中国城市间人口迁移与出行倾向影响因素——基于百度搜索指数

安頔; 胡映洁

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.05.014

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人文地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5) : 152-162. DOI: 10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.05.014

人口

中国城市间人口迁移与出行倾向影响因素——基于百度搜索指数

安頔¹, 胡映洁²

作者信息 +

INFLUENCING FACTORS OF INTERCITY MOBILITY AND TRAVEL TENDENCIES IN CHINA: EVIDENCE FROM THE BAIDU SEARCH INDEX

AN Di¹, HU Ying-jie²

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

人口流动是重要的地理过程，准确识别人口流动的时空格局与影响因素是重要议题。本研究针对中国336个地级以上行政单元，利用四个关键词的百度搜索指数构建2011—2021年城市间人口迁移与出行倾向网络，综合运用社会网络分析、指数随机图模型对比两种流动倾向网络的演变趋势、空间格局和影响因素。研究发现：两种人口流动倾向与人口实际流动数据显著相关，一定程度揭示出中国城际人口流动的演化态势；空间格局上，两种人口流动倾向网络均呈现出在“胡焕庸线”以东集聚、围绕五大城市群的“钻石结构”的相似特征，网络腹地上两者表现出“组团式”与“层级式”的差异性；经济特征与地方品质因素共同塑造了两种人口流动倾向，其中人口规模与密度、三产比例和医疗服务等因素对迁移倾向的形成与演变发挥了关键作用。

Abstract

Accurately identifying the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of population mobility is crucial for high-quality demographic development. Focusing on 336 administrative units above the prefecture level in China, we used the Baidu index to construct intercity migration and travel tendency networks (2011-2021). Applying social network analysis and exponential random graph models (ERGMs), we compared their evolutionary trends, spatial patterns, and influencing factors. Both indicators were validated against official migration statistics and LBS-based travel data. Findings reveal: 1) Both indicators show significant correlations with actual mobility data, revealing the evolution of intercity mobility in China and identifying an "inflection point" in 2015. 2) Spatially, both networks aggregate east of the Hu Huanyong Line, forming a "diamond structure" centered around five major urban agglomerations. However, their hinterlands differ: travel networks are clustered, while migration networks are hierarchical. 3) Both are influenced by urban attributes, intercity relationships, and network structural variables. Economic characteristics and local qualities jointly shape them. Among these factors, population size and density, the proportion of the tertiary industry, and medical services play key roles in the formation and evolution of migration tendency.

导出引用

安頔, 胡映洁. 中国城市间人口迁移与出行倾向影响因素——基于百度搜索指数[J]. 人文地理. 2026, 41(5): 152-162 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.05.014

AN Di, HU Ying-jie. INFLUENCING FACTORS OF INTERCITY MOBILITY AND TRAVEL TENDENCIES IN CHINA: EVIDENCE FROM THE BAIDU SEARCH INDEX[J]. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY. 2026, 41(5): 152-162 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.05.014

中图分类号： F129.9

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