基于环境犯罪学理论的入室盗窃时空分布研究——以北京市主城区案件的分析为例

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2018.01.006

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摘要以往关于犯罪时空特征的研究较多的侧重于对犯罪时空分布现象的描述分析以及从人文地理视角下的环境影响性分析，但缺少从环境要素与犯罪主体行为之间的相互作用机制下的犯罪时空特征研究。本文通过开展北京市入室盗窃案件的时空热点实证分析，总结和归纳了案件热点环境的时空要素类型，并基于环境犯罪学的基本原理，构建了基于犯罪主体与环境影响要素相互作用的犯罪时空分布机制，其中，环境对犯罪主体的影响主要表现为四类要素，即目标、交通、防范和作案时机。这些研究可以为下一步开展犯罪模拟以及犯罪预防提供借鉴。

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关键词 ：环境犯罪学, 入室盗窃, 时空分布, 犯罪行为, 环境要素

Abstract：Previous studies about the spatial-temporal characteristics of crime were more focused on the description of spatial-temporal distributions and environment analysis in the perspective of human geography, but research on the interaction mechanism between criminal behaviors and environment for the spatio-temporal characteristics is still insufficient. With burglary data of Beijing region in 2013, an analyzation was made in this paper to explore the regularity of burglary crime in Beijing. First, crime hotspots are revealed by kernel destiny mapping of all burglary incidents, and six crime hotspots with highest destiny were selected to make a further analysis at a micro level. Three area types are as follows:cottage and constructions sites, crowded public areas, residential area which closed to main road. Mechanism of crime spatio-temporal distributions between subject of crime and environmental factors was constructed based on the criminal environment theory. In this mechanism, the effect of environment on the subject of crime mainly include four elements, namely the target, traffic, crime prevention measures and the opportunity. Targets distribution and convenient transportation help to improve the subject of crime proceeds of crime, which has a positive reinforcement for the criminal behaviors; crime prevention measures and opportunity make the subject of crime to avoid risk, which has a negative reinforcement for the criminal behaviors.

Key words： environmental criminology burglary spatio-temporal distributions criminal behaviors environmental factors

收稿日期: 2016-12-06

基金资助:

公安部公安发展战略研究所招标项目（2016JKF03106）；“十二五”科技支撑计划课题（2015BAK10B04，2015BAK12B03）

通讯作者: 陈鹏(1981-),男,辽宁营口人,副教授,主要研究方向为犯罪地理与空间情报分析。E-mail:chenpeng@ppsuc.edu.cn。 E-mail: chenpeng@ppsuc.edu.cn

作者简介: 徐嘉祥(1996-),男,安徽阜阳人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为犯罪地理和犯罪数据挖掘。E-mail:xujxxyl@163.com。

引用本文:

徐嘉祥, 陈鹏, 陈建国. 基于环境犯罪学理论的入室盗窃时空分布研究——以北京市主城区案件的分析为例[J]. 人文地理, 2018, 33(1): 43-50. XU Jia-xiang, CHEN Peng, CHEN Jian-guo. RESEARCH ON SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF BURGLARY BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENTAL CRIMINOLOGY: BASED ON THE ANALYSIS OF CRIME IN BEIJING. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 33(1): 43-50.

链接本文:

http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2018.01.006 或 http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/Y2018/V33/I1/43

