城市犯罪风险区位因子与风险地形分析——以武汉市主城区为例

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2018.04.006

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摘要从犯罪背景空间、场所空间、联接空间和聚集空间四个层次，构建城市犯罪风险区位因子体系。以武汉市主城区为研究区域，以立案判决的“两抢一盗”犯罪为数据源，综合运用空间句法、犯罪近重复分析和地理加权回归模型方法进行犯罪风险地形建模实证研究。结果表明，犯罪风险区位因子对犯罪空间分布的影响具有显著的空间异质性；依据多层次的犯罪风险区位因子体系及其对犯罪行为的影响机制，城市犯罪高风险区域可分为城市商业中心、火车站交通枢纽、城中村和城乡结合部等几大类型。基于犯罪地理学理论构建的犯罪风险区位因子体系模拟的犯罪风险地形对实际犯罪空间分布有良好的解释度，可为城市犯罪分布环境形成机制的研究提供相关借鉴。

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关键词 ：犯罪风险, 区位因子, 风险地形, &ldquo, 两抢一盗&rdquo, 武汉市

Abstract：Taking the central area of Wuhan as case study area, the case judgment of robbery, grabbing and theft as the data source, then eight crime risk factors including office buildings, automated teller machines, configuration of urban road network, commercial facilities, bus and subway stations, hospitals, internet bars, and crime near repeats were selected to be crime locational factors for the consideration of both previous studies and data availability. The main findings of this study included the following:1) Using kernel density tool to analyze the spatial distribution of robbery, snatch and theft crime, it showed that the spatial distribution of crime in study area has a polycentric model as a whole. 2) The output calculated by ordinary least squares (OLS) indicated that there is a high correlation between crime risk locational factors and crime spatial distribution. 3) Categorizing the high risk area type into three categories, including city business center, railway station hub, urban village and rural-urban fringe zone. 4) To modeling the crime risk terrain of the central area of Wuhan city, this study applied weighted sum tool, multiplied each crime risk factors by their given weight and summing them together.

Key words： crime risk locational factors risk terrain robbery,snatch and theft crime Wuhan

收稿日期: 2017-11-17

基金资助:

国家社会科学基金项目（17BJL052）

通讯作者: 郑文升(1982-),男,安徽六安人,教授,博士,主要研究方向为城镇化与城市发展。E-mail:zhengwensheng@mail.ccnu.edu.cn。 E-mail: zhengwensheng@mail.ccnu.edu.cn

作者简介: 卓蓉蓉(1990-),女,福建晋江人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为城乡生活空间演变。E-mail:zhuorongrong@mail.ccnu.edu.cn。

引用本文:

卓蓉蓉, 郑文升, 郑天铭. 城市犯罪风险区位因子与风险地形分析——以武汉市主城区为例[J]. 人文地理, 2018, 33(4): 33-42. ZHUO Rong-rong, ZHENG Wen-sheng, ZHENG Tian-ming. ANALYZING URBAN CRIME LOCATIONAL FACTORS AND MODELING CRIME RISK TERRAIN USING GIS: A CASE STUDY OF THE CENTRAL URBAN AREA OF WUHAN. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 33(4): 33-42.

链接本文:

http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2018.04.006 或 http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/Y2018/V33/I4/33

