全球范围内供求关系的变化及集装箱运输技术的运用促使港城关联发展系统表现出明显的阶段性特征。本文运用系统论方法,从港城关联发展强度、港口城市产业结构、港-城空间结构变化等视角,对港城关联发展的生命周期模式进行了理论探索,初步归纳演绎了起步雏形期→成长壮大期→成熟扩展期→融合衰退期四阶段生命周期模式。实证分析表明,南京港城关联发展系统目前已经经历了起步雏形期、成长壮大期,现正处于成熟扩展期的初期,未来一段时间内,南京港城关联发展系统将进入成熟扩展期。

With the changing of the global supply-demand relationship and the use of container transportation technology, the relationships between ports and cities have become more complicated and subtler than at any time.
Adopting the system theory method, this article analyzes the life-circle pattern of city-port interactive development from the view of port-city associative degree, city industrial structure, spatial structure of port-city. The authors hold that the life-circle pattern of city-port interactive development can be classified into four stages that is the period of rudiment, the period of bulge, the period of maturation, the period of amalgamation and ruin. According to this model, there are different features at every stage. By analysing the concerned statistics from 1990 to 2005, it can be seen that there are three development stages of Nanjing city-port interactive development, that is the period of rudiment, the period of bulge and the early period of maturation. In the future, with the changing of some circumstances, such as the changing of industrial structure of Nanjing, the changing function of Nanjing port, the intense competition between the ports all around, the administrative system of port and the development of international trade, Nanjing city-port interactive development system will shift to the period of maturation.