流动人口居留稳定性的群体分异与空间格局

刘涛; 彭荣熙; 曹广忠

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2021.03.005

PDF(5336 KB)

人文地理 ›› 2021, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (3) : 37-46. DOI: 10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2021.03.005

社会

流动人口居留稳定性的群体分异与空间格局

刘涛^1,2, 彭荣熙^1,2, 曹广忠^1,2

作者信息 +

DURATION OF RESIDENCE AT DESTINATION AMONG CHINA'S INTERNAL MIGRANTS: GROUP DIFFERENCES AND SPATIAL VARIATIONS

LIU Tao^1,2, PENG Rong-xi^1,2, CAO Guang-zhong^1,2

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

利用2015年全国1%人口抽样调查数据，本文分析了流动人口居留稳定性的总体特征、群体分异和空间差异性，并对流动人口居留稳定性的影响因素进行了探讨。结果表明：①我国跨市流动人口在当前城市的平均居住时间约为5年，新生代流动人口的居留稳定性与老一代并没有显著差异，从事工业行业的流动人口居留稳定性明显低于各类服务业从业者；②省内流动人口的居留稳定性低于省际流动人口，且有更大的可能离开当前城市，转向省际流动；③城市流动人口的规模和居留稳定性在空间格局和影响因素方面均存在明显差异，虽然收入水平和就业机会依然是吸引流动人口的主要因素，但公共服务、住房市场和环境等城市宜居性因素对提高流动人口的居留稳定性更为重要。

Abstract

With the emergence of new mobility patterns such as city-to-city migration, secondary migration, and return migration, the spatial patterns of population mobility are increasingly diversified, which has become a new challenge to the stability of the migrant population's residence in the destination cities. In this context, this article analyses the duration of residence at destination cities among Chinese migrants, with a special attention on its group differences and spatial variations based on the individual data from the 2015 China 1% National Population Survey and supplemented by the Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey data. Results show that the average length for a migrant to stay in his or her destination is approximately five years, and it is very likely for this person to migrate to another city in the third and fourth year of his or her stay in that city. Migrants employed in manufacturing sectors and those migrating for education and training show a shorter length of stay at destinations. The spatial patterns of urban floating population and their duration of residence are distinctively different. Quantitative analysis shows that despite the continuous roles played by high income and sufficient job opportunities of cities in attracting migrants, urban livability and amenity are important for stable residence of migrants, which indicates that urban governments should try to improve public services, reduce living cost, and improve environmental quality in order to realize the transformation from "attracting people" to "retaining people".

导出引用

刘涛, 彭荣熙, 曹广忠. 流动人口居留稳定性的群体分异与空间格局[J]. 人文地理. 2021, 36(3): 37-46 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2021.03.005

LIU Tao, PENG Rong-xi, CAO Guang-zhong. DURATION OF RESIDENCE AT DESTINATION AMONG CHINA'S INTERNAL MIGRANTS: GROUP DIFFERENCES AND SPATIAL VARIATIONS[J]. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY. 2021, 36(3): 37-46 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2021.03.005

