本文在旅游可持续发展的前提下,运用环境科学的理论和方法对旅游区的旅游环境容量的量测问题做了理论上的探讨,并在对其进行量化确定上做了初步的研究。认为在对其量化过程中要进行环境背景值、基线值的现状评价分析,各环境因子之间的联系与制约关系分析,累积效应分析,风险评价分析和旅游资源利用的帕累托最适度分析,通过各阶段对旅游环境容量的校正,最后认为旅游规划的环境容量应是帕累托最适环境容量,这才是保证旅游区最佳持续发展的依据,其表示为C_g=((1-L)R_kA_u)/(RA)???20020608???C_iQ_i。

Applied to the theories and methods of environment sciences, this paper analyses the measurable problems of tourist carrying capacity, and takes some preliminary study on their measures. The authors believe that the measures on tourist carrying capacity should include the following steps. The first, the analysis of tourist environmental background values and base-line values in the current situations. We apply the model of the indexof environmental information flow to attain the total environmental index, and adjust the calculation on A(the spatial scale of tourist resources) on the base of the environmental index, and express the capacity of tourist resources as:C_s=(T)/(t)·(A)/(A_k)·(I_k)/(I);add the coefficient of density sense to measure the capacity of tourist sense, show it as:C_r=K·(T)/(t)·(A)/(A_k)·(I_k)/(I)(K is the coefficient of the density sense);correct the ecological capacity of tourism under the background of ecological capacity indexIe, show it as:F_e=(I_ke)/(I_e)·F(I_ke is a national standard). The second step, we analyze the impact on tourist environment of tourist activities, including the cumulative effects analysis and the environmental risks analysis. We use interacted matrix law with Delphi technique to do the cumulative effect analysis, draw out L for the cumulative percentage of a tourist zone, and show tourist carrying capacity as:C·(1-L), then calculate the value of all kinds of tourist environmental risks through applying the Fault Tree Analysis or ETA, correct tourist carrying capacity as:(C·R_k)/(R), R(x)=∫₀^∝ P(x)*D(x)(R_k is standards for risks, namely the acceptable risks standards of tourist zone, P is the probability function of the risk, D is the consequence function of the risk). Lastly, we do the analysis of the Pareto's most appropriate use of tourist resources by applying the Pareto's most appropriate method with the most heavy social welfare functions, to calculate the percentages of tourist resources which can be utilized at this stage, and we can draw out that is the basis which guarantees the sustainable development in this tourist zone, showing it as C_g=((1-L) R_kA_u)/(RA)???20020608???C_iQ_i. The author thinks that we should do mo re research in the relevant fields and touch on the new challenging opportunities.