南京市住宅价格时空分异格局及其影响因素分析&mdash;&mdash;基于地理加权回归模型的实证研究

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2018.03.009

PDF(8676 KB)

人文地理 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3) : 68-77. DOI: 10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2018.03.009

经济

南京市住宅价格时空分异格局及其影响因素分析——基于地理加权回归模型的实证研究

尹上岗¹, 宋伟轩², 马志飞¹, 李在军¹, 吴启焰^1,3

作者信息 +

SPATIAL DIFFERENTIATION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS ANALYSIS OF HOUSING PRICES IN NANJING: BASED ON GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION MODEL

YIN Shang-gang¹, SONG Wei-xuan², MA Zhi-fei¹, LI Zai-jun¹, WU Qi-yan^1,3

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

以2009—2017年南京市“一主三副”商品房社区为基本研究单元，运用GIS地统计分析中的普通Kriging插值法对“一主三副”住宅价格空间分布进行模拟和估计，并利用地理加权回归（GWR）模型探究社区属性、商业区位、交通区位、服务区位和景观区位等类型变量对住宅价格的影响规律。研究结果表明：①南京市房价总体上呈现主城向副城递减的中心外围模式，“一主三副”住宅价格空间结构呈现出同心圆和扇形融合的混合模型。②中心位势对主城住宅价格影响相对下降，对副城影响相对提升，交通位势表现出相反的趋势，住宅房龄、绿化环境对住宅价格的影响由主城向副城递减，山水景观的影响由长江沿岸向外围递减。③主副城住宅价格影响因素具有空间异质性，其中主城受距CBD距离、住宅建筑年代和绿化率的影响较大，而副城主要受距地铁站距离、距景观资源距离的影响。

Abstract

Based on 2009-2017 in Nanjing city "one main city and three subsidiary cities" commercial housing community as the research unit, using ordinary Kriging interpolation statistical analysis GIS in the simulation and estimation of the "one main city and three subsidiary cities" housing price spatial distribution, and the use of geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to explore the impact of community property, commercial location, traffic location, service location and landscape location to the housing price. The results of the study show that:1)The housing price of Nanjing city generally shows the central peripheral mode of the main city decrement to the vice city, and the residential price space structure of "one main city and three subsidiary cities" presents a mixed model of concentric circles and fan-shaped fusion. 2) Center of potential impact on the urban housing price relative decline, affect the relative increase of vice city, the transportation potential showed the opposite trend. 3)The main and deputy city house price influence factors of spatial heterogeneity, including central city by the distance from the CBD, residential building age and the influence of green area is larger.

导出引用

尹上岗, 宋伟轩, 马志飞, 李在军, 吴启焰. 南京市住宅价格时空分异格局及其影响因素分析——基于地理加权回归模型的实证研究[J]. 人文地理. 2018, 33(3): 68-77 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2018.03.009

YIN Shang-gang, SONG Wei-xuan, MA Zhi-fei, LI Zai-jun, WU Qi-yan. SPATIAL DIFFERENTIATION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS ANALYSIS OF HOUSING PRICES IN NANJING: BASED ON GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION MODEL[J]. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY. 2018, 33(3): 68-77 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2018.03.009

中图分类号： C912.81

参考文献

[1] 顾朝林,王法辉,刘贵利.北京城市社会区分析[J].地理学报,2003,58(6):917-926.[Gu Chaolin, Wang Fahui, Liu Guili. Study on urban social areas Beijing[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003,58(6):917-926.]

[2] Feng J, Zhou Y X, Logan J, et al. Restructuring of Beijing's social space[J]. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 2007,48(5):509-542.

[3] 王芳,高晓路,颜秉秋.基于住宅价格的北京城市空间结构研究[J]. 地理科学进展,2014,33(10):1322-1331.[Wang Fang, Gao Xiaolu, Yan Bingqiu. Research on urban spatial structure in Beijing based on housing prices[J]. Progress in Geography, 2014,33(10):1322-1331.]

[4] 李志刚,吴缚龙.转型期上海社会空间分异研究[J].地理学报,2006, 61(2):199-211.[Li Zhigang, Wu Fulong. Sociospatial differentiation in transitional Shanghai[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006,61(2):199-211.]

