城市轨道交通的土地溢价非线性阈值效应测度——以宁波市为例

牛步青; 林雄斌; 金文纨; 高兴川

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.03.014

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人文地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3) : 142-150,173. DOI: 10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.03.014

交通

城市轨道交通的土地溢价非线性阈值效应测度——以宁波市为例

牛步青¹, 林雄斌^1,2,3, 金文纨^1,2, 高兴川^1,2

作者信息 +

NON-LINEAR AND THRESHOLD EFFECT OF URBAN RAIL TRANSIT ON LAND PREMIUMS: A CASE OF NINGBO

NIU Bu-qing¹, LIN Xiong-bin^1,2,3, JIN Wen-wan^1,2, GAO Xing-chuan^1,2

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文章历史 +

摘要

在交通强国战略下，中国城市轨道交通得到快速发展，对土地利用的重塑作用日益凸显。以宁波市为例，基于土地交易数据、轨道交通与公共服务等兴趣点（POI）数据，通过梯度提升决策树（GBDT）模型，解析区位特征、邻里特征、地块特征三类特征变量对土地价格的非线性影响。研究发现：①地块到最近地铁站距离对土地价格具有显著影响，相对重要性排在第5位；②区位特征、邻里特征、地块特征对土地价格的影响呈现复杂的非线性阈值效应；③与特征价格模型相比，GBDT拟合结果更好，体现了机器学习的优势；④轨道交通对不同类型用地的非线性效应存在差异，其中，对居住和商业用地增值效应阈值分别为4 km和2.2 km，对工业用地增值影响的阈值效应并不显著。

Abstract

Current empirical studies have largely examined the linear effect of rail transit accessibility on land values, but few explore their non-linear correlations by machine learning. To fill this understanding gap, by using the city of Ningbo as an example, this paper examines the non-linear effects of location, neighborhood,and parcel characteristics on land prices through a gradient-boosted decision tree(GBDT) model. The land transaction data and point-of-interest(POI) data of various types of public services are employed. The findings show that: 1) The distance from the parcel to the nearest rail transit station ranks 5 th in relative importance among these variables and exerts an influence on land prices. 2) High-speed rail accessibility has a “Ushape” non-linear impact on land prices; the effects of POIs like shopping, scenic, and medical facilities on land prices show a general trend transforming from a negative to a positive correlation. 3) Compared with the hedonic pricing models, GBDT has a better degree of fitting result, which reflects the advantages of machine learning. 4) The effective thresholds of rail transit accessibility on the land value premium of residential and commercial parcels are 4 km and 2.2 km respectively, and the threshold effect on industrial land price appreciation is insignificant.

导出引用

牛步青, 林雄斌, 金文纨, 高兴川. 城市轨道交通的土地溢价非线性阈值效应测度——以宁波市为例[J]. 人文地理. 2026, 41(3): 142-150,173 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.03.014

NIU Bu-qing, LIN Xiong-bin, JIN Wen-wan, GAO Xing-chuan. NON-LINEAR AND THRESHOLD EFFECT OF URBAN RAIL TRANSIT ON LAND PREMIUMS: A CASE OF NINGBO[J]. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY. 2026, 41(3): 142-150,173 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.03.014

中图分类号： K901

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