经济发展与住宅市场异速增长时空格局及其形成机理——以长三角地区为例

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2022.03.015

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摘要住宅具有重要的社会稳定功能,其市场发展状况与经济增长关系是实现城市更高质量发展和畅通国内大循环的关键。本文以GDP表征经济发展,住宅价格和租金表征住宅市场发展状况,利用空间变差函数、异速增长模型和增强回归树模型探究2008—2018年长三角地区三者的时空格局及演化机理。研究表明:(1)长三角地区城市经济规模、住宅价格和住宅租金空间格局具有较强的稳定性,呈现出“一极多核”形态。(2)在纵向和横向异速上,经济规模—住宅价格、经济规模—住宅租金均以负异速增长为主,前者异速增长系数多高于后者。(3)在影响三者异速增长的因素中,科技发展水平、财政投入水平、城市人口规模、设施供给水平、产业发展水平和城乡收入差距是经济规模与住宅市场异速增长的主导因素;经济、人口、社会和行政等因素影响的差异性,在预期因素的催化下,使经济规模—住宅价格异速增长高于经济规模—住宅租金。

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关键词 ：经济规模, 住宅价格, 住宅租金, 异速增长, 长三角地区

Abstract：Housing has an important social stability function, and the relationship between its market development and economic growth is the key to achieving higher-quality urban development and smoothing the domestic cycle. Using spatial variogram, allometric growth model and enhanced regression tree model to explore the spatial and temporal patterns and evolution mechanism of the three in the Yangtze River Delta from 2008 to 2018. The results show that: 1) The spatial patterns of urban economic scale, residential prices, and residential rental in the Yangtze River Delta region have strong stability, showing a "one-pole multi-core" pattern. 2) In terms of vertical and horizontal heterogeneous rates, economic scale-residential prices and economic scale-residential rents are both dominated by negative allometric growth, the former's allometric growth coefficient is much higher than the latter. 3) Among the factors that affect the allometric growth of the three, technological development level, financial investment level, urban population scale, facility supply level, industrial development level and urban-rural income gap are the leading factors for the allometric growth between economic scale and housing market.

Key words： economic scale housing price housing rent allometric growth Yangtze River Delta region

收稿日期: 2021-04-16

PACS:

F299.23

基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目(41771171,42171200);江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目(KYCX20_1173,KYCX21_1291)

通讯作者: 杨山(1963—),男,江苏盐城人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为城乡发展与国土空间规划。E-mail:yangshan@njnu.edu.cn。 E-mail: yangshan@njnu.edu.cn

作者简介: 尹上岗(1993—),男,安徽太和人,博士生,主要研究方向为城市地理与区域发展。E-mail:yinshanggang@163.com。

引用本文:

尹上岗, 杨山, 朱奕衡. 经济发展与住宅市场异速增长时空格局及其形成机理——以长三角地区为例[J]. 人文地理, 2022, 37(3): 140-150. YIN Shang-gang, YANG Shan, ZHU Yi-heng. THE SPATIO-TEMPORAL PATTERN AND FORMATION MECHANISM OF THE ALLOMETRIC GROWTH OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND HOUSING MARKET: A CASE OF YANGTZE RIVER DELTA. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 37(3): 140-150.

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http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2022.03.015 或 http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/Y2022/V37/I3/140

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