UPGRADING OF THE CONSUMPTION STRUCTURE AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY
ZHANG Pei-feng1,2, HE Can-fei1,2
1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; 2. The Peking University, Lincoln Institute Center for Urban Development and Land Policy, Beijing 100871, China
Abstract In recent years, China has committed itself to promoting high-quality development of regional economies, and how to realize this goal has become a hot topic of discussion among scholars. Economic complexity can be used to measure the quality of economic development by utilizing the complexity of technology and knowledge contained in economies at different scales, such as regions, industries or firms. The higher the economic complexity, the greater the complexity of the knowledge and technology at their disposal, and the more the economy tends to develop in a high-quality and innovation-driven direction. This paper explores the impact of consumption structure upgrading on regional economic complexity from a demand-side perspective. Consumption structure upgrading is the process of transforming residents' consumption from being dominated by survival-oriented products to development and hedonic products. We utilize the panel data of 31 provincial administrative regions in China during the period of 2000—2020, and adopt research methods such as ECI+ and price relative index. The study obtained the following findings: First, consumption structure upgrading can significantly enhance regional economic complexity; Second, the positive impact of consumption structure upgrading on regional economic complexity is realized through three mechanisms; Third, there is regional heterogeneity in the impact of consumption structure upgrading on regional economic complexity, the higher the degree of marketization and the lower the degree of market segmentation, the greater the positive impact of consumption structure upgrading.
高培勇,杜创,刘霞辉, 等.高质量发展背景下的现代化经济体系建设：一个逻辑框架[J]. 经济研究,2019,54(4):4-17. [Gao Peiyong, Du Chuang, Liu Xiahui, et al. The construction of a modern economic system in the context of high-quality development: A new framework[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2019,54(4):4-17.]
[2]
冉征,郑江淮. 创新能力与地区经济高质量发展——基于技术差异 视角 的分 析[J]. 上海 经济 研究, 2021(4): 84-99. [Ran Zheng, Zheng Jianghui. Innovation capability and high-quality development of regional economy: Based on the analysis of technology differences[J]. Shanghai Journal of Economics, 2021(4):84-99.]
[3]
Hausmann R, Hwang J, Rodrik D. What you export matters[J]. Journal of Economic Growth, 2007,12:1-25.
[4]
Chu T H, Stocker M L, Tan B J. Economic fitness: How equity market returns reflect the realization of economic growth potential[J]. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2021,26(1):1550-1562.
[5]
孙哲远,宋锋华,李翔. 营商环境、产业多样化与区域经济复杂度——基于创新效率视角[J]. 软科学,2022,36(8):17-23. [Sun Zheyuan, Song Fenghua, Li Xiang. Business environment, industrial diversification and regional economic complexity: From the perspective of innovation efficiency[J]. Soft Science, 2022,36(8):17-23.]
[6]
Avom D, Ndoya H. Does country stability spur economic complexity? Evidence from panel data[J]. Applied Economics Letters, 2024, 31(4): 323-329.
[7]
Ndoya H, Bakouan P. Does tax revenue improve economic complexity in Africa?[J]. Journal of Economic Integration, 2023,38(2):278-301.
[8]
Sahdev N K. Do knowledge externalities lead to growth in economic complexity? Empirical evidence from Colombia[J]. Palgrave Communications, 2016,2(1): 1-15.
[9]
贺灿飞,陈韬.供给侧路径、需求侧路径与出口比较优势提升[J].中国工业经济,2021(10):98-116. [He Canfei, Chen Tao. Supply-side path, demand-side path and evolution of comparative advantages [J]. China Industrial Economics, 2021(10):98-116.]
[10]
吴金龙,傅康生,白俊红,等.消费升级引领战略性新兴产业全球价值链攀升——理论逻辑与中国经验[J].经济学报,2023,10(3):195-240. [Wu Jinlong, Fu Kangsheng, Bai Junhong, et al. Consumption upgrading leads the global value chain of strategic emerging industries to rise: Theorical logic and Chinese experience[J]. China Journal of Economics, 2023,10(3):195-240.]
[11]
贺灿飞.区域产业发展演化：路径依赖还是路径创造？[J].地理研究,2018,37(7):1253-1267. [He Canfei. Regional industrial development and evolution: Path dependence or path creation? [J]. Geographical Research, 2018,37(7):1253-1267.]
[12]
Zhu S J, Li Z F, He C F. Who leads regional industrial dynamics? "New industry creators" in Chinese regions[J]. Growth and Change, 2019,50(1):69-89.
