SIMULATING THE FORMATION OF URBAN SETTLEMENT SYSTEMS WITH THE CONSIDERATION OF RISK ATTITUDES
HAN Hao-ying1, SHU Xian-fan2, LAI Shih-Kung3
1. College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China;
2. School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China;
3. College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
Abstract：The power law is a phenomenon that can be widely observed in both natural and social environments, and rank-size rule of urban scale is an instance for the power law in urban science. This paper tries to integrate the increasing returns of land development and the risk perception of land developers into an urban growth model, which simulates the macroevolution of urban settlement systems based on microcosmic growth of single cities, and further reveal how risk attitudes of land developers affect the pattern, especially the size distribution of urban settlement systems. With the attraction effect controlled, the relationship between certain combination of risk attitudes and the size distribution of the generated urban settlement system can be explored. There are totally 76 treatments compared in our simulating experiment, consisting of 56 single-attitude treatments and 20 multi-attitudes treatments. The results suggest that:1) the power law is pervasive in the size distributions of urban settlement systems regardless of land developers' various risk attitudes, indicating the robustness of this law, 2) the size distributions of urban settlement systems with different risk attitudes differ drastically from one another with regard to the degree of uniformity, probably corresponding to urban settlement systems with different endowment or at different stages in the real world, and 3) a phenomenon of "convergence" can be widely observed in multi-attitudes scenarios, implying cities with medium and small size may play an important role in the constancy of rank size distribution of urban settlement systems in real world.
韩昊英, 舒贤帆, 赖世刚. 风险视角下的城市聚落形成模拟[J]. 人文地理, 2017, 32(4): 60-67,154.
HAN Hao-ying, SHU Xian-fan, LAI Shih-Kung. SIMULATING THE FORMATION OF URBAN SETTLEMENT SYSTEMS WITH THE CONSIDERATION OF RISK ATTITUDES. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 32(4): 60-67,154.
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