[4]	Johnson S D,Bowers K J.The burglary as clue to the future:The beginnings of prospective hot-spotting[J].European Journal of Criminology,2004,1(2):237-255.
[5]	王占宏.基于扫描统计方法的上海犯罪时空热点分析[D].上海:华东师范大学,2013.[Wang Zhanhong.Temporal-spatial Hot Spot Analysis on Crime Cases Based on Scan Statistics Methodologies in Shanghai[D].Shanghai:East China Normal University,2013.]
[6]	徐冲,柳林,周素红,等.DP半岛街头抢劫犯罪案件热点时空模式[J].地理学报,2013,68(12):1714-1723.[Xu Chong,Liu Lin,Zhou Suhong,et al.The spatio-temporal patterns of street robbery in DP peninsula[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(12):1714-1723.]
[7]	李业锦,朱红.北京社会治安公共安全空间结构及其影响机制——以城市110警情为例[J].地理研究,2013,32(5):870-880.[Li Yejin,Zhu Hong.Spatial distribution and influencing mechanism of social and public security:An urban security spatial analysis based on from city crime alarm data[J].Geographical Reasearch,2013,32(5):870-880.]
[1]	Ratcliffe J H.The hotspot matrix:A framework for the spatio-temporal targeting of crime reduction[J].Police Practice and Research,2004,5(1):5-23.
[2]	Johnson S D,Bernasco W,Bowers K J,et al.Space-time patterns of risk:A cross national assessment of residential burglary victimization[J].Journal of Quantitative Criminology,2007,23(3):201-219.
[8]	冯健,黄琳珊,董颖,等.城市犯罪时空特征与机制——以北京城八区财产类犯罪为例[J].地理学报,2012,67(12):1645-1656.[Feng Jian,Huang Linshan,Dong Ying,et al.Research on the spatial-temporal characteristics and mechanism of urban crime:A case study of property crime in Beijing[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(12):1645-1656.]
[9]	王发曾.城市犯罪中的公共空间盲区及其综合治理[J].人文地理,2003,18(3):8-12.[Wang Fazeng.The public spatial blind area in urban crime and its comprehensive treatment[J].Human Geography,2003,18(3):8-12.]
[10]	王发曾.城市建筑空间设计的犯罪防控效应[J].地理研究,2006,25(4):681-691.[Wang Fazeng.The effect of anticrime in urban building-space designing[J].Geographical Research,2006,25(4):681-691.]
[11]	王发曾.城市犯罪的移动空间盲区及其综合治理[J].河北法学,2007,25(11):18-21.[Wang Fazeng.The moving spatial blind area in urban crime and its comprehensive treatment[J].Hebei Law Science,2007,25(11):18-21.]
[12]	王发曾.城市犯罪空间盲区的综合治理研究[J].地理研究,2010,29(1):57-67.[Wang Fazeng.Study on the comprehensive treatment of spatial blind areas in urban crime[J].Geographical Reasearch,2010,29(1):57-67.]
[1]	Ratcliffe J H.The hotspot matrix:A framework for the spatio-temporal targeting of crime reduction[J].Police Practice and Research,2004,5(1):5-23.
[2]	Johnson S D,Bernasco W,Bowers K J,et al.Space-time patterns of risk:A cross national assessment of residential burglary victimization[J].Journal of Quantitative Criminology,2007,23(3):201-219.
[3]	Johnson S D.Repeat burglary victimisation:A tale of two theories[J].Journal of Experimental Criminology,2008,4(3):215-240.
[13]	Cohen L E,Felson M.Social change and crime rate trends:A routine activity approach[J].American Sociological Review,1979,44(4):588-608.
[2]	Johnson S D,Bernasco W,Bowers K J,et al.Space-time patterns of risk:A cross national assessment of residential burglary victimization[J].Journal of Quantitative Criminology,2007,23(3):201-219.
[3]	Johnson S D.Repeat burglary victimisation:A tale of two theories[J].Journal of Experimental Criminology,2008,4(3):215-240.
[4]	Johnson S D,Bowers K J.The burglary as clue to the future:The beginnings of prospective hot-spotting[J].European Journal of Criminology,2004,1(2):237-255.
[14]	Cornish D B,Clarke R V.The Reasoning Criminal:Rational Choice Perspectives on Offending[M].Piscataway,New Jersey:Transaction Publishers,2014.
[5]	王占宏.基于扫描统计方法的上海犯罪时空热点分析[D].上海:华东师范大学,2013.[Wang Zhanhong.Temporal-spatial Hot Spot Analysis on Crime Cases Based on Scan Statistics Methodologies in Shanghai[D].Shanghai:East China Normal University,2013.]
