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| SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC CONCENTRATION AND CONVERGENCE IN JIANGSU PROVINCE |
| NIU Pin-yi, LU Yu-qi |
| College of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China |
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Abstract By using the approach of exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric methods,the Spatial Correlation and convergence of economic growth among the 65 counties of Jiangsu province are tested. (1)Through calculated Moran's I,the study find the real GDP per capita in 1993-2009 years show more and more global positive correlation,and Local spatial correlation has strengthened. Moran's I has the tendency of increase slightly,it increases from 0.6533 in 1993 to 0.7285 in 2003,the highest level. Moran's I value fluctuate in 0.72 in the next few years. This shows that the spatial concentration of the economy in Jiangsu Province should stabilize behind its growth. (2)Economy of Jiangsu Province has become increasingly strong spatial autocorrelation,high value areas concentrate in the southern,low value areas concentrate in the North region,and the number of concentration has increased,significance level of the regional spatial concentration greatly increased.(3)If using the traditional β-convergence equation would make the estimated results appear biased and inconsistent. So this required compare Lagrange multipliers to test the use of spatial lag model or spatial error model. The period 1993-2000 and 1993-2009,the spatial lag model is the best model; the period 2001-2009,the spatial error model is the optimal model. Spatial econometric analysis showed that the economy in Jiangsu Province exist β convergence,the results are statistically more significant than the traditional method of measuring,and the convergence is faster. Sub-period study found that different space-time the models of convergence are different,there are differences in the convergence rate too. (4)From the convergent mechanism,the convergence of technology diffusion expounded by the new growth theory is dominant during the early period of the study period. Investment marginal return rate decreased emphasized by neoclassical growth theory is dominant during the later period of the study period. These studies are instructive on the establishment of regional economic policy.
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Received: 05 December 2011
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2013, Vol. 28 
