TIME-SPACE PATTERNS OF RISK CLUSTER OF POPULATION AGING IN CHINAAT MULTI-SCALES: THE APPLICATION OF FLEXIBLE SPATIAL SCAN STATISTICS
JI Xiao-mei1, ZENG Qun-zhou1, WANG Chao2
1. College of Tourism, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China;
2. College of Business, Guizhou University of Finance and Economicas, Guizhou 550025, China
Abstract Population aging is one of the most heated topics among domestic and foreign societies which has been attached numerous attention by scholars from variant research fields. On the one hand, under the context where the social and spatial reconfiguration take places, population aging in China tends to be increasingly complicated, the new normalcy characterized as getting old before being rich is throwing a great threaten to the sustainable development. On the other hand, due to the fact that regions vary in development stage and geographical condition, population aging in China displays its strikingly spatial and temporal imbalance. Using Flexible Spatial Scan Statistic, this paper scrutinized spatiotemporal disparity in aging risk clusters at provincial, prefectural and county scales. The authors found that, aging has become the main melody of Chinese population transformation, and low birth rate has been the new normal at nation-wide. The regional imbalance comes to be increasingly worsened and there exist diverse regional models. All three scales share such common features as followings:aging risk clusters are spatially concentrated on the southeast part of China, the risk degree and distributional area become larger, but the gap among clusters comes to be narrowed. Generally, the smaller spatial scale Flexible Spatial Scan Statistic adopts, the more scattered, precise and higher-risk clusters will be identified, and gaps between them become enlarged.
高晓路,吴丹贤,许泽宁,等.中国老龄化地理学综述和研究框架构建[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(12):1480-1494.[Gao Xiaolu, Wu Danxian, Xu zening, et al. A review and frame-work setting of geographical research on aging in China[J]. Progress in Geography, 2015,34(12):1480-1494.]
[2]
林琳,马飞.广州市人口老龄化的空间分布及趋势[J].地理研究, 2007,26(5):1043-1054.[Lin Lin, Ma Fei. Spatial distribution and trends of the aging of population in Guangzhou[J]. Geographical Research, 2007,26(5):1043-1054.]
[7]
尹豪.日本人口老龄化与老龄化对策[J].人口学刊,1999,19(6):17-21.[Yi Hao.The aging of Japan population and its counter measure[J]. Population Journal, 1999,19(6):17-21.]
[1]
高晓路,吴丹贤,许泽宁,等.中国老龄化地理学综述和研究框架构建[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(12):1480-1494.[Gao Xiaolu, Wu Danxian, Xu zening, et al. A review and frame-work setting of geographical research on aging in China[J]. Progress in Geography, 2015,34(12):1480-1494.]
[2]
林琳,马飞.广州市人口老龄化的空间分布及趋势[J].地理研究, 2007,26(5):1043-1054.[Lin Lin, Ma Fei. Spatial distribution and trends of the aging of population in Guangzhou[J]. Geographical Research, 2007,26(5):1043-1054.]
[3]
Flynn C B. General versus aged interstate immigration, 1970-1986[J]. Research on Aging, 1980(2):141-1541.
[8]
王志宝,孙铁山,张杰斐.人口老龄化区域类型划分与区域演变分析——以中美日韩四国为例[J].地理学报,2015,35(7):822-830.[Wang Zhibao, Sun Tieshan, Zhang Jiefei. Regional types' division of population aging and analysis on population aging regional evolution:Based on China, America, Japan and Korea[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinic, 2015,35(7):822-830.]
[2]
林琳,马飞.广州市人口老龄化的空间分布及趋势[J].地理研究, 2007,26(5):1043-1054.[Lin Lin, Ma Fei. Spatial distribution and trends of the aging of population in Guangzhou[J]. Geographical Research, 2007,26(5):1043-1054.]
[3]
Flynn C B. General versus aged interstate immigration, 1970-1986[J]. Research on Aging, 1980(2):141-1541.
[4]
Golant S M. A Place to Grow Old:The Meaning of Environment on Old Age[M]. New York:Columbia University Press, 1984:421.
[9]
李日邦,王五一,谭见安,等.我国人口老龄化发展的阶段、趋势和区域差异[J].地理研究,1999,18(2):113-121.[Li Ribang, Wang Wuyi, Tan Jianan, et al. The development stages and trend of population aging and its regional differences in China[J]. Geographical Research, 1999,18(2):113-121.]
[3]
Flynn C B. General versus aged interstate immigration, 1970-1986[J]. Research on Aging, 1980(2):141-1541.