中图分类号： K901.3

参考文献

[1] Day L H, Ma X. Migration and Urbanization in China[M]. New York/London:M.E. Sharpe, 1994:25-28.
[2] Zhang L. Conceptualizing China's urbanization under reforms[J]. Habitat International, 2008,32(4):452-470.
[3] 蔡昉.城市化与农民工的贡献——后危机时期中国经济增长潜力的思考[J].中国人口科学,2010(1):2-10.[Cai Fang. How migrant workers can further contribute to the urbanization:Potentials of China's growth in post-crisis era[J]. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2010(1):2-10.]
[4] 段成荣,刘涛,吕利丹.当前我国人口流动形势及其影响研究[J].山东社会科学,2017(9):63-69.[Duan Chengrong, Liu Tao, Lv Lidan. Research on the current situation and influences of migration in China[J]. Shandong Social Sciences, 2017(9):63-69.]
[5] Fan C C, Sun M, Zheng S. Migration and split households:A comparison of sole, couple, and family migrants in Beijing, China[J]. Environment and Planning A, 2011,43(9):2164-2185.
[6] 杨菊华.中国流动人口的社会融入研究[J].中国社会科学,2015(2):61-79.[Yang Juhua. Research on the assimilation of the floating population in China[J]. Social Sciences in China, 2015(2):61-79.]
[7] Zhu Y, Chen W. The settlement intention of China's floating population in the cities:Recent changes and multifaceted individual-level determinants[J]. Population, Space and Place, 2010,16(4):253-267.
[8] 刘涛,陈思创,曹广忠.流动人口的居留和落户意愿及其影响因素[J].中国人口科学,2019(3):80-91.[Liu Tao, Chen Sichuang, Cao Guangzhong. Comparing migrants' intentions of settlement and hukou transfer in the Pearl River Delta[J]. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2019(3):80-91.]
[9] 刘涛,齐元静,曹广忠.中国流动人口空间格局的演变特征、形成机制及城镇化效应——基于2000和2010年人口普查分县数据的分析[J].地理学报,2015,70(4):568-582.[Liu Tao, Qi Yuanjing, Cao Guangzhong. China's floating population in the 21st century:Uneven landscape, influencing factors, and effects on urbanization[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015,70(4):568-582.]
[10] 杨云彦,石智雷.中国农村地区的家庭禀赋与外出务工劳动力回流[J].人口研究,2012,36(4):3-17.[Yang Yunyan, Shi Zhilei. Family endowment and return migration in rural China[J]. Population Research, 2012,36(4):3-17.]
[11] 刘涛,卓云霞,王洁晶.邻近性对人口再流动目的地选择的影响——分析框架与实证研究[J].地理学报,2020,75(12):2716-2729.[Liu Tao, ZhuoYunxia, Wang Jiejing. How multi-proximity affects destination choice in onward migration:A nested logit model[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020,75(12):2716-2729.]
[12] 牛建林.城市"用工荒"背景下流动人口的返乡决策与人力资本的关系研究[J].人口研究,2015,39(2):17-31.[Niu Jianlin. Human capital and returning decision of migrant workers in the era of emerging urban labor shortage[J]. Population Research, 2015,39(2):17-31.]
[13] 马小红,段成荣,郭静.四类流动人口的比较研究[J].中国人口科学, 2014(5):36-46.[Ma Xiaohong, Duan Chengrong, Guo Jing. A comparative study on four types of floating population[J]. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2014(5):36-46.]
[14] 段成荣,吕利丹,邹湘江.当前我国流动人口面临的主要问题和对策——基于2010年第六次全国人口普查数据的分析[J].人口研究,2013,37(2):17-24.[Duan Chengrong, Lv Lidan, Zou Xiangjiang. Major challenges for China's floating population and policy suggestions:An analysis of the 2010 population census data[J]. Population Research, 2013,37(2):17-24.]
[15] 马瑞,徐志刚,仇焕广,等.农村进城就业人员的职业流动、城市变换和家属随同状况及影响因素分析[J].中国农村观察,2011(1):2-9,19.[Ma Rui, Xu Zhigang, Qiu Huanguang, et al. Factors influencing rural-urban migrants' occupation choice, settlement and family accompanying[J]. China Rural Survey, 2011(1):2-9,19.]
[16] 符平,唐有财.倒"U"型轨迹与新生代农民工的社会流动——新生代农民工的流动史研究[J].浙江社会科学,2009(12):41-47.[Fu Ping, Tang Youcai. Inverted U-shaped trajectory and the social mobility of new generation peasant-workers[J]. Zhejiang Social Sciences, 2009(12):41-47.]
[17] 常进雄,赵海涛.农民工二次跨区流动的特征分析[J].中国人口科学,2015(2):84-92.[Chang Jinxiong, Zhao Haitao. Feature analysis of the second inter-regional migration of migrant labour[J]. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2015(2):84-92.]
[18] 田明.进城农民工的高流动性及其解释[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2013,28(5):69-80.[Tian Ming. An investigation on job mobility of China's migrant workers[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2013,28(5):69-80.]
[19] 杜鹏,张航空.中国流动人口梯次流动的实证研究[J].人口学刊, 2011(4):14-20.[Du Peng, Zhang Hangkong. An empirical study on the laddering migration of China's floating population[J]. Population Journal, 2011(4):14-20.]
[20] 张航空.梯次流动对流动人口居留意愿的影响[J].人口与发展, 2014,20(3):18-23.[Zhang Hangkong. Influence of laddering migration on residing preference[J]. Population and Development, 2014, 20(3):18-23.]