[6]	徐冲,柳林,周素红,等.DP半岛街头抢劫犯罪案件热点时空模式[J].地理学报,2013,68(12):1714-1723.[Xu Chong,Liu Lin,Zhou Suhong,et al.The spatio-temporal patterns of street robbery in DP peninsula[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(12):1714-1723.]
[7]	李业锦,朱红.北京社会治安公共安全空间结构及其影响机制——以城市110警情为例[J].地理研究,2013,32(5):870-880.[Li Yejin,Zhu Hong.Spatial distribution and influencing mechanism of social and public security:An urban security spatial analysis based on from city crime alarm data[J].Geographical Reasearch,2013,32(5):870-880.]
[3]	Johnson S D.Repeat burglary victimisation:A tale of two theories[J].Journal of Experimental Criminology,2008,4(3):215-240.
[8]	冯健,黄琳珊,董颖,等.城市犯罪时空特征与机制——以北京城八区财产类犯罪为例[J].地理学报,2012,67(12):1645-1656.[Feng Jian,Huang Linshan,Dong Ying,et al.Research on the spatial-temporal characteristics and mechanism of urban crime:A case study of property crime in Beijing[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(12):1645-1656.]
[9]	王发曾.城市犯罪中的公共空间盲区及其综合治理[J].人文地理,2003,18(3):8-12.[Wang Fazeng.The public spatial blind area in urban crime and its comprehensive treatment[J].Human Geography,2003,18(3):8-12.]
[10]	王发曾.城市建筑空间设计的犯罪防控效应[J].地理研究,2006,25(4):681-691.[Wang Fazeng.The effect of anticrime in urban building-space designing[J].Geographical Research,2006,25(4):681-691.]
[11]	王发曾.城市犯罪的移动空间盲区及其综合治理[J].河北法学,2007,25(11):18-21.[Wang Fazeng.The moving spatial blind area in urban crime and its comprehensive treatment[J].Hebei Law Science,2007,25(11):18-21.]
[15]	刘成.可防卫空间理论与犯罪防预性环境设计[J].华中科技大学学报(城市科学版),2004(4):88-92.[Liu Cheng.Defensible space theory and crime prevention through environmental design[J].Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology (Urban Science Edition),2004(4):88-92.]
[12]	王发曾.城市犯罪空间盲区的综合治理研究[J].地理研究,2010,29(1):57-67.[Wang Fazeng.Study on the comprehensive treatment of spatial blind areas in urban crime[J].Geographical Reasearch,2010,29(1):57-67.]
[16]	单勇.城市中心区犯罪热点制图与防卫空间设计[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2014(2):87-99.[Shan Yong.Crime hotspot mapping and defensible space designing in urban center area[J].Jilin University Journal Social Sciences Edition,2014(2):87-99.]
[17]	Chainey S,Ratcliffe J.地理信息系统与犯罪制图[M].陈鹏,等译.北京:中国人民公安大学出版社,2014:59-60.[Chainey S,Ratcliffe J.GIS and Crime Mapping[M].Chen Peng,et al,trans.Beijing:Chinese People's Public Security University Press,2014:59-60.]
[18]	陈鹏,李欣,胡啸峰,等.北京市长安街沿线的扒窃案件高发区分析及防控对策[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(10):1250-1258.[Chen Peng,Li Xin,Hu Xiaofeng,et al.Clustering pattern analysis and prevention strategies to pickpocketing offence along the Chang'an Street in Beijing[J].Progress in Geography,2015,34(10):1250-1258.]
[4]	Johnson S D,Bowers K J.The burglary as clue to the future:The beginnings of prospective hot-spotting[J].European Journal of Criminology,2004,1(2):237-255.
[5]	王占宏.基于扫描统计方法的上海犯罪时空热点分析[D].上海:华东师范大学,2013.[Wang Zhanhong.Temporal-spatial Hot Spot Analysis on Crime Cases Based on Scan Statistics Methodologies in Shanghai[D].Shanghai:East China Normal University,2013.]
[6]	徐冲,柳林,周素红,等.DP半岛街头抢劫犯罪案件热点时空模式[J].地理学报,2013,68(12):1714-1723.[Xu Chong,Liu Lin,Zhou Suhong,et al.The spatio-temporal patterns of street robbery in DP peninsula[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(12):1714-1723.]
[7]	李业锦,朱红.北京社会治安公共安全空间结构及其影响机制——以城市110警情为例[J].地理研究,2013,32(5):870-880.[Li Yejin,Zhu Hong.Spatial distribution and influencing mechanism of social and public security:An urban security spatial analysis based on from city crime alarm data[J].Geographical Reasearch,2013,32(5):870-880.]
[8]	冯健,黄琳珊,董颖,等.城市犯罪时空特征与机制——以北京城八区财产类犯罪为例[J].地理学报,2012,67(12):1645-1656.[Feng Jian,Huang Linshan,Dong Ying,et al.Research on the spatial-temporal characteristics and mechanism of urban crime:A case study of property crime in Beijing[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(12):1645-1656.]