[4]
Golant S M. A Place to Grow Old:The Meaning of Environment on Old Age[M]. New York:Columbia University Press, 1984:421.
[5]
Hiltner J, Smith B W. Intraurban residential location of the elderly[J]. Journal of Geography, 1974,73(4):23-33.
[10]
刘华军,何礼伟,杨骞.中国人口老龄化的空间非均衡及分布动态演进:1989-2011[J].人口研究,2014,38(2):71-82.[Liu Huajun, He Liwei, Yang Qian. Spatial inequality and distributional dynamics of population aging in China, 1989-2011[J]. Population Research, 2014,38(2):71-82.]
[5]
Hiltner J, Smith B W. Intraurban residential location of the elderly[J]. Journal of Geography, 1974,73(4):23-33.
[4]
Golant S M. A Place to Grow Old:The Meaning of Environment on Old Age[M]. New York:Columbia University Press, 1984:421.
[6]
杨宗惠.台湾地区人口老化空间变迁与特点分析[R].台北:师大地理研究报告,1995:1-26.[Yang Zonghui. The Analysis on the Spatial Dynamic and Characteristic of Population Aging in Taiwan[R]. Taibei:The reports on Taiwan Normal University, 1995:1-26.]
[11]
陈明华,郝国彩.中国人口老龄化地区差异分解及影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(4):136-141.[Chen Minghua, Hao Guocai. Research on regional difference decomposition and influence factors of population aging in China[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014,24(4):136-141.]
[5]
Hiltner J, Smith B W. Intraurban residential location of the elderly[J]. Journal of Geography, 1974,73(4):23-33.
[6]
杨宗惠.台湾地区人口老化空间变迁与特点分析[R].台北:师大地理研究报告,1995:1-26.[Yang Zonghui. The Analysis on the Spatial Dynamic and Characteristic of Population Aging in Taiwan[R]. Taibei:The reports on Taiwan Normal University, 1995:1-26.]
[7]
尹豪.日本人口老龄化与老龄化对策[J].人口学刊,1999,19(6):17-21.[Yi Hao.The aging of Japan population and its counter measure[J]. Population Journal, 1999,19(6):17-21.]
[12]
王录仓,武荣伟,刘海猛,等.县域尺度下中国人口老龄化的空间格局与区域差异[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(8):921-931.[Wang Lucang, Wu Rongwei, Liu Haimeng, et al. Spatial patterns and regional differences of population aging in China based on the county scale[J]. Progress in Geography, 2016,35(8):921-931.]
[6]
杨宗惠.台湾地区人口老化空间变迁与特点分析[R].台北:师大地理研究报告,1995:1-26.[Yang Zonghui. The Analysis on the Spatial Dynamic and Characteristic of Population Aging in Taiwan[R]. Taibei:The reports on Taiwan Normal University, 1995:1-26.]
[7]
尹豪.日本人口老龄化与老龄化对策[J].人口学刊,1999,19(6):17-21.[Yi Hao.The aging of Japan population and its counter measure[J]. Population Journal, 1999,19(6):17-21.]
[8]
王志宝,孙铁山,张杰斐.人口老龄化区域类型划分与区域演变分析——以中美日韩四国为例[J].地理学报,2015,35(7):822-830.[Wang Zhibao, Sun Tieshan, Zhang Jiefei. Regional types' division of population aging and analysis on population aging regional evolution:Based on China, America, Japan and Korea[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinic, 2015,35(7):822-830.]
[13]
袁俊,吴殿廷,吴铮争.中国农村人口老龄化的空间差异及其影响因素分析[J].中国人口科学,2007(3):41-48.[Yuan Jun, Wu Dianting, Wu Zhengzheng. Analysis on regional disparity and contributing factors of rural population aging in China[J]. Chinese Population Science, 2007(3):41-48.]
[7]
尹豪.日本人口老龄化与老龄化对策[J].人口学刊,1999,19(6):17-21.[Yi Hao.The aging of Japan population and its counter measure[J]. Population Journal, 1999,19(6):17-21.]
[8]
王志宝,孙铁山,张杰斐.人口老龄化区域类型划分与区域演变分析——以中美日韩四国为例[J].地理学报,2015,35(7):822-830.[Wang Zhibao, Sun Tieshan, Zhang Jiefei. Regional types' division of population aging and analysis on population aging regional evolution:Based on China, America, Japan and Korea[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinic, 2015,35(7):822-830.]