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[22]	Caplan J M, Kennedy L W, Miller J. Risk terrain modeling:Brokering criminological theory and GIS methods for crime forecasting[J]. Justice Quarterly, 2011,28(2):360-381.
[25]	程林,王法辉,修春亮.城市银行网点及其与人口-经济活动关系的空间分析——以长春市中心城区为例[J].人文地理,2015,30(4):72-78.[Cheng Lin, Wang Fahui, Xiu Chunliang. Spatial analysis of bank branches and its relationship to popu-economic activities:A case study in Changchun central urban area[J]. Human Geography, 2015,30(4):72-78.]
[14]	Eck J E, Clarke R V, Guerette R T, et al. Risky facilities:Crime concentration in homogeneous sets of establishments and facilities[J]. Civil Aviation Economics & Technology, 2007,21(70):225-264.
[9]	Johnson S D, Bowers K J. Permeability and burglary risk:Are culdesacs safer?[J]. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2010,26(1):89-111.
[23]	Kennedy L W, Caplan J M, Piza E. Risk clusters, hotspots, and spatial intelligence:Risk terrain modeling as an algorithm for police resource allocation strategies[J]. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2011,27(3):339-362.
[24]	张景秋,陈叶龙,孙颖.基于租金的北京城市办公活动经济空间结构解析[J].地理科学,2010,30(6):833-838.[Zhang Jingqiu, Chen Yelong, Sun Ying. Spatial analysis on urban internal economic spatial structure based on rent of office buildings in Beijing city[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2010,30(6):833-838.]
[26]	Bernasco W, Block R. Robberies in Chicago:A block-level analysis of the influence of crime generators, crime attractors, and offender anchor points[J]. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 2011,48(1):33-57.
[25]	程林,王法辉,修春亮.城市银行网点及其与人口-经济活动关系的空间分析——以长春市中心城区为例[J].人文地理,2015,30(4):72-78.[Cheng Lin, Wang Fahui, Xiu Chunliang. Spatial analysis of bank branches and its relationship to popu-economic activities:A case study in Changchun central urban area[J]. Human Geography, 2015,30(4):72-78.]
[27]	李希慧,廖梅.当代西方理性选择犯罪学思想介评[J].浙江警察学院学报,2004(4):42-45.[Li Xihui, Liao Mei. Review of contemporary western rational choice theory in criminology[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Police College, 2004(4):42-45.]
[28]	希利尔.空间是机器——建筑组构理论(原著第三版)[M].杨滔,张佶,王晓京,译.北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2008:109-137.[Hillier B. Space is the Machine:A Configurational Theory of Architecture[M]. Yang Tao, Zhang Ji, Wang Xiaojing, trans. Beijing:China Architecture & Building Press, 2008:109-137.]
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[15]	Groff E. Exploring ‘near’:Characterizing the spatial extent of drinking place influence on crime[J]. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Criminology, 2011,44(2):156-179.
[30]	郑文升,卓蓉蓉,罗静,等.基于空间句法的武汉城区"两抢一盗" 犯罪分布环境[J].地理学报,2016,71(10):1710-1720.[Zheng Wensheng, Zhuo Rongrong, Luo Jing, et al. The distribution environment of robbery, snatch and theft crime based on space syntax:A case study of the central area of Wuhan[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016,71(10):1710-1720.]
[10]	Browning C R, Jackson A L. The social ecology of public space:Active streets and violent crime in urban neighborhoods[J]. Criminology, 2013,51(4):1009-1043.
[31]	茹斯·康罗伊·戴尔顿,窦强.空间句法与空间认知[J].世界建筑, 2005(11):41-45.[Dalton R C, Dou Qiang. Space syntax and spatial cognition[J]. World Architecture, 2005(11):41-45.]
[26]	Bernasco W, Block R. Robberies in Chicago:A block-level analysis of the influence of crime generators, crime attractors, and offender anchor points[J]. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 2011,48(1):33-57.
[27]	李希慧,廖梅.当代西方理性选择犯罪学思想介评[J].浙江警察学院学报,2004(4):42-45.[Li Xihui, Liao Mei. Review of contemporary western rational choice theory in criminology[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Police College, 2004(4):42-45.]
[28]	希利尔.空间是机器——建筑组构理论(原著第三版)[M].杨滔,张佶,王晓京,译.北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2008:109-137.[Hillier B. Space is the Machine:A Configurational Theory of Architecture[M]. Yang Tao, Zhang Ji, Wang Xiaojing, trans. Beijing:China Architecture & Building Press, 2008:109-137.]
[29]	王发曾.城市犯罪空间盲区的综合治理研究[J].地理研究,2010,29(1):57-67.[Wang Fazeng. Study on the comprehensive treatment of spatial blind areas in urban crime[J]. Geographical Research, 2010, 29(1):57-67.]
