基于PSR模型的旅游产业韧性评估及驱动因子非平稳性研究——以黄河流域为例

王兆峰; 张先甜

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2023.05.011

PDF(23728 KB)

人文地理 ›› 2023, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (5) : 88-97. DOI: 10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2023.05.011

经济

基于PSR模型的旅游产业韧性评估及驱动因子非平稳性研究——以黄河流域为例

王兆峰, 张先甜

作者信息 +

STUDY ON THE RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT OF THE TOURISM INDUSTRY AND THE DRIVER NON-STABILITY OF THE PSR MODEL: A CASE OF THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN

WANG Zhao-feng, ZHANG Xian-tian

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

本文基于PSR模型构建旅游产业韧性指标体系，运用核密度、马尔科夫链、GWTR等方法分析黄河流域80个地级市2005—2020年旅游产业韧性演变趋势与驱动因子非平稳性。结果表明：①流域内韧性呈上升趋势，缓解韧性分化现象的着力点在上、下游地区。②韧性在空间演变上呈高高聚集与低低聚集的“俱乐部趋同”现象，并在连续转移过程中存在“马太效应”。③各驱动因子影响程度依次为数字化＞政府行为＞城镇化＞产业集聚＞环境规制；局部内，各因子在不同时空上的波动方向与作用强度不尽相同。

Abstract

Scientifically evaluating the resilience of the tourism industry and exploring its influencing factors is an important link in promoting the high-quality development of tourism in the Yellow River Basin. This paper builds a tourism industry resilience index system based on the PSR model, and kernel density estimation, spatial Markov chain, GWTR and other methods are used to characterize the evolution trend, and analyze the driving factors of tourism industry resilience in 80 prefecture level cities from 2005 to 2020 in the Yellow River basin. Findings indicate that: 1) The resilience level of the tourism industry in the basin shows a slow upward trend, and the polarization phenomenon in the whole Yellow River basin and the middle reaches of the Yellow River has slowed down at the end of the study period, but the overall coordination of the resilience of the tourism industry in the Yellow River basin needs to be strengthened, and the key points to alleviate the resilience differentiation phenomenon in the basin are located in the upstream and upstream areas. 2) High level cities with resilience have evolved from regional "agglomeration" to "contiguous" distribution, while low level cities have developed from "multi center" to "single center". Resilience exhibits a phenomenon of "club convergence" in spatial evolution between high and low aggregation, and there is a certain degree of "Matthew" effect in the continuous transfer process. 3) The degree of influence of each driving factor is in order of urban digital infrastructure>government behavior>Chen urbanization>tourism industry agglomeration>environmental regulation; Locally, the wave direction and action intensity of each driving factor vary at different time and space.

导出引用

王兆峰, 张先甜. 基于PSR模型的旅游产业韧性评估及驱动因子非平稳性研究——以黄河流域为例[J]. 人文地理. 2023, 38(5): 88-97 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2023.05.011

WANG Zhao-feng, ZHANG Xian-tian. STUDY ON THE RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT OF THE TOURISM INDUSTRY AND THE DRIVER NON-STABILITY OF THE PSR MODEL: A CASE OF THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN[J]. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY. 2023, 38(5): 88-97 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2023.05.011