[9]
李日邦,王五一,谭见安,等.我国人口老龄化发展的阶段、趋势和区域差异[J].地理研究,1999,18(2):113-121.[Li Ribang, Wang Wuyi, Tan Jianan, et al. The development stages and trend of population aging and its regional differences in China[J]. Geographical Research, 1999,18(2):113-121.]
[14]
马晓理,张旺锋,薛海燕,等.甘肃省人口老龄化空间分布及演变特征分析[J]. 西北人口,2014,35(6):115-121.[Ma Xiaoli, Zhang Wangfeng, Xue Haiyan, et al. Analysis of spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of the aging of population in Gansu[J]. Northwest Population, 2014,35(6):115-121.]
[8]
王志宝,孙铁山,张杰斐.人口老龄化区域类型划分与区域演变分析——以中美日韩四国为例[J].地理学报,2015,35(7):822-830.[Wang Zhibao, Sun Tieshan, Zhang Jiefei. Regional types' division of population aging and analysis on population aging regional evolution:Based on China, America, Japan and Korea[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinic, 2015,35(7):822-830.]
[9]
李日邦,王五一,谭见安,等.我国人口老龄化发展的阶段、趋势和区域差异[J].地理研究,1999,18(2):113-121.[Li Ribang, Wang Wuyi, Tan Jianan, et al. The development stages and trend of population aging and its regional differences in China[J]. Geographical Research, 1999,18(2):113-121.]
[10]
刘华军,何礼伟,杨骞.中国人口老龄化的空间非均衡及分布动态演进:1989-2011[J].人口研究,2014,38(2):71-82.[Liu Huajun, He Liwei, Yang Qian. Spatial inequality and distributional dynamics of population aging in China, 1989-2011[J]. Population Research, 2014,38(2):71-82.]
[15]
贾金玲.河南省老龄人口的空间分布及变动[J].地域研究与开发,2015,34(2):161-166.[Jia Jinling, Spatial distribution pattern and change of elderly population in Henan Province[J]. Areal Research and Development, 2015,34(2):161-166.]
[9]
李日邦,王五一,谭见安,等.我国人口老龄化发展的阶段、趋势和区域差异[J].地理研究,1999,18(2):113-121.[Li Ribang, Wang Wuyi, Tan Jianan, et al. The development stages and trend of population aging and its regional differences in China[J]. Geographical Research, 1999,18(2):113-121.]
[10]
刘华军,何礼伟,杨骞.中国人口老龄化的空间非均衡及分布动态演进:1989-2011[J].人口研究,2014,38(2):71-82.[Liu Huajun, He Liwei, Yang Qian. Spatial inequality and distributional dynamics of population aging in China, 1989-2011[J]. Population Research, 2014,38(2):71-82.]
[11]
陈明华,郝国彩.中国人口老龄化地区差异分解及影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(4):136-141.[Chen Minghua, Hao Guocai. Research on regional difference decomposition and influence factors of population aging in China[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014,24(4):136-141.]
[16]
李扬,刘慧,金凤君,等.北京市人口老龄化的时空变化特征[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(11):131-138.[Li yang, Liu Hui, Jin Fengjun, et al. Spatiotemporal transition of aging population based on ESDA-GIS in Beijing city[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2011,21(11):131-138.]
[10]
刘华军,何礼伟,杨骞.中国人口老龄化的空间非均衡及分布动态演进:1989-2011[J].人口研究,2014,38(2):71-82.[Liu Huajun, He Liwei, Yang Qian. Spatial inequality and distributional dynamics of population aging in China, 1989-2011[J]. Population Research, 2014,38(2):71-82.]
[11]
陈明华,郝国彩.中国人口老龄化地区差异分解及影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(4):136-141.[Chen Minghua, Hao Guocai. Research on regional difference decomposition and influence factors of population aging in China[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014,24(4):136-141.]
[12]
王录仓,武荣伟,刘海猛,等.县域尺度下中国人口老龄化的空间格局与区域差异[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(8):921-931.[Wang Lucang, Wu Rongwei, Liu Haimeng, et al. Spatial patterns and regional differences of population aging in China based on the county scale[J]. Progress in Geography, 2016,35(8):921-931.]
[17]
孙蕾.台湾人口老龄化的区域差异研究——基于各县市面板数据的实证分析[J].台湾研究集刊,2012,30(4):60-68.[Sun Lei. A study on regional differences in population aging in Taiwan:Based on the empirical analysis of county level panel data[J]. Taiwan Research Journal, 2012,30(4):60-68.]
