中国东部地区向中国内陆及周边国家的产业转移方兴未艾,很有可能发展成为全球第四次产业转移浪潮,而制造业的区域转移是该过程的主体。本文对中国制造业不同尺度的份额变化及其影响因素进行讨论并对二者关系进行计量分析,得出以下结论:第一,制造业重心基本空间格局未发生变化,但已发生明显的份额变化;第二,制造业份额变化涉及多个空间层面,并遵循随经济发展水平增长而降低的梯度原则;第三,根据2001年和2009年中国地市级尺度制造业份额变化及其影响要素间关系的理论分析和计量研究结果,中国区域制造业份额与经济发展水平呈现倒U型关系,且仍对低成本劳动力具有一定的依赖性,而交通设施改善对于制造业份额的增长具有显著的正向效应。

This paper compared the share change of Chinese manufacturing in 2001 and 2009 on different scales, and did an empirical analysis between the impacting factors and the share change on the municipal level. According to the theoretical analysis and assumptions between the change of manufacturing share on municipal scale and its impacting factors, which including economic developing level, labor wage, traffic facilities etc., this paper established the econometric model and carried out the Weighted Least Squares (WLS) regression. The results showed variously useful information: 1) the regional manufacturing share and the level of economic development has relationship as an inverted U shape, e.g. regional manufacturing share increase firstly and then decrease as the economic developing level rises; 2) the current manufacturing industry still has a certain dependence on the labor of low cost; 3) the improvement of traffic facilities have significant positive effects on the growth in the manufacturing share; 4) the impact of regional level of opening up on the share of manufacturing is not significant.