中图分类号： F592.7

参考文献

[1] 魏敏,魏海湘,黄海玉.疫情下旅游经济韧性与高质量发展[J].旅游学刊,2022,37(9):5-7.[Wei Min, Wei Haixiang, Huang Haiyu. Resilience and high-quality development of the tourism economy under the epidemic situation[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2022,37(9):5-7.]
[2] 方叶林,王秋月,黄震方,等.中国旅游经济韧性的时空演化及影响机理研究[J]. 地理科学进展,2023,42(3):417-427.[Fang Yelin, Wang Qiuyue, Huang Zhenfang, et al. Spatial and temporal evolution of tourism economic resilience and mechanism of impact in China[J]. Progress in Geography, 2023,42(3):417-427.]
[3] 方叶林,吴燕妮,黄震方,等.中国大陆入境旅游产业演化与韧性研究[J]. 经济地理,2023,43(1):188-196.[Fang Yelin, Wu Yanni, Huang Zhenfang, et al. Evolution of inbound tourism industry and its resilience in Chinese mainland[J]. Economic Geography, 2023,43(1):188-196.]
[4] Holling C S. Resilience and stability of ecological systems[J]. Annual review of ecology and systematics, 1973,4(1):1-23.
[5] 邵亦文,徐江.城市韧性:基于国际文献综述的概念解析[J].国际城市规划,2015,30(2):48-54.[Shao Yiwen,Xu Jiang. Understanding urban resilience:A conceptual analysis based on integrates international literature review[J]. Urban Planning International, 2015,30(2):48-54.]
[6] Luthe T, Wyss R. Assessing and planning resilience in tourism[J]. Tourism Management, 2014,44:161-163.
[7] Bowen D. Tourism and resilience[J]. Tourism Management, 2019, 71(4):363-365.
[8] Prayag G. Tourism resilience in the new normal:Beyond jingle and jangle fallacies?[J]. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 2023,54:513-520.
[9] Hystad P W, Keller P C. Towards a destination tourism disaster management framework:Long-term lessons from a forest fire disaster[J]. Tourism management, 2008,29(1):151-162.
[10] Liu A, Pratt S. Tourism's vulnerability and resilience to terrorism[J]. Tourism Management, 2017,60:404-417.
[11] Stylidis D, Terzidou M. Tourism and the economic crisis in Kavala, Greece[J]. Annals of Tourism Research, 2014,44:210-226.
[12] 邹永广,吴沛,李媛,等.新冠病毒感染疫情影响下旅游企业韧性:进阶机理与复苏路径[J].中国软科学,2023(2):125-135.[Zou Yongguang, Wu Pei, Li Yuan, et al. Tourism enterprise resilience under the influence of COVID-19:Advanced mechanism and realization path[J]. China Soft Science, 2023(2):125-135.]
[13] 乔伟桐,高楠,张新成.黄河流域旅游产业韧性的时空分异特征及门槛效应分析[J]. 统计与决策,2023,39(2):58-63.[Qiao Weitong, Gao Nan, Zhang Xinchen. Analysis of the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics and threshold effect of the tourism industry resilience in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Statistics & Decision, 2023,39(2):58-63.]
[14] 王章郡,周小曼,方忠权.基于新冠疫情冲击的城市旅游流网络结构韧性评估——以重庆市中心城区为例[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2022,36(11):148-157.[Wang Zhangjun, Zhou Xiaoman, Fang Zhong zquan. Evaluation on theresilience of urban tourism flow network structure under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic:A case of Chongqing[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2022,36(11):148-157.]
[15] 麻学锋,谭佳欣.湘西地区交通可达性对旅游环境系统韧性的影响及空间溢出效应[J]. 地理科学,2023,43(2):291-300.[Ma Xuefeng, Tan Jiaxin. Impact of traffic accessibility on the resilience of tourism environment system and spatial spillover effects in Xiangxi area[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2023,43(2):291-300.]
[16] Sofield T H B, Marafa L M. Revitalizing fieldtrips in tourism:Visual anthropology, photo elicitation,rapidappraisal, participant observation and Habermas[J]. Tourism Management, 2019,75:522-546.
[17] Biggs D, Hall C M, Stoeckl N. The resilience of formal and informal tourism enterprises to disasters:Reeftourism in Phuket, Thailand[J]. Journal of sustainable tourism, 2012,20(5):645-665.