[11]
陈明华,郝国彩.中国人口老龄化地区差异分解及影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(4):136-141.[Chen Minghua, Hao Guocai. Research on regional difference decomposition and influence factors of population aging in China[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014,24(4):136-141.]
[12]
王录仓,武荣伟,刘海猛,等.县域尺度下中国人口老龄化的空间格局与区域差异[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(8):921-931.[Wang Lucang, Wu Rongwei, Liu Haimeng, et al. Spatial patterns and regional differences of population aging in China based on the county scale[J]. Progress in Geography, 2016,35(8):921-931.]
[13]
袁俊,吴殿廷,吴铮争.中国农村人口老龄化的空间差异及其影响因素分析[J].中国人口科学,2007(3):41-48.[Yuan Jun, Wu Dianting, Wu Zhengzheng. Analysis on regional disparity and contributing factors of rural population aging in China[J]. Chinese Population Science, 2007(3):41-48.]
[18]
于清涛,李华香,李玉江.山东人口老龄化现状及时空分异研究[J]. 山东师范大学学报(自然科学版),2008,23(4):66-68.[Yu Qingqing, Li Huaxiang, Li Yujiang. Study on present situation characteristics and temporal and spatial disparity in Shandong population aging[J]. Journal of Shandong Normal University, 2008,23(4):66-68.]
[12]
王录仓,武荣伟,刘海猛,等.县域尺度下中国人口老龄化的空间格局与区域差异[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(8):921-931.[Wang Lucang, Wu Rongwei, Liu Haimeng, et al. Spatial patterns and regional differences of population aging in China based on the county scale[J]. Progress in Geography, 2016,35(8):921-931.]
[13]
袁俊,吴殿廷,吴铮争.中国农村人口老龄化的空间差异及其影响因素分析[J].中国人口科学,2007(3):41-48.[Yuan Jun, Wu Dianting, Wu Zhengzheng. Analysis on regional disparity and contributing factors of rural population aging in China[J]. Chinese Population Science, 2007(3):41-48.]
[14]
马晓理,张旺锋,薛海燕,等.甘肃省人口老龄化空间分布及演变特征分析[J]. 西北人口,2014,35(6):115-121.[Ma Xiaoli, Zhang Wangfeng, Xue Haiyan, et al. Analysis of spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of the aging of population in Gansu[J]. Northwest Population, 2014,35(6):115-121.]
[19]
易卫华,叶信岳,王哲野.广东省人口老龄化的时空演化及成因分析[J].人口与经济,2015,36(3):33-42.[Yi Weihua, Ye Xinyue, Wang Zheye. The spatial aging pattern and its driving forces in Guangdong[J]. Population & Economics, 2015,36(3):33-42.]
[13]
袁俊,吴殿廷,吴铮争.中国农村人口老龄化的空间差异及其影响因素分析[J].中国人口科学,2007(3):41-48.[Yuan Jun, Wu Dianting, Wu Zhengzheng. Analysis on regional disparity and contributing factors of rural population aging in China[J]. Chinese Population Science, 2007(3):41-48.]
[14]
马晓理,张旺锋,薛海燕,等.甘肃省人口老龄化空间分布及演变特征分析[J]. 西北人口,2014,35(6):115-121.[Ma Xiaoli, Zhang Wangfeng, Xue Haiyan, et al. Analysis of spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of the aging of population in Gansu[J]. Northwest Population, 2014,35(6):115-121.]
[15]
贾金玲.河南省老龄人口的空间分布及变动[J].地域研究与开发,2015,34(2):161-166.[Jia Jinling, Spatial distribution pattern and change of elderly population in Henan Province[J]. Areal Research and Development, 2015,34(2):161-166.]
[20]
许慧君.台湾人口老化之空间分析[D].台北:台湾大学,2008:35-40.[Hsu Huijun. Spatial Analysis of Aging Population in Taiwan[D]. Taibei:Taiwan University, 2008:35-40.]
[14]
马晓理,张旺锋,薛海燕,等.甘肃省人口老龄化空间分布及演变特征分析[J]. 西北人口,2014,35(6):115-121.[Ma Xiaoli, Zhang Wangfeng, Xue Haiyan, et al. Analysis of spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of the aging of population in Gansu[J]. Northwest Population, 2014,35(6):115-121.]
[15]
贾金玲.河南省老龄人口的空间分布及变动[J].地域研究与开发,2015,34(2):161-166.[Jia Jinling, Spatial distribution pattern and change of elderly population in Henan Province[J]. Areal Research and Development, 2015,34(2):161-166.]