[5] 石忆邵,张蕊.大型公园绿地对住宅价格的时空影响效应——以上海市黄兴公园绿地为例[J].地理研究,2010,29(3):510-520.[Shi Yishao, Zhang Rui. Temporal-spatial impact effects of large-scale parks on residential prices:Exemplified by the Huangxing Park in Shanghai[J]. Geographical Research, 2010,29(3):510-520.]

[6] 汤庆园,徐伟,艾福利.基于地理加权回归的上海市房价空间分异及其影响因子研究[J].经济地理,2012,32(2):52-58.[Tang Qingyuan, Xu Wei, Ai Fuli. A GWR-based study on spatial pattern and structural determinants of Shanghai's housing price[J]. Economic Geography, 2012,32(2):52-58.]

[7] 闫小培,周春山,邓世文,等.广州市及周边地区商品房的开发与分布[J]. 地理学报,2001,56(5):570-580.[Yan Xiaopei, Zhou Chunshan, Deng Shiwen, et al. Development of commodity housing in Guangzhou and its surrounding areas[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2001,56(5):570-580.]

[8] 梅志雄,徐颂军,欧阳军,等.广州地铁三号线对周边住宅价格的时空影响效应[J].地理科学,2011,31(7):836-842.[Mei Zhixiong, Xu Songjun, OuyangJun, et al. Spatio-temporal impact effects of Guangzhou metro 3rd line housing prices[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2011,31(7):836-842.]

[9] 宋伟轩,毛宁,陈培阳,等.基于住宅价格视角的居住分异耦合机制与时空特征——以南京为例[J].地理学报,2017,72(4):589-602.[Song Weixuan, Mao Ning, Chen Peiyang, et al. Coupling mechanism and spatial-temporal pattern of residentialdifferentiation from the perspective of housing prices:A case study of Nanjing[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017,72(4):589-602.]

[10] Wu Q Y, Cheng J Q, Chen G, et al. Socio-spatial differentiation and residential segregation in the Chinese city based on the 2000 community-level census data:A case study of the inner city of Nanjing[J]. Cities, 2014,39:109-119.

[11] 刘洪彬,王秋兵.基于特征价格模型的城市住宅用地出让价格影响因素研究[J]. 经济地理,2011,31(6):1008-1013.[Liu Hongbin, Wang Qiubing. A study on the influence factors land granting price of the urban residential land based on hedonic price model[J]. Economic Geography, 2011,31(6):1008-1013.]

[12] 顾杰,贾生华.公共交通改善期望对住房价格及其价格空间结构的影响——基于杭州地铁规划的实证研究[J].经济地理,2008,28(6):1020-1024.[Gu Jie, Jia Shenghua. The effects of expected transport improvements on housing prices and price spatial distribution:Hangzhou:Based research evidence of planning the mass transit railway[J]. Economic Geography, 2008,28(6):1020-1024.]

[13] 温海珍,李旭宁,张凌.城市景观对住宅价格的影响——以杭州市为例[J].地理研究,2012,31(10):1806-1814.[Wen Haizhen, Li Xuning, Zhang Ling. Impacts of the urban landscape on the housing price:A case study in Hangzhou[J]. Geographical Research, 2012, 31(10):1806-1814.]

[14] 李雪铭,张馨,张春花,等.大连商品住宅价格空间分异规律研究[J]. 地域研究与开发,2004,23(6):35-39.[Li Xueming, Zhang Xin, Zhang Chunhua, et al. Spatial distribution characters of residence price in Danlian[J]. Areal Research and Development, 2004,23(6):35-39.]

[15] 梁云芳,高铁梅.中国房地产价格波动区域差异的实证分析[J].经济研究,2007(8):133-142.[Liang Yunfang, Gao Tiemei. Empirical analysis on real estate price fluctuation in different provinces of China[J]. Economic Research, 2007(8):133-142.]

[16] 王洋,王德利,王少剑.中国城市住宅价格的空间分异格局及影响因素[J]. 地理科学,2013,33(10):1157-1165.[Wang Yang, Wang Deli, Wang Shaojian. Spatial differentiation patterns and impact factors of housing prices of China's cities[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2013,33(10):1157-1165.]

