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人文地理  2009, Vol. 24 Issue (1): 93-97    DOI: 10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2009.01.017
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基于本底线和亲景度的秦岭国家植物园客流量预测
贾英1,2, 孙根年1
1. 陕西师范大学 旅游与环境学院, 西安 710062;
2. 大理学院 政法与经管学院, 大理 671003
FORECAST OF THE TOURIST-GENERATING MARKET OF QINLING NATIONAL BOTANICAL GARDEN BASED ON THE BACKGROUND OF TREND LINE & PREFERENCE SCALE
JIA Ying1,2, SUN Gen-nian1
1. College of Tourism & Environment Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xian 710062, China;
2. College of Politics and law & Economic Management, Dali University, Dali 671003, China

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摘要 客源市场分析与预测是景区规划的重要内容。对于拟建或新建景区,目前尚无公认的较为科学的预测方法。本文采用以本底趋势线和游客亲景度相结合的方法对拟建的秦岭国家植物园客流量进行预测。该方法以西安市为客源聚集地,建立国际入境旅游、国内旅游和本地居民游憩3条本底趋势线,再结合游客对目的地的旅游偏好和亲景度,按高低两个方案分别计算出未来5-25年秦岭国家植物园的游客分流量。本研究为拟建景区客流量预测提供了一种新方法。
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关键词 本底趋势线亲景度秦岭国家植物园客流量预测    
Abstract:At present, there is not a widely acceptable market analysis and forecast method for a new-built or a would-be-built tourism attraction. In this paper, a new method based on the theory of background trend line (BTL) and concept of preference scale is applied to conduct the analysis and forecast of tourist-generating market for Qinling National Botanical Garden (QNBG), a would-be tourism attraction. The relatively accurate forecast of potential tourist flow of Xian in coming 5-25 years is the precondition for the market forecast of QNBG. According to the theory of BTL, Xian's tourist flow change can be regarded as a combination of tendency change and periodical change. Using linear equation plus sine equation, the paper establishes 3 BTLs for Xian's international, domestic and local tourist markets. And potential tourist flow of the above markets can be calculated for the next 5-25 years. Also, the paper estimates and confirms the preferences scale of the certain tourism attraction for the three markets by the way of market survey, and the tourist flow of the three markets of QNBG can then be calculated. Total tourist flow should be the sum of the three markets. According to what have been forecasted, the expected tourist flow of QNBG would be 530 thousands to 650thousands in the year 2011, 750 thousands to 930 thousands in 2021 and 930 thousands to 1.15 million in 2029. The structure of tourist-generating market of the forecast is reasonable, with international tourists occupying 5.4-6.2%, domestic tourists occupying 57-60% and local tourists 34-38%. To testify the result of the forecast, the paper compares QNBG with similar type of tourism attractions in Shanxi province and other provinces and results reveal that the forecast is feasible and reasonable. The paper provides a new forecast method for a would-be tourism attraction and especially useful for predicting new tourist attractions which are located near central big cities.
Key wordsbackground trend line    preference scale    QNBG    tourist-generating market forecast   
收稿日期: 2007-07-15     
基金资助:

国家社会科学基金项目(03BJY0088);陕西秦岭国家植物园可行性分析联合资助项目

作者简介: 贾英(1972-),女,重庆人,大理学院讲师,陕西师范大学博士研究生,研究方向为生态旅游。E-mail:Jiaying0303@yahoo.com.cn。
引用本文:   
贾英, 孙根年. 基于本底线和亲景度的秦岭国家植物园客流量预测[J]. 人文地理, 2009, 24(1): 93-97. JIA Ying, SUN Gen-nian. FORECAST OF THE TOURIST-GENERATING MARKET OF QINLING NATIONAL BOTANICAL GARDEN BASED ON THE BACKGROUND OF TREND LINE & PREFERENCE SCALE. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2009, 24(1): 93-97.
链接本文:  
http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2009.01.017      或     http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/Y2009/V24/I1/93
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