[16]
李扬,刘慧,金凤君,等.北京市人口老龄化的时空变化特征[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(11):131-138.[Li yang, Liu Hui, Jin Fengjun, et al. Spatiotemporal transition of aging population based on ESDA-GIS in Beijing city[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2011,21(11):131-138.]
[21]
Ká?erová M, Onda?ková J, Mladek J. A comparison of population aging in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic based on generation support and exchange[J]. Moravian Geographical Reports, 2012,20(4):26-38.
[15]
贾金玲.河南省老龄人口的空间分布及变动[J].地域研究与开发,2015,34(2):161-166.[Jia Jinling, Spatial distribution pattern and change of elderly population in Henan Province[J]. Areal Research and Development, 2015,34(2):161-166.]
[16]
李扬,刘慧,金凤君,等.北京市人口老龄化的时空变化特征[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(11):131-138.[Li yang, Liu Hui, Jin Fengjun, et al. Spatiotemporal transition of aging population based on ESDA-GIS in Beijing city[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2011,21(11):131-138.]
[17]
孙蕾.台湾人口老龄化的区域差异研究——基于各县市面板数据的实证分析[J].台湾研究集刊,2012,30(4):60-68.[Sun Lei. A study on regional differences in population aging in Taiwan:Based on the empirical analysis of county level panel data[J]. Taiwan Research Journal, 2012,30(4):60-68.]
[22]
周婕.城市老龄人口空间分布特征及演变趋势[J].城市规划,2014, 38(3):18-25.[Zhou Jie. Spatial distribution characteristics and evolution trends of urban elderly population[J]. Urban Planning, 2014, 38(3):18-25.]
[16]
李扬,刘慧,金凤君,等.北京市人口老龄化的时空变化特征[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(11):131-138.[Li yang, Liu Hui, Jin Fengjun, et al. Spatiotemporal transition of aging population based on ESDA-GIS in Beijing city[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2011,21(11):131-138.]
[17]
孙蕾.台湾人口老龄化的区域差异研究——基于各县市面板数据的实证分析[J].台湾研究集刊,2012,30(4):60-68.[Sun Lei. A study on regional differences in population aging in Taiwan:Based on the empirical analysis of county level panel data[J]. Taiwan Research Journal, 2012,30(4):60-68.]
[18]
于清涛,李华香,李玉江.山东人口老龄化现状及时空分异研究[J]. 山东师范大学学报(自然科学版),2008,23(4):66-68.[Yu Qingqing, Li Huaxiang, Li Yujiang. Study on present situation characteristics and temporal and spatial disparity in Shandong population aging[J]. Journal of Shandong Normal University, 2008,23(4):66-68.]
[23]
Preston S H, Stokes A. Sources of population aging in more and less developed countries[J]. Population and Development Review, 2012,38(2):221-236.
[17]
孙蕾.台湾人口老龄化的区域差异研究——基于各县市面板数据的实证分析[J].台湾研究集刊,2012,30(4):60-68.[Sun Lei. A study on regional differences in population aging in Taiwan:Based on the empirical analysis of county level panel data[J]. Taiwan Research Journal, 2012,30(4):60-68.]
[18]
于清涛,李华香,李玉江.山东人口老龄化现状及时空分异研究[J]. 山东师范大学学报(自然科学版),2008,23(4):66-68.[Yu Qingqing, Li Huaxiang, Li Yujiang. Study on present situation characteristics and temporal and spatial disparity in Shandong population aging[J]. Journal of Shandong Normal University, 2008,23(4):66-68.]
[19]
易卫华,叶信岳,王哲野.广东省人口老龄化的时空演化及成因分析[J].人口与经济,2015,36(3):33-42.[Yi Weihua, Ye Xinyue, Wang Zheye. The spatial aging pattern and its driving forces in Guangdong[J]. Population & Economics, 2015,36(3):33-42.]
[24]
施锦芳.对日本少子化问题的新思考[J].日本问题研究,2010,24(3):41-45.[Shi Jinfang. New idea about the low birth rate in Japan[J]. Japanese Research, 2010,24(3):41-45.]
[18]
于清涛,李华香,李玉江.山东人口老龄化现状及时空分异研究[J]. 山东师范大学学报(自然科学版),2008,23(4):66-68.[Yu Qingqing, Li Huaxiang, Li Yujiang. Study on present situation characteristics and temporal and spatial disparity in Shandong population aging[J]. Journal of Shandong Normal University, 2008,23(4):66-68.]
