].Journal of Rural Studies, 2019,68:219-229.
|
| [13] |
Wang S.Spatial patterns and social-economic influential factors of population aging:A global assessment from 1990 to 2010[J/OL].Social Science & Medicine, 2020, 253:112963.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.112963.
|
| [14] |
刘华军,何礼伟,杨骞.中国人口老龄化的空间非均衡及分布动态演进:1989-2011[J].人口研究, 2014, 38(2):71-82.[Liu Huajun, He Liwei, Yang Qian.Spatial inequality and distributional dynamics of population ageing in China, 1989-2011[J].Population Research, 2014,38(2):71-82.]
|
| [15] |
王录仓,武荣伟,李巍.中国城市群人口老龄化时空格局[J].地理学报, 2017, 72(6):1001-1016.[Wang Lucang, Wu Rongwei, Li Wei.Spatial-temporal patterns of population aging on China's urban agglomerations[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017,72(6):1001-1016.]
|
| [16] |
周鹏,邓伟,张少尧.四川省人口老龄化的地域特征及影响因素[J].经济地理,2019,39(12):39-47.[Zhou Peng, Deng Wei, Zhang Shaoyao.Regional characteristics and influencing factors of population aging in Sichuan[J].Economic Geography, 2019,39(12):39-47.]
|
| [17] |
梅林,郭艳花,陈妍.吉林省人口老龄化时空分异特征及成因[J].地理科学进展, 2018, 37(3):352-362.[Mei Lin, GuoYanhua, Chen Yan.Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of population aging in Jilin province[J].Progress in Geography, 2018, 37(3):352-362.]
|
| [18] |
王志宝,孙铁山,李国平.近20年来中国人口老龄化的区域差异及其演化[J].人口研究,2013,37(1):66-77.[Wang Zhibao, Sun Tieshan, Li Guoping.Regional differences and evolutions of population aging in China[J].Population Research, 2013,37(1):66-77.]
|
| [19] |
张伟,蒲春蓉,黎芳,等.中国人口老龄化城乡倒置现象的时空演变特征及其驱动机制[J].热带地理,2021,41(5):928-942.[Zhang Wei, Pu Chunrong, Li Fang, et al.Spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and its driving mechanism of urban-rural inversion of population aging in China[J].Tropical Geography, 2021,41(5):928-942.]
|
| [20] |
春燕.新型城镇化背景下地区人口老龄化与人口缩减叠加的问题及应对:日本经验与启示[J].城市发展研究,2020,27(1):95-101.[Chun Yan.The enlightenment of china caused by the aging of japan's aging and the reduction of regional population[J].Urban Development Studies, 2020,27(1):95-101.]
|
| [21] |
张静,唐晓超.人口收缩视角下湖北省县域经济社会的空间变化探析[J].长江流域资源与环境, 2022, 31(5):1016-1028.[Zhang Jing, Tang Xiaochao.An analysis of the spatial changes of county economy and society in Hubei province from the perspective of population shrinkage[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2022,31(5):1016-1028.]
|
| [22] |
门可佩,曾卫.中国未来50年人口发展预测研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2004(3):12-17.[Men Kepei, Zeng Wei.A study on the prediction of population development in China in the next 50 years[J].Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics, 2004(3):12-17.]
|
| [23] |
李郇,杜志威,李先锋.珠江三角洲城镇收缩的空间分布与机制[J].现代城市研究,2015(9):36-43.[Li Xun, Du Zhiwei, Li Xianfeng.The spatial distribution and mechanism of city shrinkage in the Pearl River Delta[J].Modern Urban Research, 2015(9):36-43.]
|
| [24] |
杜鹏,李龙.新时代中国人口老龄化长期趋势预测[J].中国人民大学学报,2021,35(1):96-109.[Du Peng, Li Long.Long-term trends projection of China's population aging in the new era[J].Journal of Renmin University of China, 2021,35(1):96-109.]
|
| [25] |
赵东霞,韩增林,王利.中国老年人口分布的集疏格局及其形成机制[J].地理学报,2017,72(10):1762-1775.[Zhao Dongxia, Han Zenglin, Wang Li.The spatial pattern of aging population distribution and its generating mechanism in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017,72(10):1762-1775.]
|
| [26] |
郑伟,林山君,陈凯.中国人口老龄化的特征趋势及对经济增长的潜在影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014,31(8):3-20,38.[ZhengWei, Lin Shanjun, Chen Kai.Characteristics and trend of population aging in china and its potential impact on economic growth[J].Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics, 2014,31(8):3-20,38.]
|
| [27] |
陈淑君,王一江,刘春梅.不同生育政策下黑龙江省人口结构及发展趋势研究[J].哈尔滨商业大学学报(社会科学版),2017(3):28-37.[Chen Shujun, Wang Yijiang, Liu Chunmei.Population structure and development trend of heilongjiang province under different fertility policy[J].Journal of Harbin University of Commerce (Social Science Edition), 2017(3):28-37.]
|
| [28] |
张现苓,翟振武,陶涛.中国人口负增长:现状、未来与特征[J].人口研究,2020,44(3):3-20.[Zhang Xianling, Zhai Zhenwu, Tao Tao.Trends and patterns of negative population growth in China[J].Population Research, 2020,44(3):3-20.]
|
| [29] |
陈卫.中国人口负增长与老龄化趋势预测[J].社会科学辑刊,2022(5):133-144.[Chen Wei.Forecasting negative population growth and population ageing in China[J].Social Science Journal, 2022(5):133-144.]
|
|
|
|
2024, Vol. 39 
