旅游经济的稳定增长是影响区域旅游经济增长质量的关键因素,也是区域旅游经济发展质量和水平的重要标志。文章采用增长率法对中国旅游经济增长进行了测度,并对2014年至2016年中国的旅游经济的稳定性进行了预测。研究发现,中国旅游经济增长整体上呈现出典型的周期性,平均持续时间3-4年,属于典型的短周期,并且周期持续的时间趋短,说明中国旅游经济已经走过了大起大伏的阶段,旅游经济增长的稳定性日益增强,正在形成抵御外部风险和冲击的稳定机制。

The steady growth of the tourism economy is the key factor to affect the regional tourism economic growth quality, which is also an important symbol of the regional tourism economic development quality and level. But the tourism economic growth will also present the cycle characteristics of the expansion, contraction, recession and recovery, the cycle characteristics of the tourism economy related with the tourism industry itself vulnerability, but also with the inherent contradictions of the tourist economy operation. Research on the tourism economic growth cycle is of great significance to analyze the tourism industry fluctuations, grasp the law of the tourism industry development, and predict the development level and the trend of the tourism economy. The existing researches on the tourism economic growth cycle often focus on the single method. The research results science of the limited data and the research methods limitation has been questioned. The growth rate method is a more intuitive and mature economic cycle measurement method,which uses the growth rate of economic cycle to measure the macro economic output time series. Based on the inbound tourism arrivals since 1978,the domestic tourist trips since 1984,and the total tourism revenue since 1985,the paper uses SPSS and EVIEWS software, takes advantage of growth rate method to estimate Chinese tourism economic growth cycle. And then the paper forecasts the stability of the 2013 to 2015 China's tourism economic growth. The study finds that Chinese tourism economic growth overall shows a typical cyclical, the average duration sustains 3-4 years, which belongs to the typical short cycle, and the cycle becomes shorter and shorter, and the Chinese tourism economy has already walked up and down the stage,the tourism economic growth stability strengthens day by day. The innovation of this paper is to take the more comprehensive index based on the tourism industry structure, measures scientifically the tourism growth cycle, grasp reasonable the tourism economy growth stability.