中国出境旅游安全事故时空分布格局及形成机制

黄锐; 谢朝武

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2019.06.014

PDF(2597 KB)

人文地理 ›› 2019, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (6) : 120-128. DOI: 10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2019.06.014

旅游

中国出境旅游安全事故时空分布格局及形成机制

黄锐¹, 谢朝武^1,2

作者信息 +

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION PATTERNS AND FORMATION MECHANISM OF CHINESE OUTBOUND TOURISTS' SAFETY ACCIDENTS

HUANG Rui¹, XIE Chao-wu^1,2

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

以原国家旅游局“旅行社责任保险统保示范项目”中的11115条出境旅游出险案例为研究对象，运用数理统计和空间计量方法，对中国出境旅游安全事故时空分布格局及形成机制进行分析。研究表明：①出境旅游安全事故总体区域分布呈现出异质性和高度凝聚的分布态势。②各类型旅游安全事故具有集中性、差异性的频次分布特征和空间集聚特征。③各大洲旅游安全事故呈现出逐年扩张的发展态势，事故高发核心区聚集性不断增强，不同区域的旅游安全事故呈现出差异化的年际变化特征，各州事故季节波动也存在异质性，但均出现下降趋势。④旅游安全事故时空分布格局形成受客源地主体因素和目的地客体因素的共同影响，不同探测因子的影响力度呈现差异化特征。

Abstract

Based on 11115 outbound travel insurance cases in the former National Tourism Administration's "Model Project of Unified Liability Insurance for Travel Agencies", this paper uses Lorentz curve, Gini coefficient, Nearest Neighbor Index, Nuclear Density Estimation, Geographic Detector and other mathematical statistics and spatial measurement methods to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution pattern and formation mechanism of outbound travel safety accidents in China. The results show that: 1)The overall regional distribution of outbound tourism safety accidents in China shows a heterogeneous and highly agglomeration distribution trend. At the inter-continental level, it is mainly concentrated in Asia, and at the meso-geographic level, it is highly concentrated in Southeast Asia and East Asia. At the national and tourist destination level, it is mainly concentrated in Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, Thailand, Japan, Korea, Indonesia and the United States. 2)The time series of outbound tourism safety accidents in China is uneven. From the perspective of inter-annual change, the level of inter-annual change of tourism safety accidents in developed areas is relatively small, while the inter-annual change of accidents in emerging tourism markets and cold spots is relatively large. 3)The formation of outbound tourism safety accidents is mainly affected by four major factors. Among the main factors of tourist origin, tourism flow is the dominant factor affecting the temporal and spatial distribution of accidents. Among the factors of destination object, destination risk is the core factor affecting the spatio-temporal distribution of accidents.

导出引用

黄锐, 谢朝武. 中国出境旅游安全事故时空分布格局及形成机制[J]. 人文地理. 2019, 34(6): 120-128 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2019.06.014

HUANG Rui, XIE Chao-wu. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION PATTERNS AND FORMATION MECHANISM OF CHINESE OUTBOUND TOURISTS' SAFETY ACCIDENTS[J]. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY. 2019, 34(6): 120-128 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2019.06.014

