区域粮食安全问题是当前政府与学者关注的热点问题之一。长江三角洲地区高速的工业化、城镇化过程及快速增长的经济使维系粮食生产的耕地数量及质量发生剧烈变化,区域的粮食供需矛盾日益突出。文章对该区粮食生产与土地变化的相关性进行了分析,并阐述了近50年的粮食波动系数,通过预测分析长江三角洲地区粮食产量与消费状况,进一步对该区域粮食安全性进行度量研究。研究结果表明长江三角洲地区粮食缺口将逐年变大,粮食安全状况越来越差,有效的调控措施是实现区域粮食安全的保证。

The problem of Food Security is the focus issue that is discussed by government and scholars. With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization in resent years, the cultivated land has decreased sharply and its soil is degenerating in Yangtze River delta, which is one of the developed areas in china. In the resent year, with the agriculture production structure adjusting and cultivated land area decreasing, it is more and more imbalance between yield and consumption of grain in Yangtze River delta. Base on the statistics and the latest land inventory of the past several years, firstly, the relationship between cultivated land change and food security is identified, the result show there are obvious relativity between cultivated land change and grain yield change, and they is concurrent change. Secondly, the fluctuant coefficient of grain yield is analy zed in Yangtze River delta. The result show there are two wave crest of grain yield fluctuate coefficient in Yangtze River delta in near 50. Thirdly, This paper forecasts the yield and consumption of grain in Yangtze River delta in the future, and tries to discuss the food security in Yangtze River delta from two indexes of food supply and demand by which this paper analyzes the status of food security in Yangtze River delta in future. Finally, this paper set up model to analyze food security in different period base on food supply and demand. The result indicated that gap of grain yield and consumption of grain is larger and larger. The main reason is cultivated land decrease inevitably that restrict food supplies deeply. And the grain yield will reduce gradually. This paper forecast that the grain yield is 1683.82×10⁴t in 2025. the food gap is 639.66×10⁴t in 2000, however, the food gap is 1452.53×10⁴t in 2025. The state of food security worsens. The food security coefficient is only 0.5369 in 2025. This paper also put forward some suggest on food security in Yangtze River delta that is Stability of the cultivated land quality and to improve the output level of the cultivated land is the key approaches to keep the food security.