[18] Ntounis N, Parker C, Skinner H, et al. Tourism and Hospitality industry resilience during the Covid-19 pandemic:Evidence from England[J]. Current Issues in Tourism, 2022,25(1):46-59.
[19] Hystad P W, Keller P C. Towards a destination tourism disaster management framework:Long-term lessons from a forest fire disaster[J]. Tourism management, 2008,29(1):151-162.
[20] Lim J, Won D H. How Las Vegas' tourism could survive an economic crisis?[J]. Cities, 2020,100:102643. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102643.
[21] 卜诗洁,王群,卓玛措.生态旅游发展模式演变下三江源国家公园居民生计韧性分析[J]. 地域研究与开发,2023,42(1):132-136.[Bu Shijie, Wang Qun, Zhuo Macuo. Livelihood resilience analysis of residents in three-river-source national park under the evolution of ecotourism development model[J]. Areal Research and Development, 2023,42(1):132-136.]
[22] 王庆伟,梅林,姜洪强,等.中国旅游城市星级饭店韧性时空分异及影响因素[J].地理科学,2022,42(8):1483-1491.[Wang Qingwei, Mei Lin, Jiang Hongqiang, et al. Spatial-temporal differentiation and influencing factors of star-rated hotels' resilience of China's tourism cities[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2022,42(8):1483-1491.]
[23] 李锋.基于集对分析法(SPA)的中国旅游经济系统脆弱性测度研究[J].旅游科学,2013,27(1):15-28.[Li Feng. Study of vulnerability measurement of Chinese tourism economic system:Based on SPA[J]. Urism Science, 2013,27(1):15-28.]
[24] 李雪铭,刘凯强,田深圳,等.基于DPSIR模型的城市人居环境韧性评价——以长三角城市群为例[J]. 人文地理,2022,37(1):54-62.[Li Xueming, Liu Kaiqiang, Tian Shenzhen. Evaluation of urban human settlements resilience based on DPSIR model:A case study of the Yangtze River delta urban systems[J]. Human Geography, 2022,37(1):54-62.]
[25] 杨秀平,贾云婷,翁钢民,等.城市旅游环境系统韧性的系统动力学研究——以兰州市为例[J]. 旅游科学,2020,34(2):23-40.[Yang Xiupin, Jia Yunting, Weng Gangmin, et al. A study on system dynamics of the resilienceof urban tourism environment system:A case study of Lanzhou city[J]. Tourism Science, 2020,34(2):23-40.]
[26] Duro J A, Perez-Laborda A, Fernandez M. Territorial tourism resilience in the COVID-19 summer[J]. Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights, 2022,3(1):100039. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annale.2022.100039.
[27] Benítez-Aurioles B. Tourism resilience patterns in Southern Europe[J]. Tourism Analysis, 2020,25(4):409-424.
[28] 麻学锋,胡双林.旅游城市韧性与居民幸福水平时空适配特征及影响因素——以张家界为例[J]. 资源科学,2022,44(11):2373- 2385.[Ma Xuefeng, Hu Shuanglin. Spatiotemporal adaptation characteristics and influencing factors of tourism city resilience and residents' happiness level:Taking Zhangjiajie city as an example[J]. Resources Science, 2022,44(11):2373-2385.]
[29] Sheppard V A, Williams P W. Factors that strengthen tourism resort resilience[J]. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 2016,28:20-30.
[30] Becken S. Developing a framework for assessing resilience of tourism sub-systems to climatic factors[J]. Annals of Tourism Research, 2013,43:506-528.
[31] Jain A, Shanker S, Barve A. Resilience against the COVID-19 pandemic:Is the hotel and tourism supply chain on the right path?[J]. Benchmarking:An International Journal, 2022,29(10):3194-3225.
[32] 李玉恒,黄惠倩,宋传垚.中国西南贫困地区乡村韧性研究——以重庆市为例[J]. 人文地理,2022,37(5):97-105.[Li Yuheng, Huang Huiqian, Song Chuanyao. Rural resilience in impoverished areas of southwest China:A case study of ChongQing[J]. Human Geography, 2022,37(5):97-105.]
[33] 丁建军,王璋,柳艳红,等.中国连片特困区经济韧性测度及影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学进展,2020,39(6):924-937.[Ding Jianjun, Wang Zhang, Liu Yanhong, et al. Measurement of economic resilience of contiguous poverty-strickerareas in China and influencing factor analysis[J]. Progress in Geography, 2020,39(6):924-937.]