中图分类号： F592

参考文献

[1] 中国旅游研究院《.中国出境旅游年度发展报告2018》[R].北京:旅游教育出版社,2018:6-7.[China Tourism Research Institute. China Outbound Tourism Annual Development Report 2018[R]. Beijing:Tourism Education Press, 2018:6-7.]
[2] UNWTO. Tourism Highlights (2018 Edition)[R]. Madrid:UNWTO, 2018:14-15.
[3] Page S J, Bentley T A, Meyer D, et al. Scoping the extent of tourist road safety:Motor vehicle transport accidents in New Zealand 1982-1996[J]. Current Issues in Tourism, 2001, 4(6):503-526.
[4] Bentley T, Meyer D, Page S, et al. Recreational tourism injuries among visitors to New Zealand:An exploratory analysis using hospital discharge data[J]. Tourism Management, 2001,22(4):373-381.
[5] Ball D J, Machin N. Foreign travel and the risk of harm[J]. International Journal of Injury Control&Safety Promotion, 2006,13(2):107.
[6] Lunetta P. Injury deaths among finnish residents travelling abroad[J]. International Journal of Injury Control&Safety Promotion, 2010,17(3):161.
[7] Mauritz W, Brazinova A, Majdan M, et al. Hospital admissions for traumatic brain injury of Austrian residents VS. of visitors to Austria[J]. Brain Injury, 2014,28(10):1295-1300.
[8] Stemberga V, Petaros A, Rasic V, et al. Dive-related fatalities among tourist and local divers in the northern croatian littoral (1980-2010)[J]. Journal of Travel Medicine, 2013,20(2):101-106.
[9] Saha S, Yap G. The moderation effects of political instability and terrorism on tourism development:A cross-country panel analysis[J]. Journal of Travel Research, 2014,53(4):509-521.
[10] 张进福,郑向敏.旅游安全表现形态与时空特征简析[J].桂林旅游高等专科学校学报,2001,12(1):36-38.[Zhang Jinfu, Zheng Xiangmin. An analysis on the occurring patterns and characteristics of tourism security[J]. Tourism Forum, 2001,12(1):36-38.]
[11] 谢朝武,张俊.时空因素与我国旅游突发事件的关联影响——基于最优尺度分析[J].经济管理,2014(3):126-134.[Xie Chaowu, Zhang Jun. The relevant impact of spatial-temporal factors on tourism emergencies in China:Based on optimal scale analysis[J]. Business Management Journal, 2014(3):126-134.]
[12] 谢朝武,张俊.我国旅游突发事件伤亡规模空间特征及其影响因素[J].旅游学刊,2015,30(1):83-91.[Xie Chaowu, Zhang Jun. Spatial characteristics and influencing factors of casualty scale in tourism emergencies in China[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2015,30(1):83-91.]
[13] 高伟雯,陈金华,李秋璞.东南亚海岛旅游安全管理研究[J].东南亚纵横,2014,2014(9):22-27.[Gao Weiwen, Chen Jinhua, Li Qiupu. Study on tourism safety management of Southeast Asian islands[J]. Crossroads:Southeast Asian Studies, 2014(9):22-27.]
[14] 李月调,谢朝武,王静.时空因素对我国赴泰旅游安全事件的影响[J].世界地理研究,2017,26(5):128-135.[Li Yuetiao, Xie Chaowu, Wangjing. The influence of space-time factors on the safety incidents of China's tourism to Thailand[J]. World Regional Studies, 2017,26(5):128-135.]
[15] 沈阳,谢朝武.内地游客赴港澳旅游安全事件时空分布研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(7):171-176.[ShenYang, Xie Chaowu. Spatial and temporal distribution of tourism safety events of mainland tourists to Hong Kong and Macao[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2015,25(7):171-176.]
[16] 谢朝武,张俊,陈岩英.中国出境旅游安全风险的区域分布研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2018,28(1):155-160.[Xie Chaowu, Zhang Jun, Chen Yanying. A study on regional distribution of security risks in China's outbound tourism[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018,28(1):155-160.]
[17] 郝飞,方旭红.2013-2014年中国出境旅游安全形势分析与展望[J].广西经济管理干部学院学报,2014,26(3):63-68.[Hao Fei, Fang Xuhong. Analysis and prospect of China's outbound tourism security situation from 2013 to 2014[J]. Journal of Guangxi Cadres College of Economic and Management, 2014,26(3):63-68.]
[18] 谢朝武,黄锐,陈岩英."一带一路"倡议下中国出境游客的安全保障——需求、困境与体系建构研究[J].旅游学刊,2019,34(3):41-56.[Xie Chaowu, Huang Rui, Chen Yanying. Safety guarantees for outbound Chinese tourists under "the Belt and Road" initiative:Demands, dilem, and system construction[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2019, 34(3):41-56.]
[19] 谢志华,吴必虎.中国资源型景区旅游空间结构研究[J].地理科学, 2008,28(6):748-753.[Xie Zhihua, Wu Bihu. A study on the spatial structure of tourism in resource-based scenic spots of China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2008,28(6):748-753.]
[20] 朱鹤,刘家明,陶慧,等.北京城市休闲商务区的时空分布特征与成因[J].地理学报,2015,70(8):1215-1228.[Zhu He, Liu Jiaming, Tao Hui, et al. Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and causes of Beijing urban leisure business district[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015,70(8):1215-1228.]
[21] 潘竟虎,李俊峰.中国A级旅游景点空间结构的计量地理分析[J].经济地理,2013,33(9):154-160.[Pan Jinghu, Li Junfeng. Econometric geographic analysis of spatial structure of class a tourist attractions in China[J]. Economic Geography, 2013,33(9):154-160.]
[22] 陈芸,田良.海南入境旅游季节性特征与调控措施[J].人文地理, 2013,28(4):140-143.[Chen Yun, Tian Liang. Seasonal characteristics and control measures of inbound tourism in Hainan[J]. Human Geography, 2013,28(4):140-143.]
[23] 杨瑾,马耀峰.西安国际客源市场时空动态变化分析研究[J].西北大学学报:自然科学版,2006,36(2):309-312.[Yang Jing, Ma Yaofeng. Analysis and research on spatio-temporal dynamic change of Xi'an international tourist market[J]. Journal of Northwest University:Natural Science Edition, 2006,36(2):309-312.]
[24] 王远飞,何洪林.空间数据分析方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2007:57-89.[Wang Yuanfei, He Hongling. Spatial Data Analysis Method[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2007:57-89.]
[25] 王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.[Wang Jinfeng, Xu Chengdong. Geodetector:Principle and prospective[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017,72(1):116-134.]
[26] 蒋依依,温晓金,刘焱序,等.2001-2015年中国出境旅游流位序规模演化特征[J].地理学报,2018,73(12):2468-2480.[Jiang Yiyi, Wen Xiaojin, Liu Yanxu, et al. Evolutionary characteristics of China's outbound tourism flow in rank-size distribution from 2001 to 2015[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018,73(12):2468-2480.]
[27] 刘颖,谢萌,丁勇.对基尼系数计算方法的比较与思考[J].统计与决策,2004(9):15-16.[Liu Ying, Xie Meng, Ding Yong. Comparisons and reflections on Gini coefficient calculating methods[J]. Statistics&Decision, 2004(9):15-16.]
[28] 陈秋玲,肖璐,张青,等.地区安全生产的经济社会风险因子分析——基于我国面板数据的实证分析[J].华东经济管理,2011,25(3):51-56.[Chen Qiuling, Xiao Lu, Zhang Qing, et al. Economic and social risk factor analysis of regional safety production:An empirical analysis based on China's panel data[J]. East China Economic Management, 2011,25(3):51-56.]