[9]	王发曾.城市犯罪中的公共空间盲区及其综合治理[J].人文地理,2003,18(3):8-12.[Wang Fazeng.The public spatial blind area in urban crime and its comprehensive treatment[J].Human Geography,2003,18(3):8-12.]
[10]	王发曾.城市建筑空间设计的犯罪防控效应[J].地理研究,2006,25(4):681-691.[Wang Fazeng.The effect of anticrime in urban building-space designing[J].Geographical Research,2006,25(4):681-691.]
[11]	王发曾.城市犯罪的移动空间盲区及其综合治理[J].河北法学,2007,25(11):18-21.[Wang Fazeng.The moving spatial blind area in urban crime and its comprehensive treatment[J].Hebei Law Science,2007,25(11):18-21.]
[12]	王发曾.城市犯罪空间盲区的综合治理研究[J].地理研究,2010,29(1):57-67.[Wang Fazeng.Study on the comprehensive treatment of spatial blind areas in urban crime[J].Geographical Reasearch,2010,29(1):57-67.]
[4]	Johnson S D,Bowers K J.The burglary as clue to the future:The beginnings of prospective hot-spotting[J].European Journal of Criminology,2004,1(2):237-255.
[5]	王占宏.基于扫描统计方法的上海犯罪时空热点分析[D].上海:华东师范大学,2013.[Wang Zhanhong.Temporal-spatial Hot Spot Analysis on Crime Cases Based on Scan Statistics Methodologies in Shanghai[D].Shanghai:East China Normal University,2013.]
[13]	Cohen L E,Felson M.Social change and crime rate trends:A routine activity approach[J].American Sociological Review,1979,44(4):588-608.
[6]	徐冲,柳林,周素红,等.DP半岛街头抢劫犯罪案件热点时空模式[J].地理学报,2013,68(12):1714-1723.[Xu Chong,Liu Lin,Zhou Suhong,et al.The spatio-temporal patterns of street robbery in DP peninsula[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(12):1714-1723.]
[7]	李业锦,朱红.北京社会治安公共安全空间结构及其影响机制——以城市110警情为例[J].地理研究,2013,32(5):870-880.[Li Yejin,Zhu Hong.Spatial distribution and influencing mechanism of social and public security:An urban security spatial analysis based on from city crime alarm data[J].Geographical Reasearch,2013,32(5):870-880.]
[19]	Brantingham P J,Brantingham P L.Criminality of place:Crime generators and crime attractors[J].European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research,1995,3(3):5-26.
[8]	冯健,黄琳珊,董颖,等.城市犯罪时空特征与机制——以北京城八区财产类犯罪为例[J].地理学报,2012,67(12):1645-1656.[Feng Jian,Huang Linshan,Dong Ying,et al.Research on the spatial-temporal characteristics and mechanism of urban crime:A case study of property crime in Beijing[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(12):1645-1656.]
[9]	王发曾.城市犯罪中的公共空间盲区及其综合治理[J].人文地理,2003,18(3):8-12.[Wang Fazeng.The public spatial blind area in urban crime and its comprehensive treatment[J].Human Geography,2003,18(3):8-12.]
[13]	Cohen L E,Felson M.Social change and crime rate trends:A routine activity approach[J].American Sociological Review,1979,44(4):588-608.
[14]	Cornish D B,Clarke R V.The Reasoning Criminal:Rational Choice Perspectives on Offending[M].Piscataway,New Jersey:Transaction Publishers,2014.
[14]	Cornish D B,Clarke R V.The Reasoning Criminal:Rational Choice Perspectives on Offending[M].Piscataway,New Jersey:Transaction Publishers,2014.
[10]	王发曾.城市建筑空间设计的犯罪防控效应[J].地理研究,2006,25(4):681-691.[Wang Fazeng.The effect of anticrime in urban building-space designing[J].Geographical Research,2006,25(4):681-691.]
[15]	刘成.可防卫空间理论与犯罪防预性环境设计[J].华中科技大学学报(城市科学版),2004(4):88-92.[Liu Cheng.Defensible space theory and crime prevention through environmental design[J].Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology (Urban Science Edition),2004(4):88-92.]
[20]	Johnson S D,Bowers K J.Permeability and burglary risk:Are culde-sacs safer?[J].Journal of Quantitative Criminology,2010,26(1):89-111.
[21]	刘大千,修春亮.国内外犯罪地理学研究进展评析[J].人文地理,2012,27(2):38-44.[Liu Daqian,Xiu Chunliang.Review of studies on criminal geography[J].Human Grography,2012,27(2):38-44.]
[22]	严小兵.上海市就业市场状况与城市犯罪的空间计量分析[J].人文地理,2013,28(3):85-90.[Yan Xiaobing.A spatial econometric analysis on local labor market and crime in Shanghai[J].Human Geography,2013,28(3):85-90.]