[19]
易卫华,叶信岳,王哲野.广东省人口老龄化的时空演化及成因分析[J].人口与经济,2015,36(3):33-42.[Yi Weihua, Ye Xinyue, Wang Zheye. The spatial aging pattern and its driving forces in Guangdong[J]. Population & Economics, 2015,36(3):33-42.]
[20]
许慧君.台湾人口老化之空间分析[D].台北:台湾大学,2008:35-40.[Hsu Huijun. Spatial Analysis of Aging Population in Taiwan[D]. Taibei:Taiwan University, 2008:35-40.]
[25]
赵儒煜,刘畅,张锋.中国人口老龄化区域溢出与分布差异的空间计量经济学研究[J].人口研究,2012,36(2):71-81.[Zhao Ruyu, Liu Chang, Zhangfeng. Spatial econometric Research on regional spillover and distribution difference of population aging in China[J]. Population Research, 2012,36(2):71-81.]
[19]
易卫华,叶信岳,王哲野.广东省人口老龄化的时空演化及成因分析[J].人口与经济,2015,36(3):33-42.[Yi Weihua, Ye Xinyue, Wang Zheye. The spatial aging pattern and its driving forces in Guangdong[J]. Population & Economics, 2015,36(3):33-42.]
[20]
许慧君.台湾人口老化之空间分析[D].台北:台湾大学,2008:35-40.[Hsu Huijun. Spatial Analysis of Aging Population in Taiwan[D]. Taibei:Taiwan University, 2008:35-40.]
[21]
Ká?erová M, Onda?ková J, Mladek J. A comparison of population aging in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic based on generation support and exchange[J]. Moravian Geographical Reports, 2012,20(4):26-38.
[26]
王泽宇,孙然,韩增林,等.中国人口老龄化水平测度与空间关联研究[J].地域研究与开发,2013,32(3):138-143.[Wang Zeyu, Sun Ran, Han Zenglin, et al. Research on the measure of Chinese population aging and spatial correlation[J]. Areal Research and Development, 2013,32(3):138-143.]
[20]
许慧君.台湾人口老化之空间分析[D].台北:台湾大学,2008:35-40.[Hsu Huijun. Spatial Analysis of Aging Population in Taiwan[D]. Taibei:Taiwan University, 2008:35-40.]
[21]
Ká?erová M, Onda?ková J, Mladek J. A comparison of population aging in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic based on generation support and exchange[J]. Moravian Geographical Reports, 2012,20(4):26-38.
[22]
周婕.城市老龄人口空间分布特征及演变趋势[J].城市规划,2014, 38(3):18-25.[Zhou Jie. Spatial distribution characteristics and evolution trends of urban elderly population[J]. Urban Planning, 2014, 38(3):18-25.]
[27]
陈江平,张瑶,余远剑.空间自相关的可塑性面积单元问题效应[J]. 地理学报,2011,66(12):1597-1606.[Chen Jiangping, Zhang Yao, Yu Yuanjian. Effect of MAUP in spatial autocorrelation[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011,66(12):1597-1606.]
[21]
Ká?erová M, Onda?ková J, Mladek J. A comparison of population aging in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic based on generation support and exchange[J]. Moravian Geographical Reports, 2012,20(4):26-38.
[22]
周婕.城市老龄人口空间分布特征及演变趋势[J].城市规划,2014, 38(3):18-25.[Zhou Jie. Spatial distribution characteristics and evolution trends of urban elderly population[J]. Urban Planning, 2014, 38(3):18-25.]
[23]
Preston S H, Stokes A. Sources of population aging in more and less developed countries[J]. Population and Development Review, 2012,38(2):221-236.
[28]
Besag J, Newell J. The detection of clusters in rare diseases[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society, 1991,154(1):143-155.
[22]
周婕.城市老龄人口空间分布特征及演变趋势[J].城市规划,2014, 38(3):18-25.[Zhou Jie. Spatial distribution characteristics and evolution trends of urban elderly population[J]. Urban Planning, 2014, 38(3):18-25.]
[23]
Preston S H, Stokes A. Sources of population aging in more and less developed countries[J]. Population and Development Review, 2012,38(2):221-236.
[24]
施锦芳.对日本少子化问题的新思考[J].日本问题研究,2010,24(3):41-45.[Shi Jinfang. New idea about the low birth rate in Japan[J]. Japanese Research, 2010,24(3):41-45.]
[29]
Kulldorff M, Nagarwalla N. Spatial disease clusters:Detection and inference[J]. Statistics in Medicine, 1995,14(8):799-810.
