Abstract：It is generally considered that the tourism development would accelerate the process of urbanization and vice versa. This paper uses quantitative method, which has not been adopted in the previous studies, to examine the relationship between urbanization and tourism development in the context of China which is an international tourist destination. Using the data from 1978, when the open-up policy was implemented in china, to 2007, and analyzing the data with econometric methods including cointegration, Granger causality tests and variance decomposition, the authors set up a model of the relationship between urbanization and tourism development. The proportion of urban population is assumed to indicate the level of the urbanization and the foreign exchange earnings from international tourism is assumed to reveal the level of development of the tourism industry. The result of unit-root test shows that it is ideal for China if there is a lag of 2 years between tourism development and urbanization. That means the development of tourism industry should have 2 years later than urbanization. So, it indicates that there appears to be the incoordination between revenue of foreign exchange from tourism industry and the growth of urban population. The long-term analysis shows that long-term relationship of equilibrium between the development of tourism industry and urbanization does not exist. Furthermore, the researchers apply the Granger causality tests to examine the rationality of the model. The result indicates that there is no causality between tourism development and urbanization in China. Moreover, the authors analyze why Granger causality tests fail to demonstrate the result of the previous research. The reasons include (1) the restriction of the samples and the data; (2) the imbalance development in China; (3) the government oriented development strategies for the tourism industry, and (4) the highly sensitive nature of tourism industry.
徐洁, 华钢, 胡平. 城市化水平与旅游发展之关系初探——基于我国改革开放三十年的时间序列动态计量分析[J]. 人文地理, 2010, 25(2): 85-90.
XU Jie, HUA Gang, HU Ping. STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF CHINA: A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF CHRONOLOGICAL DATA FROM 1978. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2010, 25(2): 85-90.
