中国农村电商上下行市场空间演化与调控路径研究

李瑞宁; 陈清华; 张宁

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.02.014

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人文地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2) : 131-140. DOI: 10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.02.014

乡村

中国农村电商上下行市场空间演化与调控路径研究

李瑞宁¹, 陈清华², 张宁¹

作者信息 +

STUDY ON THE SPATIAL EVOLUTION AND REGULATORY PATH OF THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM MARKET SPACE OF RURAL E-COMMERCE IN CHINA

LI Rui-ning¹, CHEN Qing-hua², ZHANG Ning¹

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文章历史 +

摘要

农村电商已成为推动中国经济增长的重要驱动力，其上下行市场空间分布格局对产业结构升级与区域协调发展具有重要意义。本文基于县域数字乡村数据，借助莫兰指数、核密度估计、随机森林与SHAP值模型，系统考察农村电商上下行市场空间演化动态、影响因素重要性与调控路径。结果表明：①中国农村电商上下行市场呈现“大集聚，小分散”多核心空间形态，上下行市场分别经历点源式与面源式集聚增长过程，并逐渐形成空间极化现象。②中国农村电商上下行市场呈现显著空间集聚分异现象，且由“销售极化，消费均化”逐渐转为“销售均化，消费极化”特征。③交通密度与信息设施对农村电商上下行市场均具有显著影响，其中产业基础对上行销售市场影响更大，而下行消费市场主要受数字资源与收入差距制约。研究提出优化供给要素发展“农产品上行”和引导需求要素推动“工业品下行”的调控路径。

Abstract

Rural e-commerce has become an important driving force for China's economic growth, with its spatial distribution pattern of upstream and downstream market is of great significance for industrial structure upgrading and regional coordinated development. Based on county-level digital rural data, this study systematically examines the spatial distribution dynamics of rural e-commerce upstream and downstream market and the importance of each influencing factor ,using Moran's index, kernel density estimation, random forest and SHAP value models. The results show that: 1) China's rural e-commerce upstream and downstream market exhibit a multi-core spatial pattern of "large agglomeration, small dispersion", the upward market and the downward market realize the spatial change process of point source and non-point source agglomeration growth respectively, and gradually shift to the right to form a polarization phenomenon. 2) China's rural e-commerce upstream and downstream market presents a significant spatial agglomeration and differentiation, and gradually turns from "sales polarization, consumption homogenization" to "sales homogenization, consumption polarization" characteristics. 3) Traffic density and information facility impact both market, and the industrial base has a greater impact on the upward market, while the downward market is mainly affected by digital resources and income gap. Accordingly, regulatory pathways should optimize supply factors for agricultural product upward sales and guide demand factors for industrial product downward consumption.

导出引用

李瑞宁, 陈清华, 张宁. 中国农村电商上下行市场空间演化与调控路径研究[J]. 人文地理. 2026, 41(2): 131-140 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.02.014

LI Rui-ning, CHEN Qing-hua, ZHANG Ning. STUDY ON THE SPATIAL EVOLUTION AND REGULATORY PATH OF THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM MARKET SPACE OF RURAL E-COMMERCE IN CHINA[J]. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY. 2026, 41(2): 131-140 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.02.014

中图分类号： K901

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