GRAY CORRELATIVE ANALYSIS ON FACTORS AFFECTING TOURISM DEVELOPMENT
LIANG Yi-hua1, YANG Xin-jun1, MA Xiao-long2
1. Department of Urban and Resource Science, Northwest University, Xi'an 710069, China;
2. Center for Tourism Planning and Research, Zhongshan University, Guangzhou 510275, China
Abstract：The development of tourism is a complicated, changeable and intricate course throughout which there are many factors affecting and acting reciprocally. Each factor is independent and interactive. The analysis on the relationship among the factors is difficult to proceed using the usual methods such as Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. The method of gray correlative analysis can be used to solve this problem. Therefore, in order to seek scientific basis for tourism planning, evaluation, decision etc., the gray correlative dynamical analytic method is used, the factors affecting tourism development in China are distinguished and the leading factors are found. The results show that the affecting degree of those factors on tourism development are different clearly, which can be divided into three levels:the top level is composed of the factor that the whole sum of books, magazines and newspaper (the gray correlative degree is 1), which means that the changes and improvement of the this factor plays an important part in the development of tourism; the correlative degree of possessed amount of coaches and civil aircraft is the lowest one, which is not as important as people had thought; the gray correlative degrees of the remain seventeen factors are between the former two level, especially, the factors that the sum of tourism businesses, the area of urban gardens and greens, the sum of GDP per person, the sum of consumption expenditure per person and the sum of savings deposit per person, whose gray correlative degrees are the second highest correlative degrees (the gray correlative degrees are all 0.99) in all nineteen factors, are more important to the tourism development than the remnants and play unalterable roles in the process of the development of tourism. At last, four conclusions are achieved.