[13]
汪琼,蒋瑛.消费需求扩容升级助推全球价值链攀升[J].甘肃社会科学,2022(6): 169-179. [Wang Qiong, Jiang Ying. Expanding and upgrading consumer demand boosts climbing of global value chains [J]. Gansu Social Sciences, 2022(6):169-179.]
[14]
王一鸣. 百年大变局、高质量发展与构建新发展格局[J]. 管理世界,2020,36(12):1-13. [Wang Yiming. Changes unseen in a century, high-quality development, and the construction of a new development pattern[J]. Journal of Management World, 2020,36(12):1-13.]
[15]
王亚菲,王瑞,徐丽笑.国内大循环背景下流动人口消费潜力的经济效应测度[J]. 中国人口科学,2022(4):74-87,127-128. [Wang Yafei, Wang Rui, Xu Lixiao. Measuring economic effects of migrants' consumption potential under the background of domestic economic circulation[J]. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2022(4): 74-87,127-128.]
[16]
林毅夫,沈艳,孙昂. 中国政府消费券政策的经济效应[J]. 经济研究,2020,55(7):4-20. [Lin Yifu, Shen Yan, Sun Ang. Evaluating the stimulus effect of consumption vouchers in China[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2020,55(7):4-20.]
[17]
Bhuiyan M A, Zhang Q N, Khare V, et al. Renewable energy consumption and economic growth nexus: A systematic literature review[J]. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 2022,10:1-21.
[18]
Zhang D Y, Ma X X, Zhang J, et al. Can consumption drive industrial upgrades? Evidence from chinese household and firm matching data[J]. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2020,56(2):409-426.
[19]
Liu M, Hu H. Carbon emissions, consumption structure upgrading, and high-quality economic development: Empirical evidence from China[J]. Journal of The Asia Pacific Economy, 2024, 29(1): 237-259.
[20]
李文,张珍珍,梅蕾.消费升级背景下大数据能力对商业模式创新的影响机理——基于小米和网易严选的案例研究[J]. 管理案例研究与评论,2020,13(1):102-117. [Li Wen, Zhang Zhenzhen, Mei Lei. The influencing mechanism of big data capability on business model innovation under the background of consumption upgrading: A case study based on xiaomi and netease yanxuan[J]. Journal of Management Case Studies, 2020,13(1):102-117.]
[21]
Schmookler J. Invention and Economic Growth[M]. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1966:1-332.
[22]
韦志文,冯帆.本土市场规模与中国制造业创新效率——基于“需求引致创新”理论的实证检验[J].山西财经大学学报,2024,46(1): 69-83. [Wei Zhiwen, Fen Fan. Local market size and innovation efficiency of chinese manufacturing industry: Empirical test based on the theory of "demand inducing innovation"[J]. Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, 2024,46(1):69-83.]
[23]
马广程,曹建华.消费需求质量升级提升了中国出口技术复杂度吗——基于“双循环”视角下的本地市场效应验证[J]. 国际经贸探索,2022,38(8):20-35. [Ma Guangcheng, Cao Jianhua. Does the upgrading of consumer demand quality promote China's export technological sophistication: Local market effect verification from the perspective of dual circulation[J]. International Economics and Trade Research, 2022,38(8):20-35.]
[24]
Beerli A, Weiss F J, Zilibotti F, et al. Demand forces of technical change evidence from the Chinese manufacturing industry[J]. China Economic Review, 2020,60:1-32.
[25]
董一一,宋宇. 产品生产能力提升、生产结构复杂性与经济增长——基于产品空间理论的实证分析[J].山西财经大学学报,2023, 45(6):14-32. [Dong Yiyi, Song Yu. Product production capacity enhancement, production structure complexity and economic growth: Empirical analysis based on the product space theory[J]. Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, 2023,45(6):14-32.]
[26]
张其仔,伍业君,王磊. 互联网、创新与经济复杂度——基于产品空间视角[J].财贸经济,2023,44(7):108-123. [Zhang Qizai, Wu Yejun, Wang Lei. How does internet use increase the economic complexity level? A study from the perspective of the product space[J]. Finance & Trade Economics, 2023,44(7):108-123.]
[27]
褚旭,李丛杉,白云涛. 内循环赋能：本土市场竞争驱动企业逆向创新[J]. 经济管理,2023,45(10):70-90. [Chu Xu, Li Congshan, Bai Yuntao. Internal circulation empowerment: The driving effect of domestic market competition on corporate reverse innovation[J]. Business and Management Journal, 2023,45(10):70-90.]
[28]
Hidalgo C A, Hausmann R. The building blocks of economic complexity[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009, 106(26):10570-10575.
