区域一体化视角下异地养老时空演化及分异机理——以长三角地区为例

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2023.06.009

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摘要异地养老对解决人口负增长所衍生的养老难题具有重要价值。通过构建异地养老发展的理论框架，运用核密度分析、地理探测器、地理加权回归等方法，刻画了 2005—2020年长三角异地养老的时空演化格局，归纳了异地养老发展的地域分异特征，揭示了其与环境、文化、社会因素间的作用机理。结果表明：①长三角异地养老的整体发展方向表现为由数量增长向结构优化、特色化培育转型，高密度核心区也由上海“单极核心”分别向宁、杭南北两翼扩展。②可从环境舒适性、社会舒适性、文化舒适性 3 个维度综合识别异地养老的影响因子。其中，医疗资源和交通条件是长三角异地养老空间分异的主导因素，社会开放度和自然风景次之，传统文化资源和气候条件的影响力相对较弱。交互探测结果表明，双因子驱动力强于单因子作用，交互作用类型以双因子增强为主。③各因素的影响效应和作用路径具有空间异质性，环境舒适性、社会舒适性对安徽、江苏北部的影响较大，文化舒适性主要对浙江沿海地区和安徽北部地区产生影响。

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	周榕

关键词 ：区域一体化, 异地养老, 时空演化, 分异机理, 长三角

Abstract：Off-site elderly care is of great value to solve the elderly care problem derived from negative population growth. By constructing a theoretical framework for the development of off-site elderly care, and using kernel density analysis, geographical detector, geographical weighted regression and other methods, this paper describes the spatial and temporal evolution pattern of off-site elderly care in the Yangtze River Delta from 2005 to 2020, summarizes the regional differentiation characteristics of the development of off-site elderly care, and reveals the mechanism of its interaction with environmental, cultural and social factors. The results show that: 1) The overall development direction of the off-site elderly care in the Yangtze River Delta is represented by the transformation from quantitative growth to structural optimization and specialty cultivation. 2) The factors affecting the off-site elderly care can be comprehensively identified from the three dimensions of environmental comfort, social comfort and cultural comfort. Among them, medical resources and transportation conditions are the leading factors for spatial differentiation of off-site elderly care in the Yangtze River Delta, followed by social openness and natural scenery, and the influence of traditional cultural resources and climate conditions is relatively weak. 3) The effects and pathways of each factor have spatial heterogeneity.

Key words： regional integration off-site elderly care spatio-temporal evolution differentiation mechanism Yangtze River Delta

收稿日期: 2022-10-31

PACS:

K901.3

基金资助:国家社会科学基金项目（21CZZ024）

作者简介: 周榕(1992-),女,江苏太仓人,博士,讲师,主要研究方向为社会地理学、人口地理学。E-mail:zhourong9269@hotmail.com。

引用本文:

周榕. 区域一体化视角下异地养老时空演化及分异机理——以长三角地区为例[J]. 人文地理, 2023, 38(6): 73-81,159. ZHOU Rong. SPATIO-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION AND DIFFERENTIATION MECHANISM OF OFF-SITE ELDERLY CARE FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF REGIONAL INTEGRATION: A CASE OF THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2023, 38(6): 73-81,159.

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http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2023.06.009 或 http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/Y2023/V38/I6/73

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