[34] 李久林,滕璐,马昊楠,等.安徽省农业经济韧性的空间异质性及其影响因素[J].华东经济管理,2022,36(11):75-84.[Li Jiulin, Teng Lu, Ma Haonan, et al. Spatial heterogeneity and influencing factors of agricultural economic resilience in Anhui province[J]. East China Economic Management, 2022,36(11):75-84.]
[35] 孙根年,冯茂娥.西部入境旅游市场竞争态与资源区位的关系[J]. 西北大学学报(自然科学版),2003(4):459-464.[Sun Gennian, Feng Maorong. Inbound tourism market competitive state and the relationship withresources and location factor in the West of China[J]. Journal of Northwest University(Natural Science Edition), 2003(4):459-464.]
[36] 贺小荣,彭坤杰.生态位理论视角下湖南省城市旅游脆弱性评价[J]. 经济地理,2021,41(4):174-182.[He Xiaorong,Peng Kunjie. Evaluation of urban tourism vulnerability in Hunan province from the perspective of ecological niche theory, 2021,41(4):174-182.]
[37] 王兆峰,陈青青.1998年以来长江经济带旅游生态安全时空格局演化及趋势预测[J]. 生态学报,2021,41(1):320-332.[Wang Zhaofeng, Chen Qingqing. Spatio-temporal pattern evolution and trend prediction of tourism ecological security in the Yangtze river economic belt since 1998[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2021,41(1):320- 332.]
[38] 张可云,张颖.不同空间尺度下黄河流域区域经济差异的演变[J]. 经济地理,2020,40(7):1-11.[Zhang Keyun,Zhang Ying. The evolution of regional economic disparity in the Yellow River Basin at different spatial scales[J]. Economic Geography, 2020,40(7):1-11.]
[39] 袁晓玲,郭一霖,王恒旭.中国城市发展质量的时空分异及其驱动因素[J].人文地理,2022,37(6):129-138.[Yuan Xiaoling, Guo Yilin, Wang Hengxu. The spatial and temporal differentiation of urban development quality in China and its driving factors[J]. Human Geography, 2022,37(6):129-138.]
[40] 林春,谭学通.中国县域普惠金融的时空格局及影响因素[J].经济地理, 2021, 41(6):126-135.[Lin Chun, Tan Xuetong. Spatialtemporal pattern of inclusive finance and its influencing factors in China's Counties[J]. Economic Geography, 2021,41(6):126-135.]
[41] 唐睿.长三角数字经济和旅游业高质量发展的空间特征分析[J]. 经济体制改革,2022(5):51-59.[Tang Rui. Analysis of spatial characteristics of digital economy and tourism high quality development in Yangtze river delta[J]. Reform of Economic System, 2022(5):51-59.]
[42] 孙久文,陈超君,孙铮.黄河流域城市经济韧性研究和影响因素分析——基于不同城市类型的视角[J]. 经济地理,2022,42(4):1-20.[Sun Jiuwen, Chen Chaojun, Sun Zheng. Economic resilience and its influencing factors in the yellow river basin:From the perspective of different types of city[J]. Economic Geography, 2022,42(4):1-20.]
[43] 刘培学,朱知沛,曾湛荆,等.后疫情时代下的旅游区域韧性研究展望[J].现代城市研究,2021(5):19-26.[Liu Peixue,Zhu Zhipei, Zeng Zhanjing, et al. Perspectives on tourism regionma resilience research in the post-covid-19 era[J]. Modern Urban Research, 2021(5):19-26.]
[44] 王新越,芦雪静,朱文亮.我国主要旅游城市旅游业发展影响因素分析与评价[J]. 经济地理,2020,40(5):198-209.[Wang Xinyue, Lu Xuejing, Zhu Wenliang. Analysis and evaluation of the influencing factors of tourism development in China' major tourism cities[J]. Economic Geography, 2020,40(5):198-209.]
[45] 王坤,黄震方,余凤龙,等.中国城镇化对旅游经济影响的空间效应——基于空间面板计量模型的研究[J].旅游学刊,2016,31(5):15- 25.[Wang Kun, Huang Zhenfang, Yu Fenglong, et al. Spatial effects of China's urbanization on tourism economic development:Empirical research based on the spatial panel econometric model[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2016,31(5):15-25.]
[46] 油建盛,董会忠,蒋兵,等.长江经济带能源生态效率及驱动因子时空非平稳性[J].资源科学,2022,44(11):2207-2221.[You Jiansheng, Dong Huizhong, Jiang Bing, et al. Spatiotemporal non-stationarity of energy ecological efficiency and its driving factors in the Yangtze river economic belt[J]. Resources Science, 2022, 44(11):2207- 2221.]
[47] 汪晓文,陈明月,陈南旭.环境规制、引致创新与黄河流域经济增长[J].经济问题,2021(5):16-23.[Wang Xiaowen,Chen Mingyue, Chen Nanxu. Environmental regulation leads to innovation and economic growth in the yellow river basin[J]. On Economic Problems, 2021(5):16-23.]