以中国274个地市为样本，引入空间分析和计量模型等方法，分析外资分布特点及影响因素，结果表明：①中国目前尚不存在大规模外资"逃离"现象，外资利用总量在波动中上升，结构趋于优化。②空间上由集聚集中趋向分散均衡，呈"北进西移"态势，东部高度集中，中西部发展较快。外资高值集聚区逐渐向北推进，低值区向西南收缩；③劳动力成本、市场规模、专业化经济、FDI累积、市场化水平和开放度均对外资有正向作用。其中，传统因素对外资的吸引作用正逐渐下降，FDI累积的作用上升明显，集聚对外资分布作用显著。从不同区域看，集聚经济和FDI累积效应等新经济地理因素在东部外资区位选择中受到更多的关注，而劳动力成本、基础设施、开放水平等传统因素在中西部吸引外资中作用更大。④中国应遵循因地制宜、因时制宜的原则制定差异化的外资政策。
Abstract
Based on the data of 274 cities in China, and using the methods of Gini coefficient, gravity analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis and panel regression methods, this paper investigates the spatiotemporal features and influence factors of FDI location in China. The main conclusions are as following:1)At present, there is no large-scale "escape" phenomenon in China. The volatility of total FDI in China is rising and the structure of FDI tends to optimize. 2)From the spatial perspective, The distribution of foreign investment in China has gradually changed from centralization to decentralization. FDI is highly concentrated in the East of China, but its rapid development in the central and western regions has made the dispersed pattern. The FDI location distribution of gravity center is moving to the north and west, and the north moving is faster than the west moving. The hot spot of foreign capital is gradually advancing northward, while the cold zone shrinks to southwest. 3)With reference to the new classical trade theory and the new economic geographies, taking the actual use of FDI as the explanatory variable, and selecting Labor cost, infrastructure, market size, agglomeration effect, cumulative effect, openness, marketization as the explanatory factors, we established a fixed effect model to explain the FDI location choice in the national level, eastern, central, western regions and different stages respectively. We found that the effect of different factors on FDI location choice showed great differences in different regions and stages.
关键词
外商直接投资 /
FDI /
比较优势 /
集聚经济 /
制度政策
Key words
FDI /
comparative advantage /
agglomeration economy /
institutional policy
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基金
国家自然科学基金项目（41430637）；江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目（2017SJB1538）
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