承接产业转移政策下数字经济对地区产业结构升级的影响机制研究

马莉莉; 谷羽

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.05.007

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人文地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5) : 64-74. DOI: 10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.05.007

经济

承接产业转移政策下数字经济对地区产业结构升级的影响机制研究

马莉莉, 谷羽

作者信息 +

DIGITAL ECONOMY AND REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL UPGRADING UNDER NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL TRANSFER POLICIES

MA Li-li, GU Yu

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文章历史 +

摘要

评估国家级承接产业转移示范区政策下数字经济对地区产业结构升级的影响，对优化区域生产力布局具有重要意义。本文将示范区批复设立视为准自然实验，基于2001—2024年中国地级及以上城市面板数据，采用渐进双重差分、面板门槛与空间杜宾模型，系统检验二者叠加的冲击效应、微观路径与空间特征。研究发现：①示范区政策与数字经济叠加在短期内对产业结构升级产生显著的资源竞争与替代效应，引致阶段性结构调整期，且在老工业基地和数字基建薄弱区更为突出。②机制检验表明，要素空间错配特别是劳动力错配是核心瓶颈，在位企业策略性压缩实质性绿色研发以谋求生存，呈现出缓解短期压力的遮掩效应。③数字经济赋能产业升级存在显著的U形非线性门槛特征，只有跨越临界阈值后方能释放协同红利；同时示范区政策存在邻地虹吸效应，而数字网络有助于消解行政壁垒与地理割裂。

Abstract

Evaluating how the digital economy impacts regional industrial upgrading under policy interventions is crucial for optimizing spatial productivity layouts. Treating the establishment of National Industrial Transfer Demonstration Zones as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper uses panel data from Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2001 to 2024. We employ Staggered Difference-in-Differences, Panel Threshold, and Spatial Durbin models to examine the combined impacts, underlying mechanisms, and spatial dynamics. The main findings are as follows: 1) The policy overlap with the digital economy triggers resource competition and a substitution effect in the short term. This leads to a temporary structural adjustment period, which is particularly pronounced in old industrial bases and regions with weak digital infrastructure. 2) Factor spatial misallocation, especially in labor, serves as the primary bottleneck. Incumbent firms strategically cut back on substantive green R&D for survival, creating a masking effect that temporarily cushions immediate cost pressures. 3) The empowering effect of the digital economy follows a U-shaped non-linear threshold pattern. Synergistic dividends emerge only after crossing a critical threshold. Moreover, demonstration zone policies exert a siphon effect on neighboring areas, whereas digital networks help mitigate administrative barriers and spatial fragmentation.

导出引用

马莉莉, 谷羽. 承接产业转移政策下数字经济对地区产业结构升级的影响机制研究[J]. 人文地理. 2026, 41(5): 64-74 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.05.007

MA Li-li, GU Yu. DIGITAL ECONOMY AND REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL UPGRADING UNDER NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL TRANSFER POLICIES[J]. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY. 2026, 41(5): 64-74 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.05.007

中图分类号： F119.9

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