[30]	郑文升,卓蓉蓉,罗静,等.基于空间句法的武汉城区"两抢一盗" 犯罪分布环境[J].地理学报,2016,71(10):1710-1720.[Zheng Wensheng, Zhuo Rongrong, Luo Jing, et al. The distribution environment of robbery, snatch and theft crime based on space syntax:A case study of the central area of Wuhan[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016,71(10):1710-1720.]
[16]	Bowers K. Risky facilities:Crime radiators or crime absorbers? A comparison of internal and external levels of theft[J]. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2014,30(3):389-414.
[11]	Jun H, Hur M. The relationship between walkability and neighborhood social environment:The importance of physical and perceived walkability[J]. Applied Geography, 2015,62:115-124.
[31]	茹斯·康罗伊·戴尔顿,窦强.空间句法与空间认知[J].世界建筑, 2005(11):41-45.[Dalton R C, Dou Qiang. Space syntax and spatial cognition[J]. World Architecture, 2005(11):41-45.]
[32]	Johnson D. The space/time behaviour of dwelling burglars:Finding near repeat patterns in serial offender data[J]. Applied Geography, 2013,41:139-146.
[12]	Hillier B. The Story of the Crime:Functional, Temporal and Spatial Tendencies in Street Robbery[C]. Istanbul:Proceedings of the 6th International Space Syntax Symposium, 2007.
[17]	Groff E, McCord E S. The role of neighborhood parks as crime generators[J]. Security Journal, 2012,25(1):1-24.
[32]	Johnson D. The space/time behaviour of dwelling burglars:Finding near repeat patterns in serial offender data[J]. Applied Geography, 2013,41:139-146.
[33]	Ratcliffe J H, Rengert G F. Near-repeat patterns in Philadelphia shootings[J]. Security Journal, 2008,21(1/2):58-76.
[13]	Wu L, Liu X, Ye X, et al. Permeability, space syntax, and the patterning of residential burglaries in urban China[J]. Applied Geography, 2015,60:261-265.
[18]	Smith W R, Frazee S G, Davison E L. Furthering the integration of routine activity theory and social disorganization theories:Small units of analysis and the study of street robbery as a diffusion process[J]. Criminology, 2000,38(2):489-524.
[33]	Ratcliffe J H, Rengert G F. Near-repeat patterns in Philadelphia shootings[J]. Security Journal, 2008,21(1/2):58-76.
[34]	Ratcliffe J H. Near Repeat Calculator:Version 1.3[Z]. Philadelphia, PA and Washington, D C:Temple University and National Institute of Justice, 2009.
[35]	徐冲,柳林,周素红.DP半岛街头抢劫案件的临近重复发生模式[J]. 地理研究,2015,34(2):384-394.[Xu Chong, Liu Lin, Zhou Suhong. Patterns of near-repeat street robbery in DP peninsula[J]. Geographical Research, 2015,34(2):384-394.]
[14]	Eck J E, Clarke R V, Guerette R T, et al. Risky facilities:Crime concentration in homogeneous sets of establishments and facilities[J]. Civil Aviation Economics & Technology, 2007,21(70):225-264.
[19]	Phipps A G. Crime and disorder, and house sales and prices around the casino sites in Windsor, Ontario, Canada[J]. Canadian Geographer, 2004,48(4):403-432.
[34]	Ratcliffe J H. Near Repeat Calculator:Version 1.3[Z]. Philadelphia, PA and Washington, D C:Temple University and National Institute of Justice, 2009.
[35]	徐冲,柳林,周素红.DP半岛街头抢劫案件的临近重复发生模式[J]. 地理研究,2015,34(2):384-394.[Xu Chong, Liu Lin, Zhou Suhong. Patterns of near-repeat street robbery in DP peninsula[J]. Geographical Research, 2015,34(2):384-394.]
[15]	Groff E. Exploring ‘near’:Characterizing the spatial extent of drinking place influence on crime[J]. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Criminology, 2011,44(2):156-179.
[20]	Grubesic T H, Pridemore W A. Alcohol outlets and clusters of violence[J]. International Journal of Health Geographics, 2011,10(10):1157-1178.
[16]	Bowers K. Risky facilities:Crime radiators or crime absorbers? A comparison of internal and external levels of theft[J]. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2014,30(3):389-414.
[21]	McCord E S, Ratcliffe J H. Intensity value analysis and the criminogenic effects of land use features on local crime patterns[J]. Crime Patterns and Analysis, 2009,2(1):17-30.
[17]	Groff E, McCord E S. The role of neighborhood parks as crime generators[J]. Security Journal, 2012,25(1):1-24.