[23]
Preston S H, Stokes A. Sources of population aging in more and less developed countries[J]. Population and Development Review, 2012,38(2):221-236.
[24]
施锦芳.对日本少子化问题的新思考[J].日本问题研究,2010,24(3):41-45.[Shi Jinfang. New idea about the low birth rate in Japan[J]. Japanese Research, 2010,24(3):41-45.]
[25]
赵儒煜,刘畅,张锋.中国人口老龄化区域溢出与分布差异的空间计量经济学研究[J].人口研究,2012,36(2):71-81.[Zhao Ruyu, Liu Chang, Zhangfeng. Spatial econometric Research on regional spillover and distribution difference of population aging in China[J]. Population Research, 2012,36(2):71-81.]
[30]
Naus J. The distribution of the size of maximum cluster of points on the line[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1965, 60(310):532-538.
[24]
施锦芳.对日本少子化问题的新思考[J].日本问题研究,2010,24(3):41-45.[Shi Jinfang. New idea about the low birth rate in Japan[J]. Japanese Research, 2010,24(3):41-45.]
[25]
赵儒煜,刘畅,张锋.中国人口老龄化区域溢出与分布差异的空间计量经济学研究[J].人口研究,2012,36(2):71-81.[Zhao Ruyu, Liu Chang, Zhangfeng. Spatial econometric Research on regional spillover and distribution difference of population aging in China[J]. Population Research, 2012,36(2):71-81.]
[26]
王泽宇,孙然,韩增林,等.中国人口老龄化水平测度与空间关联研究[J].地域研究与开发,2013,32(3):138-143.[Wang Zeyu, Sun Ran, Han Zenglin, et al. Research on the measure of Chinese population aging and spatial correlation[J]. Areal Research and Development, 2013,32(3):138-143.]
[31]
殷菲.时-空扫描统计量在传染病早期预警中的应用研究[D].成都:四川大学,2007:120-125.[Yin Fei. A Study on the Applicability of Space-time Scan Statistic in Early Warning of Infectious Disease[D].Chengdu:Sichuan University, 2007:120-125.]
[25]
赵儒煜,刘畅,张锋.中国人口老龄化区域溢出与分布差异的空间计量经济学研究[J].人口研究,2012,36(2):71-81.[Zhao Ruyu, Liu Chang, Zhangfeng. Spatial econometric Research on regional spillover and distribution difference of population aging in China[J]. Population Research, 2012,36(2):71-81.]
[26]
王泽宇,孙然,韩增林,等.中国人口老龄化水平测度与空间关联研究[J].地域研究与开发,2013,32(3):138-143.[Wang Zeyu, Sun Ran, Han Zenglin, et al. Research on the measure of Chinese population aging and spatial correlation[J]. Areal Research and Development, 2013,32(3):138-143.]
[32]
Tango T, Takahashi K. A flexibly shaped spatial scan statistic for detecting clusters[J]. International Journal of Health Geography, 2005, 4(4):11.
[27]
陈江平,张瑶,余远剑.空间自相关的可塑性面积单元问题效应[J]. 地理学报,2011,66(12):1597-1606.[Chen Jiangping, Zhang Yao, Yu Yuanjian. Effect of MAUP in spatial autocorrelation[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011,66(12):1597-1606.]
[26]
王泽宇,孙然,韩增林,等.中国人口老龄化水平测度与空间关联研究[J].地域研究与开发,2013,32(3):138-143.[Wang Zeyu, Sun Ran, Han Zenglin, et al. Research on the measure of Chinese population aging and spatial correlation[J]. Areal Research and Development, 2013,32(3):138-143.]
[27]
陈江平,张瑶,余远剑.空间自相关的可塑性面积单元问题效应[J]. 地理学报,2011,66(12):1597-1606.[Chen Jiangping, Zhang Yao, Yu Yuanjian. Effect of MAUP in spatial autocorrelation[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011,66(12):1597-1606.]
[28]
Besag J, Newell J. The detection of clusters in rare diseases[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society, 1991,154(1):143-155.
[33]
Takahashi K, Kulldorff M, Tango T, et al. A flexibly shaped spacetime scan statistic for disease outbreak detection and monitoring[J]. International Journal of Health Geography, 2008,7(7):14.
[27]
陈江平,张瑶,余远剑.空间自相关的可塑性面积单元问题效应[J]. 地理学报,2011,66(12):1597-1606.[Chen Jiangping, Zhang Yao, Yu Yuanjian. Effect of MAUP in spatial autocorrelation[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011,66(12):1597-1606.]
