旅游城镇化对共同富裕影响的仿真研究——以湖南省武陵山片区为例

唐健雄; 陕颖颖

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2024.02.017

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人文地理 ›› 2024, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (2) : 164-172. DOI: 10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2024.02.017

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旅游城镇化对共同富裕影响的仿真研究——以湖南省武陵山片区为例

唐健雄, 陕颖颖

作者信息 +

A SIMULATION STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF TOURISM URBANIZATION ON COMMON WEALTH: A CASE STUDY OF WULING MOUNTAIN AREA, HUNAN PROVINCE

TANG Jian-xiong, SHAN Ying-ying

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文章历史 +

摘要

在中国式现代化的发展背景下，本文基于2011—2021年湖南省武陵山片区34个县域数据，从产业经济、社会文化、生态环境三个子系统来构建旅游城镇化驱动区域共同富裕的系统动力学模型，设置现状延续型、产业经济发展型、社会文化发展型、生态环境保护型、综合发展型五种不同发展情景，评估人均GDP、每万人普通学校在校人数、旅游目的地承载力、城乡人均收入比对共同富裕的影响效应，预测2022—2035年共同富裕指数的发展情况。结果表明:①历史数据与模拟数据绝对值误差不超过10%，表明该模型具有有效性；②在五种不同的发展模式下，各系统的代表性指标均有不同程度的提升；③综合发展情景下共同富裕指数的仿真结果最优，在2035年能够实现该片区共同富裕的发展目标。

Abstract

High-quality development is the primary task of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way, and achieving common prosperity in an all-round way is the vision of action to promote high-quality development. In order to investigate the impact of tourism urbanization on regional common prosperity, based on the data of 34 counties in Wulingshan Area of Hunan Province from 2011 to 2021, combined with the system dynamic model, this paper constructs a prediction model of tourism urbanization driving regional common prosperity, and simulates and predicts the impact of tourism urbanization on regional common prosperity in Wulingshan Area of Hunan Province from 2022 to 2035 under five different scenarios. The research results show that:1) The historical test proves that the model simulation effect is good and operable; 2) The system dynamics model was used to simulate the representative indicators of the industrial economy subsystem, social development subsystem and environmental protection subsystem, and the results showed that the indicators of the impact of tourism urbanization on the development of regional common prosperity were improved to varying degrees. 3) In the scenario setting, the impact of different influencing factors on regional common prosperity is different, among which the simulation results of scenario 5 collaborative development model are the best, which takes into account the coordinated development of industrial economy, social culture and environmental protection.

导出引用

唐健雄, 陕颖颖. 旅游城镇化对共同富裕影响的仿真研究——以湖南省武陵山片区为例[J]. 人文地理. 2024, 39(2): 164-172 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2024.02.017

TANG Jian-xiong, SHAN Ying-ying. A SIMULATION STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF TOURISM URBANIZATION ON COMMON WEALTH: A CASE STUDY OF WULING MOUNTAIN AREA, HUNAN PROVINCE[J]. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY. 2024, 39(2): 164-172 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2024.02.017

中图分类号： F590.3

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