[22]	Caplan J M, Kennedy L W, Miller J. Risk terrain modeling:Brokering criminological theory and GIS methods for crime forecasting[J]. Justice Quarterly, 2011,28(2):360-381.
[18]	Smith W R, Frazee S G, Davison E L. Furthering the integration of routine activity theory and social disorganization theories:Small units of analysis and the study of street robbery as a diffusion process[J]. Criminology, 2000,38(2):489-524.
[23]	Kennedy L W, Caplan J M, Piza E. Risk clusters, hotspots, and spatial intelligence:Risk terrain modeling as an algorithm for police resource allocation strategies[J]. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2011,27(3):339-362.
[24]	张景秋,陈叶龙,孙颖.基于租金的北京城市办公活动经济空间结构解析[J].地理科学,2010,30(6):833-838.[Zhang Jingqiu, Chen Yelong, Sun Ying. Spatial analysis on urban internal economic spatial structure based on rent of office buildings in Beijing city[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2010,30(6):833-838.]
[25]	程林,王法辉,修春亮.城市银行网点及其与人口-经济活动关系的空间分析——以长春市中心城区为例[J].人文地理,2015,30(4):72-78.[Cheng Lin, Wang Fahui, Xiu Chunliang. Spatial analysis of bank branches and its relationship to popu-economic activities:A case study in Changchun central urban area[J]. Human Geography, 2015,30(4):72-78.]
[19]	Phipps A G. Crime and disorder, and house sales and prices around the casino sites in Windsor, Ontario, Canada[J]. Canadian Geographer, 2004,48(4):403-432.
[26]	Bernasco W, Block R. Robberies in Chicago:A block-level analysis of the influence of crime generators, crime attractors, and offender anchor points[J]. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 2011,48(1):33-57.
[27]	李希慧,廖梅.当代西方理性选择犯罪学思想介评[J].浙江警察学院学报,2004(4):42-45.[Li Xihui, Liao Mei. Review of contemporary western rational choice theory in criminology[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Police College, 2004(4):42-45.]
[28]	希利尔.空间是机器——建筑组构理论(原著第三版)[M].杨滔,张佶,王晓京,译.北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2008:109-137.[Hillier B. Space is the Machine:A Configurational Theory of Architecture[M]. Yang Tao, Zhang Ji, Wang Xiaojing, trans. Beijing:China Architecture & Building Press, 2008:109-137.]
[29]	王发曾.城市犯罪空间盲区的综合治理研究[J].地理研究,2010,29(1):57-67.[Wang Fazeng. Study on the comprehensive treatment of spatial blind areas in urban crime[J]. Geographical Research, 2010, 29(1):57-67.]
[30]	郑文升,卓蓉蓉,罗静,等.基于空间句法的武汉城区"两抢一盗" 犯罪分布环境[J].地理学报,2016,71(10):1710-1720.[Zheng Wensheng, Zhuo Rongrong, Luo Jing, et al. The distribution environment of robbery, snatch and theft crime based on space syntax:A case study of the central area of Wuhan[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016,71(10):1710-1720.]
[31]	茹斯·康罗伊·戴尔顿,窦强.空间句法与空间认知[J].世界建筑, 2005(11):41-45.[Dalton R C, Dou Qiang. Space syntax and spatial cognition[J]. World Architecture, 2005(11):41-45.]
[20]	Grubesic T H, Pridemore W A. Alcohol outlets and clusters of violence[J]. International Journal of Health Geographics, 2011,10(10):1157-1178.
[32]	Johnson D. The space/time behaviour of dwelling burglars:Finding near repeat patterns in serial offender data[J]. Applied Geography, 2013,41:139-146.
[21]	McCord E S, Ratcliffe J H. Intensity value analysis and the criminogenic effects of land use features on local crime patterns[J]. Crime Patterns and Analysis, 2009,2(1):17-30.
[33]	Ratcliffe J H, Rengert G F. Near-repeat patterns in Philadelphia shootings[J]. Security Journal, 2008,21(1/2):58-76.
[22]	Caplan J M, Kennedy L W, Miller J. Risk terrain modeling:Brokering criminological theory and GIS methods for crime forecasting[J]. Justice Quarterly, 2011,28(2):360-381.
[34]	Ratcliffe J H. Near Repeat Calculator:Version 1.3[Z]. Philadelphia, PA and Washington, D C:Temple University and National Institute of Justice, 2009.
[35]	徐冲,柳林,周素红.DP半岛街头抢劫案件的临近重复发生模式[J]. 地理研究,2015,34(2):384-394.[Xu Chong, Liu Lin, Zhou Suhong. Patterns of near-repeat street robbery in DP peninsula[J]. Geographical Research, 2015,34(2):384-394.]
[23]	Kennedy L W, Caplan J M, Piza E. Risk clusters, hotspots, and spatial intelligence:Risk terrain modeling as an algorithm for police resource allocation strategies[J]. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2011,27(3):339-362.
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