[28]
Besag J, Newell J. The detection of clusters in rare diseases[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society, 1991,154(1):143-155.
[29]
Kulldorff M, Nagarwalla N. Spatial disease clusters:Detection and inference[J]. Statistics in Medicine, 1995,14(8):799-810.
[34]
Kulldorff M, Huang L, Pickle L, et al. An elliptic spatial scan statistic[J]. Statistical of Medicine, 2006,25(22):3929-3943.
[28]
Besag J, Newell J. The detection of clusters in rare diseases[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society, 1991,154(1):143-155.
[29]
Kulldorff M, Nagarwalla N. Spatial disease clusters:Detection and inference[J]. Statistics in Medicine, 1995,14(8):799-810.
[30]
Naus J. The distribution of the size of maximum cluster of points on the line[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1965, 60(310):532-538.
[35]
Tango T. A spatial scan statistic with a restricted likelihood ratio[J]. Japanese Journal of Biometrics, 2008,29(2):75-95.
[29]
Kulldorff M, Nagarwalla N. Spatial disease clusters:Detection and inference[J]. Statistics in Medicine, 1995,14(8):799-810.
[30]
Naus J. The distribution of the size of maximum cluster of points on the line[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1965, 60(310):532-538.
[31]
殷菲.时-空扫描统计量在传染病早期预警中的应用研究[D].成都:四川大学,2007:120-125.[Yin Fei. A Study on the Applicability of Space-time Scan Statistic in Early Warning of Infectious Disease[D].Chengdu:Sichuan University, 2007:120-125.]
[30]
Naus J. The distribution of the size of maximum cluster of points on the line[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1965, 60(310):532-538.
[31]
殷菲.时-空扫描统计量在传染病早期预警中的应用研究[D].成都:四川大学,2007:120-125.[Yin Fei. A Study on the Applicability of Space-time Scan Statistic in Early Warning of Infectious Disease[D].Chengdu:Sichuan University, 2007:120-125.]
[32]
Tango T, Takahashi K. A flexibly shaped spatial scan statistic for detecting clusters[J]. International Journal of Health Geography, 2005, 4(4):11.
[31]
殷菲.时-空扫描统计量在传染病早期预警中的应用研究[D].成都:四川大学,2007:120-125.[Yin Fei. A Study on the Applicability of Space-time Scan Statistic in Early Warning of Infectious Disease[D].Chengdu:Sichuan University, 2007:120-125.]
[32]
Tango T, Takahashi K. A flexibly shaped spatial scan statistic for detecting clusters[J]. International Journal of Health Geography, 2005, 4(4):11.
[33]
Takahashi K, Kulldorff M, Tango T, et al. A flexibly shaped spacetime scan statistic for disease outbreak detection and monitoring[J]. International Journal of Health Geography, 2008,7(7):14.
[32]
Tango T, Takahashi K. A flexibly shaped spatial scan statistic for detecting clusters[J]. International Journal of Health Geography, 2005, 4(4):11.
[33]
Takahashi K, Kulldorff M, Tango T, et al. A flexibly shaped spacetime scan statistic for disease outbreak detection and monitoring[J]. International Journal of Health Geography, 2008,7(7):14.
[34]
Kulldorff M, Huang L, Pickle L, et al. An elliptic spatial scan statistic[J]. Statistical of Medicine, 2006,25(22):3929-3943.
[33]
Takahashi K, Kulldorff M, Tango T, et al. A flexibly shaped spacetime scan statistic for disease outbreak detection and monitoring[J]. International Journal of Health Geography, 2008,7(7):14.
[34]
Kulldorff M, Huang L, Pickle L, et al. An elliptic spatial scan statistic[J]. Statistical of Medicine, 2006,25(22):3929-3943.
[35]
Tango T. A spatial scan statistic with a restricted likelihood ratio[J]. Japanese Journal of Biometrics, 2008,29(2):75-95.
[34]
Kulldorff M, Huang L, Pickle L, et al. An elliptic spatial scan statistic[J]. Statistical of Medicine, 2006,25(22):3929-3943.
[35]
Tango T. A spatial scan statistic with a restricted likelihood ratio[J]. Japanese Journal of Biometrics, 2008,29(2):75-95.
[35]
Tango T. A spatial scan statistic with a restricted likelihood ratio[J]. Japanese Journal of Biometrics, 2008,29(2):75-95.
2018, Vol. 33 
