转型期京津冀城乡收缩的时空分异与城镇化关联特征——基于城乡收缩“两步研判”识别框架

李晋轩; 刘锦洋; 曾鹏; 陈缘; 王怡雯

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.04.013

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人文地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4) : 122-134,192. DOI: 10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.04.013

区域

转型期京津冀城乡收缩的时空分异与城镇化关联特征——基于城乡收缩“两步研判”识别框架

李晋轩¹, 刘锦洋², 曾鹏¹, 陈缘¹, 王怡雯¹

作者信息 +

SPATIO-TEMPORAL DIFFERENTIATION OF URBAN-RURAL SHRINKAGE AND ITS CORRELATION WITH URBANIZATION IN THE BEIJING-TIANJIN-HEBEI REGION DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD: A TWO-STEP ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK

LI Jin-xuan¹, LIU Jin-yang², ZENG Peng¹, CHEN Yuan¹, WANG Yi-wen¹

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

伴随我国城镇化从快速增长期转向稳定发展期，各大城镇群内部“兴衰并存”矛盾凸显，城乡收缩现象加速涌现。针对城镇化语境下城乡收缩的“现象、过程、效果”三维一体内涵，创新构建“两步研判”识别框架。以2000—2020年间京津冀地区149个一般县域单元为对象，实证考察转型期京津冀城乡收缩，发现：收缩结果具有空间集聚、惯性发展以及自限性特征，收缩状态呈现前期精明主导、后期粗放显化的总体规律。在幅度上，城镇与乡村收缩的程度交互决定城镇化率的最终走向；在质量上，城乡收缩对城镇化质量的影响更加稳健地表现为单向负面的总体趋势。研究结论能够为京津冀收缩县域的高质量转型发展提供底数和依据，并支撑我国更广地域的城乡融合发展与城镇化提质行动。

Abstract

During China's economic transition, declining population growth and regional re-differentiation have accelerated urban-rural shrinkage in major urban regions. Focusing on the connotations of "phenomenon-process-effect", this study constructs a two-step assessment framework for identifying urbanrural shrinkage from the perspective of urbanization, and examines its spatio-temporal differentiation and correlation with urbanization. Taking 149 county-level units in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2020 as the research objects, the study conducts empirical analysis using population census, statistical yearbook, land-use, and nighttime light data. The results show that urban-rural shrinkage is characterized by spatial agglomeration, inertial development, and self-limitation, with the overall pattern shifting from scattered shrinkage to more extensive shrinkage. At the county level, urban-rural shrinkage is closely associated with urbanization: in terms of scale, the degree of shrinkage affects the direction of urbanization change; in terms of quality, shrinkage exerts a stronger negative effect on urbanization quality. As China enters the middle and late stages of urbanization transition, the stabilizing mobility of population between urban and rural areas and the weakening of on-site urbanization have made population, land-use, and industrial factors more active in shaping county-level shrinkage. This study provides evidence for governing urban-rural shrinkage and improving urbanization quality.

导出引用

李晋轩, 刘锦洋, 曾鹏, 陈缘, 王怡雯. 转型期京津冀城乡收缩的时空分异与城镇化关联特征——基于城乡收缩“两步研判”识别框架[J]. 人文地理. 2026, 41(4): 122-134,192 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.04.013

LI Jin-xuan, LIU Jin-yang, ZENG Peng, CHEN Yuan, WANG Yi-wen. SPATIO-TEMPORAL DIFFERENTIATION OF URBAN-RURAL SHRINKAGE AND ITS CORRELATION WITH URBANIZATION IN THE BEIJING-TIANJIN-HEBEI REGION DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD: A TWO-STEP ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK[J]. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY. 2026, 41(4): 122-134,192 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.04.013

中图分类号： K901.2

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