[21] 石智雷,朱明宝.农民工的就业稳定性与社会融合分析[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2014(3):49-58.[Shi Zhilei, Zhu Mingbao. Employment stability and social integration of migrant workers[J]. Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, 2014(3):49-58.]
[22] 田明.中国东部地区流动人口城市间横向迁移规律[J].地理研究, 2013,32(8):1486-1496.[Tian Ming. The migration patterns of floating population across cities in eastern China[J]. Geographical Research, 2013,32(8):1486-1496.]
[23] 李若建.广东省外来人口的定居性与流动性初步分析[J].人口研究,2007,31(6):45-54.[Li Ruojian. Propensity for permanent settlement and mobility of migrants in Guangdong Province[J]. Population Research, 2007,31(6):45-54.]
[24] 林李月,朱宇.流动人口城市间流动的时空结构特征及其性别差异:基于福建省的实证研究[J].地理科学,2015,35(6):725-732.[Lin Liyue, Zhu Yu. The space-time paths of the migrants' mobility across cities and their gender difference:Based on a survey in Fujian Province[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2015,35(6):725-732.]
[25] 高更和,杨慧敏,许家伟,等.农民工务工地非稳定性研究——以河南省33个村为例[J].人文地理,2016,31(2):43-49.[Gao Genghe, Yang Huimin, Xu Jiawei, et al. Study on the instability of migrant workers' working place:A case study of 33 villages in Henan Province[J]. Human Geography, 2016,31(2):43-49.]
[26] 李亚青,吴联灿,申曙光.企业社会保险福利对农民工流动性的影响——来自广东珠三角地区的证据[J].中国农村经济,2012(9):61-73.[Li Yaqing, Wu Liancan, Shen Shuguang. The impact of corporate social insurance benefits on the mobility of migrant workers:Evidences from Pearl River Delta of Guangdong[J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2012(9):61-73.]
[27] Hare D. ‘Push’ versus ‘pull’ factors in migration outflows and returns:Determinants of migration status and spell duration among China's rural population[J]. The Journal of Development Studies, 1999,35(3):45-72.
[28] 白南生,李靖.农民工就业流动性研究[J].管理世界,2008(7):70-76.[Bai Nansheng, Li Jing. Research on employment mobility of migrant workers[J]. Management World, 2008(7):70-76.]
[29] 王子成,赵忠.农民工迁移模式的动态选择:外出、回流还是再迁移[J].管理世界,2013(1):78-88.[Wang Zicheng, Zhao Zhong. The dynamic choice of migration mode of migrant workers:Out-migration, returning or re-migrating[J]. Management World, 2013(1):78-88.]
[30] Powers D, Xie Y. Statistical Methods for Categorical Data Analysis[M]. Bingley, UK:Emerald Group Publishing, 2008:1-7.
[31] 李志刚,刘达,林赛南.中国城乡流动人口"回流"研究进展与述评[J].人文地理,2020,35(1):1-10,62.[Li Zhigang, Liu Da, Lin Sainan. A literature review of the study on return floating population in China[J]. Human Geography, 2020,35(1):1-10,62.]
[32] Zhu Y, Lin L Y. Continuity and change in the transition from the first to the second generation of migrants in China:Insights from a survey in Fujian[J]. Habitat International, 2014,42:147-154.
[33] 卓玛草,孔祥利.农民工留城意愿再研究——基于代际差异和职业流动的比较分析[J].人口学刊,2016(3):96-105.[Zhuo Macao, Kong Xiangli. Further research on city-residing willingness of the migrant workers:Based on comparative analysis of generational differences and occupational mobility[J]. Population Journal, 2016(3):96-105.]
[34] Cao G Z, Li M, Ma Y, et al. Self-employment and intention of permanent urban settlement:Evidence from a survey of migrants in China's four major urbanising areas[J]. Urban Studies, 2015,52(4):639-664.
[35] 吴兴陆.农民工定居性迁移决策的影响因素实证研究[J].人口与经济,2005(1):5-10.[Wu Xinglu. Experimental research on the factors of the peasantry labors' migration decision for settlement[J]. Population & Economics, 2005(1):5-10.]
[36] 叶鹏飞.农民工的城市定居意愿研究——基于七省(区)调查数据的实证分析[J].社会,2011,31(2):153-169.[Ye Pengfei. Residential preferences of migrant workers:An analysis of the empirical survey data from seven provinces/districts[J]. Chinese Journal of Sociology, 2011,31(2):153-169.]
[37] 张车伟,蔡昉.试论加入WTO对中国就业结构的影响[J].当代经济科学,2002(3):14-19.[Zhang Chewei, Cai Fang. Tentatively on the impact of WTO entry on China's employment structure[J]. Modern Economic Science, 2002(3):14-19.]
[38] 肖智,张杰,郑征征.劳动力流动与第三产业的内生性研究——基于新经济地理的实证分析[J].人口研究,2012,36(2):97-105.[Xiao Zhi, Zhang Jie, Zheng Zhengzheng. Endogeneity between labor mobility and tertiary industry:An empirical analysis based on new economic geography[J]. Population Research, 2012,36(2):97-105.]
[39] 张亚丽,方齐云.城市舒适度对劳动力流动的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2019,29(3):118-125.[Zhang Yali, Fang Qiyun. The impact of city amenity on labor migration[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2019,29(3):118-125.]
[40] 夏怡然,陆铭.城市间的"孟母三迁"——公共服务影响劳动力流向的经验研究[J].管理世界,2015(10):78-90.[Xia Yiran, Lu Ming. "Three Moves of Mengmu" between cities:An empirical study on the influence of public services on labor migration[J]. Management World, 2015(10):78-90.]