[17] Wu Q Y, Zhang X L, Walay P. When Neil Smith met Pierre Bourdieu in Nanjing, China:Bringing cultural capital into rent gap theory[J]. Housing Studies, 2017,32(5):659-677.

[18] 王洋.住宅优势度的理论与评价方法[J].人文地理,2016,31(4):66-71.[Wang Yang. The theory and evaluation method of the housing dominance[J]. Human Geography, 2016,31(4):66-71.]

[19] Tse R Y C. Estimating neighborhood effects in house prices:Towards a new hedonic model approach[J]. Urban Studies, 2002,39(7):1165-1180.

[20] 张静,张丽芳,濮励杰,等.基于GWR模型的城市住宅地价的时空演变研究——以江苏省为例[J].地理科学,2012,32(7):828-834.[Zhang Jing, Zhang Lifang, Pu Lijie, et al. Research on spatio-temporal variation of urban residential land price based on GWR model:A case study of Jiangsu province[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012,32(7):828-834.]

[21] 余建辉,张文忠,董冠鹏.北京市居住用地特征价格的空间分异特征[J].地理研究,2013,32(6):1113-1120.[Yu Jianhui, Zhang Wenzhong, Dong Guangpeng. Spatial heterogeneity in the attributes prices of residential land in Beijing[J]. Geographical Research, 2013,32(6):1113-1120.]

[22] Mathur S. Impact of urban growth boundary on housing and land prices:Evidence from King county, Washington[J]. Housing Studies, 2014,29(1):128-148.

[23] Stevenson S. New empirical evidence on heteroscedasticity in hedonic housing mode[J]. Journal of Housing Economics, 2004,13(2):136-153.

[24] 朱振国,姚士谋,许刚.南京城市扩展与其空间增长管理的研究[J]. 人文地理,2003,18(5):11-16.[Zhu Zhenguo, Yao Shimou, Xu Gang. Urban expansion and its spatial growth management in Nanjing[J]. Human Geography, 2003,18(5):11-16.]

[25] 梅志雄,黎夏.基于ESDA和Kriging方法的东莞市住宅价格空间结构[J].经济地理,2008,28(5):862-866.[Mei Zhixiong, Li Xia. Spatial analysis of houses' price in Dongguan based on ESDA and Kriging techniques[J]. Economic Geography, 2008,28(5):862-866.]

[26] 孟斌,张景秋,王劲峰,等.空间分析方法在房地产市场研究中的应用——以北京市为例[J].地理研究,2005,24(6):956-964.[Meng Bin, Zhang Jingqiu, Wang Jinfeng, et al. Application of spatial analysis to the research of real estate:Taking Beijing as a case[J]. Geographical Research, 2005,24(6):956-964.]

[27] Kuntz M, Helbich M, Geostatistical mapping of real estate prices:An empirical comparisonof kriging and cokriging[J]. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 2014,28(9):1904-1921.

[28] Brunsdon C, Fotheringham A S, Charlton M. Geographically weighted regression:A method for exploring spatial nonstationarity[J]. Geographical Analysis, 1996,28(4):281-298.

[29] 吴启焰,任东明.改革开放以来我国城市地域结构演变与持续发展研究——以南京都市区为例[J].地理科学,1999,19(2):108-113.[Wu Qiyan, Ren Dongming. The transformation of metropolitan area structure and sustainable development since reform:A case of metropolitan Nanjing[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 1999,19(2):108-113.]

[30] Alonso W. Location and Land Use[M]. Cambridge:Harvard University Press, 1964:1-216.

[31] 于伟,饶烨,李雪,等.地产价格梯度研究进展[J].资源科学,2012,34(12):2265-2273.[Yu Wei, Rao Ye, Li Xue, et al. Application of spatial analysis to the research of real estate:Taking Beijing as a case[J]. Resources Science, 2012,34(12):2265-2273.]

[32] 吴启焰.大城市居住空间分异的理论与实证研究(第二版)[M].北京:科学出版社,2016:22-64.[Wu Qiyan. Study on the Residential Difference in Big Cities:Theory and Empirical Analysis(second edition)[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2016:22-64.]