[29]
樊纲,王小鲁,张立文等.中国各地区市场化相对进程报告[J].经济研究,2003(3):9-18,89. [Fan Gang, Wang Xiaolu, Zhang Liwen, et al. Marketization index for china's provinces[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2003(3):9-18,89.]
[30]
张维迎. 市场的逻辑与中国的变革[J]. 探索与争鸣,2011(2):8-11. [Zhang Weiying. The logic of markets and change in China[J]. Exploration and Free Views, 2011(2):8-11.]
[31]
陆铭,陈钊.分割市场的经济增长——为什么经济开放可能加剧地方保护？[J]. 经济研究,2009,44(3):42-52. [Lu Ming, Chen Zhao. Fragmented growth: Why economic opening may worsen domestic market segmentation?[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2009,44(3):42-52.]
[32]
杨伟明,粟麟,孙瑞立,等.数字金融是否促进了消费升级？——基于面板数据的证据[J].国际金融研究,2021(4):13-22. [Yang Weiming, Su Lin, Sun Ruili, Yuan Weipeng. Has digital finance promoted consumption upgrading? Evidence based on panel data[J]. Studies of International Finance, 2021(4):13-22.]
[33]
任卓然,贺灿飞,王文宇.演化经济地理视角下的经济复杂度与区域经济发展研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展,2021,40(12):2101-2115. [Ren Zhuoran, He Canfei, Wang Wenyu. Progress of research on economic complexity and regional economic development in the perspective of evolutionary economic geography[J]. Progress in Geography, 2021,40(12):2101-2115.]
[34]
Tacchella A, Cristelli M, Caldarelli G, et al. A new metrics for countries' fitness and products' complexity[J]. Scientific Reports, 2012, 2(1):1-7.
[35]
Albeaik S, Kaltenberg M, Alsaleh M, et al. Improving theeconomic complexity index[EB/OL]. (2017-07-18)[2020-12-02]. https://arxiv. org/abs/1707.05826.
Krugman P. Scale economies, product differentiation, and the pattern of trade[J]. American Economic Review, 1980,70(5):950-959.
[38]
Melitz M J. The impact of trade on intra‐industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity[J]. Econometrica, 2003,71(6):1695-1725.
[39]
Kan D. Measuring the home market effects of Sino-Japanese service trade[J]. South China Journal of Economics, 2013,3:8.
[40]
万晓宁.中国对外贸易本地市场效应及其假设前提的验证[J].产经评论,2015,6(2):126-136.[Wan Xiaojing. The home marketeffect of foreign trade of china and verification of hypothesis[J]. Industrial Economic Review, 2015,6(2):126-136.]
[41]
Guo J H, He C F, Ren Z R. Evolution of regional export growth in China: A multidimensional decomposition of export dynamics[J]. The Professional Geographer, 2022,74(2):314-326.
[42]
伍业君,王磊,赵庆国.中国地区经济复杂度的影响因素分析[J].现代财经(天津财经大学学报),2013,33(1):11-20. [Wu Yejun, Wang Lei, Zhao Qingguo. Analysis on Influencing Factor of Regional Economic Complexity in China[J]. Modern Finance and Economics-Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, 2013, 33(1):11-20.]
[43]
张兵兵,陈思琪,闫志俊.智慧城市建设如何驱动区域出口经济复杂度提升?[J]. 世界经济研究,2023(3):31-45,134. [Zhang Bingbing, Chen Siqi, Yan Junzhi. How does the construction of smart cites drive the complexity of regional export economy? [J]. World Economy Studies, 2023(3):31-45,134.]
[44]
Zhu S J, Wang C, He C F. High-speed rail network and changing industrial dynamics in Chinese regions[J]. International Regional Science Review, 2019,42(5/6):495-518.
[45]
Baron R M, Kenny D A. The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations[J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1986,51(6):1173-1182.
[46]
Angrist J D, Pischke J S. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion[M]. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009:1-314.
[47]
江艇.因果推断经验研究中的中介效应与调节效应[J].中国工业经济,2022(5):100-120. [Jiang Ting. Mediating effects and moderating effects in causal inference[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2022(5):100-120.]
[48]
Dell M. The persistent effects of Peru's mining mita[J]. Econometrica, 2010,78(6):1863-1903.
[49]
乔榛,徐宏鑫.居民收入增长、分配结构与消费升级：基于中国经验的分析[J]. 社会科学战线,2023(1):62-72. [Qiao Zhen, Xu Hongxin. Resident income growth, distribution structure and consumption upgrading: An analysis based on the Chinese experience [J]. Social Science Front, 2023(1):62-72.]
2025, Vol. 40 
