我国乡村转型发展时空分异格局与影响机制分析

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2021.03.015

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摘要乡村转型发展是乡村振兴的重要内容，揭示我国乡村转型发展时空格局及驱动力对推进乡村振兴战略实施具有现实意义。以我国省域单元作为研究对象，基于对乡村转型发展内涵特征解读，从人口—土地—产业—社会维度上构建乡村转型发展评价体系，综合运用投影寻踪模型、ESDA模型、时空跃迁分析及GWR模型等方法研究我国乡村转型发展时空格局及其驱动因素异质性。研究表明：①1998年以来我国乡村转型发展呈现持续上升的发展态势，乡村转型发展水平上东部地带>中部地带>西部地带，东部沿海、北部沿海、南部沿海及长江中游等地域乡村转型发展水平相对较高；②研究期间我国乡村转型发展全局上表现出俱乐部趋同空间分布格局，乡村转型发展局部空间LISA模式稳定，表现为一定的路径依赖和空间锁定特征；③资源禀赋、城市化、工业化、农业现代化及交通条件等因素综合影响我国乡村转型发展时空分异与演化，其中城市化、工业化因素对沿海地区乡村转型发展的驱动作用最为强烈，资源禀赋、农业现代化对于中部、华北及东北地区乡村转型发展具有局部优势效应，而交通条件对西南、西北地区等乡村转型发展表现出较弱的驱动影响。

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关键词 ：乡村转型发展, 时空跃迁, ESDA, 影响因素, 异质性

Abstract：Rural transformation development is an important part of rural revitalization; it is of practical significance to reveal the spatial-temporal pattern of rural transformation and driving forces for the implementation of rural revitalization strategy. The projection pursuit model, ESDA model, spatial-temporal transition analysis, GWR model and other methods were comprehensively used to study the spatial-temporal pattern and the spatial heterogeneity of driving factors of rural transformation development. The results showed that:1) Rural transformation development has been on the rise, the eastern belt>central belt>western belt, the eastern coastal, northern coastal, southern coastal and the middle reaches of the Yangtze river of rural transformation development level was relatively high. 2) Rural transformation development showed the overall spatial distribution pattern of club convergence, and the local spatial LISA model was stable, which showed certain characteristics of path dependence and spatial locking. 3) Resource endowment, urbanization, industrialization, agricultural modernization and traffic conditions affect spatial-temporal differentiation and evolution of rural transformation development.

Key words： rural transformation development spatial-temporal transitions ESDA driving force heterogeneity

收稿日期: 2020-08-07

PACS:

K901

基金资助:国家教育部人文社科基金项目（20YJCZH230）；江苏省软科学研究基金项目（SBR2020000506）；扬州大学“青蓝工程”优秀青年骨干教师资助项目

作者简介: 张荣天(1987-),男,江苏溧水人,博士后,助理研究员,硕士生导师,主要研究方向为城乡发展与区域规划。E-mail:nnuzrr@163.com。

引用本文:

张荣天, 张小林, 陆建飞, 李传武. 我国乡村转型发展时空分异格局与影响机制分析[J]. 人文地理, 2021, 36(3): 138-147. ZHANG Rong-tian, ZhANG Xiao-lin, LU Jian-fei, LI Chuan-wu. RURAL TRANSFORMATION DEVELOPMENT PATTERN AND MECHANISMIN CHINA. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 36(3): 138-147.

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http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2021.03.015 或 http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/Y2021/V36/I3/138

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