THE APPLICATION OF LOGISTIC GROWTH MODEL IN FORECAST OF TOURISTS AMOUNT——A Case Study of Suiyang, Guizhou Province
YAN Fen, MENG Ji-jun
Department of Resources and Environmental Geosciences, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Abstract：Whether the tourism economy effectively operates or not is decided by the equilibrium of the supply and demand of tourism. The forecast of tourist amount becomes more and more important and play a lead role in the exploitation of tourism market. There is a mature system about the method of tourist amount fore cast, which mainly aims at the scenic spot development and enough data about the tourists. As to the scenic spot that being exploited, the conventional method that forecast the tourist amount based on time serial data is infeasible, for the lack of data about tourist amount. The tourism in China develops more and more rapidly, with quick increase of the tourism demand. Facing such a potential mark et, more and more new tourism resources are exploited, then a quantity of scenic spots comes forth. For the sake of the rationality and effectivity of the exploitation, a touring plan which can guide the exploitation and be put into practice easily is needed. In the touring plan, the forecast of tourist amount is an important part. In order to figure out a method which can be applied into the tourist amount forecast of a new scenic spot without original data, we can get some enlightenment from the trend of tourist amount in scenic spot well developed. We can find out that the trend line can fit the population-growth logistic curve well. This paper attempt to forecast the tourist amount in a visible future, by means of combining the population-growth logistic curve with the environmental carrying capacity. In this method, we get the environmental carrying capacity by use of the distance method and figure out the parameter on the basis of the tourism development target and the constructed schedule of the infrastructure. Apply this method to case of the Shuanghe Karst National Geo-Park and get the forecast of tourist amount in the coming 15 years. This method has a referenced significance to the exploitation of the other similar domestic scenic spot. But there are also some deficiencies in this method, such as some subjectivity exists in the parameters estimation. How to estimate the parameters objectively is the problem to be figure out in the following study.
严汾, 蒙吉军. Logistic增长模型在游客流量预测中的应用——以贵州省绥阳县为例[J]. 人文地理, 2005, 20(4): 87-91.
YAN Fen, MENG Ji-jun. THE APPLICATION OF LOGISTIC GROWTH MODEL IN FORECAST OF TOURISTS AMOUNT——A Case Study of Suiyang, Guizhou Province. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2005, 20(4): 87-91.
