基于Arcgis平台,以第六次人口普查数据为基础,以乡镇街道为分析单元,采用具有不同有效服务半径的改进的潜能模型对武汉市养老设施空间可达性进行测算。结果表明,改进的潜能模型能合理地评价武汉市养老设施空间可达性,有效判断养老设施稀缺程度;养老设施空间可达性从武汉市东南地区向四周逐渐递减;距市中心越远,乡镇街道养老设施空间可达性越低。文章直观揭示武汉市各乡镇街道养老设施空间可达性差异,有效判别武汉市各乡镇街道养老设施稀缺程度,为养老设施空间配置、优化布局提供科学依据。

It is a big challenge and great need for China to care and support the seniors with entering the aging society since 1999 and in an accelerated trend, the role of the senior nursing homes has been increasingly highlighted in the community as an important part of basic public service system while family care resources gradually diminished. It is significant to locate the senior nursing homes to achieve the maximization of social welfare spatially. The senior population will reach 190 million, and the number of beds in the senior nursing homes reached about 114, 000 beds by 2020 in Wuhan, which means about 70 thousand beds of the senior nursing homes will be expected. So it is necessary to do the spatial planning of the senior care resources with an efficient method for measuring accessibility. Employing the sixth census data based on the streets as spatial units, the paper selected the appropriate travel coefficient in the potential model in terms of sensitivity and combined with actual situation, and measured spatial accessibility to the senior nursing homes in Wuhan by way of GIS platform. The results shows that improving of potential model can present a more reasonable evaluation of the accessibility to the senior nursing homes in Wuhan so that the level of scarcity of the senior nursing homes could be judged efficiently. What is more, according to the results, the spatial accessibility to the senior nursing homes gradually decrease both towards to the surrounding areas from the eastsouth part of Wuhan and to the further areas with distance to the center of city. The paper provides the scientific foundation for allocating the senior nursing homes spatially in a more optimal way for Wuhan.