[15]	刘成.可防卫空间理论与犯罪防预性环境设计[J].华中科技大学学报(城市科学版),2004(4):88-92.[Liu Cheng.Defensible space theory and crime prevention through environmental design[J].Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology (Urban Science Edition),2004(4):88-92.]
[11]	王发曾.城市犯罪的移动空间盲区及其综合治理[J].河北法学,2007,25(11):18-21.[Wang Fazeng.The moving spatial blind area in urban crime and its comprehensive treatment[J].Hebei Law Science,2007,25(11):18-21.]
[16]	单勇.城市中心区犯罪热点制图与防卫空间设计[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2014(2):87-99.[Shan Yong.Crime hotspot mapping and defensible space designing in urban center area[J].Jilin University Journal Social Sciences Edition,2014(2):87-99.]
[16]	单勇.城市中心区犯罪热点制图与防卫空间设计[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2014(2):87-99.[Shan Yong.Crime hotspot mapping and defensible space designing in urban center area[J].Jilin University Journal Social Sciences Edition,2014(2):87-99.]
[12]	王发曾.城市犯罪空间盲区的综合治理研究[J].地理研究,2010,29(1):57-67.[Wang Fazeng.Study on the comprehensive treatment of spatial blind areas in urban crime[J].Geographical Reasearch,2010,29(1):57-67.]
[17]	Chainey S,Ratcliffe J.地理信息系统与犯罪制图[M].陈鹏,等译.北京:中国人民公安大学出版社,2014:59-60.[Chainey S,Ratcliffe J.GIS and Crime Mapping[M].Chen Peng,et al,trans.Beijing:Chinese People's Public Security University Press,2014:59-60.]
[17]	Chainey S,Ratcliffe J.地理信息系统与犯罪制图[M].陈鹏,等译.北京:中国人民公安大学出版社,2014:59-60.[Chainey S,Ratcliffe J.GIS and Crime Mapping[M].Chen Peng,et al,trans.Beijing:Chinese People's Public Security University Press,2014:59-60.]
[13]	Cohen L E,Felson M.Social change and crime rate trends:A routine activity approach[J].American Sociological Review,1979,44(4):588-608.
[18]	陈鹏,李欣,胡啸峰,等.北京市长安街沿线的扒窃案件高发区分析及防控对策[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(10):1250-1258.[Chen Peng,Li Xin,Hu Xiaofeng,et al.Clustering pattern analysis and prevention strategies to pickpocketing offence along the Chang'an Street in Beijing[J].Progress in Geography,2015,34(10):1250-1258.]
[18]	陈鹏,李欣,胡啸峰,等.北京市长安街沿线的扒窃案件高发区分析及防控对策[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(10):1250-1258.[Chen Peng,Li Xin,Hu Xiaofeng,et al.Clustering pattern analysis and prevention strategies to pickpocketing offence along the Chang'an Street in Beijing[J].Progress in Geography,2015,34(10):1250-1258.]
[19]	Brantingham P J,Brantingham P L.Criminality of place:Crime generators and crime attractors[J].European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research,1995,3(3):5-26.
[14]	Cornish D B,Clarke R V.The Reasoning Criminal:Rational Choice Perspectives on Offending[M].Piscataway,New Jersey:Transaction Publishers,2014.
[19]	Brantingham P J,Brantingham P L.Criminality of place:Crime generators and crime attractors[J].European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research,1995,3(3):5-26.
[20]	Johnson S D,Bowers K J.Permeability and burglary risk:Are culde-sacs safer?[J].Journal of Quantitative Criminology,2010,26(1):89-111.
[21]	刘大千,修春亮.国内外犯罪地理学研究进展评析[J].人文地理,2012,27(2):38-44.[Liu Daqian,Xiu Chunliang.Review of studies on criminal geography[J].Human Grography,2012,27(2):38-44.]
[22]	严小兵.上海市就业市场状况与城市犯罪的空间计量分析[J].人文地理,2013,28(3):85-90.[Yan Xiaobing.A spatial econometric analysis on local labor market and crime in Shanghai[J].Human Geography,2013,28(3):85-90.]
[15]	刘成.可防卫空间理论与犯罪防预性环境设计[J].华中科技大学学报(城市科学版),2004(4):88-92.[Liu Cheng.Defensible space theory and crime prevention through environmental design[J].Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology (Urban Science Edition),2004(4):88-92.]
[20]	Johnson S D,Bowers K J.Permeability and burglary risk:Are culde-sacs safer?[J].Journal of Quantitative Criminology,2010,26(1):89-111.
[21]	刘大千,修春亮.国内外犯罪地理学研究进展评析[J].人文地理,2012,27(2):38-44.[Liu Daqian,Xiu Chunliang.Review of studies on criminal geography[J].Human Grography,2012,27(2):38-44.]
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