Abstract：As a part of regional PRED,population problem is one of the important factors leading to the uncoordination of man-land relationship in Shandong Province.Based on the population system dynamics model designed by the author,this article simulates the future trends of population growth and puts forward the strategy of population growth carried over to the next century.
This article points out that the population amount will be increasing till 20's in the next century.However,being due to the family plan policy carried out more than twenty years,the population age structure has been changing greatly,the birth amount per year has been get ting smaller.By simulating,the article analyzes that the peak amount of population can be cont rolled below 100 million and will occur in 2020 year or so.After that time,the population growth could change to negative growth pattern.
王黎明, 张婕. 山东省跨世纪人口增长模式研究[J]. 人文地理, 1998, 13(4): 61-64.
Wang Liming, Zhang Jie. A STUDY ON THE POPULATION GROWTH PATTERNS CARRIED OVER TO THE NEXT CENTURY IN SHANDONG PROVINCE. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 1998, 13(4): 61-64.
