中国赴东盟旅游安全事件集群强度：时空分异、动态演变及驱动因素

章坤; 谢朝武; 章屹祯

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2023.06.016

PDF(29920 KB)

人文地理 ›› 2023, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (6) : 148-159. DOI: 10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2023.06.016

旅游

中国赴东盟旅游安全事件集群强度：时空分异、动态演变及驱动因素

章坤¹, 谢朝武^1,2, 章屹祯³

作者信息 +

THE CLUSTER INTENSITY OF CHINESE TOURISTS' SAFETY ACCIDENTS IN ASEAN SPATIO-TEMPORAL DIFFERENTIATION, DYNAMIC EVOLUTION AND DRIVING FACTORS

ZHANG Kun¹, XIE Chao-wu^1,2, ZHANG Yi-zhen³

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

利用收敛指数、核密度估计、空间自相关、马尔科夫链等方法对中国赴东盟旅游安全事件集群强度的时空分异、动态演变及驱动因素进行探析。结果表明：①2011—2019 年中国赴东盟旅游安全事件集群强度呈收敛趋势，高集群强度国家单元呈扩展态势。②旅游安全事件集群强度类型转移具有空间锁定、梯度变化、转移模式丰富的特征。③人员规模压力、交通设施风险、自然环境风险对事件集群强度有明显抬升作用，社会安全风险通过对旅游流的“挤出”效应发挥着一定程度的抑制作用，安全管理能力对集群强度具有明显的负向抑制作用。

Abstract

This study focuses on constructing a cluster intensity model for Chinese tourists' safety accidents in ASEAN. Convergence index, KDE, spatial auto-correlation and Markov chain were used to analyze the spatio-temporal differentiation, dynamic evolution, and driving factors of cluster intensity. The results show that: Firstly, the SD, CV, and GINI of the cluster intensity show a downward trend, suggesting α and absolute β convergence effects. The "peak" of the kernel density curve indicating an overall increase in the cluster intensity. Secondly, there is a spatial correlation in the cluster intensity, and the number of countries with high cluster intensity is expanding over time. Thirdly, the Markov chain transition probability matrix illustrates that the transfer of cluster intensity follows distinct geographical patterns, characterized by spatial locking effects, gradient changes, and continuous enrichment of transfer modes. Fourthly, a driving mechanism model of cluster intensity is constructed based on the 4M framework. The results demonstrate that tourist reception pressure, risks associated with transportation facilities, and risks related to the natural environment significantly influence cluster intensity. Social security risks partially inhibit cluster intensity through the "crowding out" effect of tourist flow, while safety management capability exhibits a noticeable negative inhibition on cluster intensity.

导出引用

章坤, 谢朝武, 章屹祯. 中国赴东盟旅游安全事件集群强度：时空分异、动态演变及驱动因素[J]. 人文地理. 2023, 38(6): 148-159 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2023.06.016

ZHANG Kun, XIE Chao-wu, ZHANG Yi-zhen. THE CLUSTER INTENSITY OF CHINESE TOURISTS' SAFETY ACCIDENTS IN ASEAN SPATIO-TEMPORAL DIFFERENTIATION, DYNAMIC EVOLUTION AND DRIVING FACTORS[J]. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY. 2023, 38(6): 148-159 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2023.06.016

中图分类号： F592

参考文献

[1] 中国政府网.习近平向联合国世界旅游组织第22届全体大会致贺词[EB/OL].(2017-09-13)[2022-10-29]. http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2017-09/13/content_5224768.htm.[The Chinese Government Net. Xi Jinping delivered a congratulatory speech to the 22nd General Assembly of the UNWTO[EB/OL].(2017-09-13)[2022-10-29]. http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2017-09/13/content_5224768.htm.]
[2] 谢朝武,黄锐,陈岩英."一带一路"倡议下中国出境游客的安全保障——需求、困境与体系建构研究[J].旅游学刊,2019,34(3):41-56.[Xie Chaowu, Huang Rui, Chen Yanying. Safety guarantees for outbound Chinese tourists under "The Belt and Road" initiative:Demands, dilemmas, and system construction[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2019,34(3):41-56.]
[3] 蒋依依,温晓金,刘焱序. 2001-2015年中国出境旅游流位序规模演化特征[J].地理学报,2018,73(12):2468-2480.[Jiang Yiyi, Wen Xiaojin, Liu Yanxu. Evolutionary characteristics of China's outbound tourism flow in rank-size distribution from 2001 to 2015[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018,73(12):2468-2480.]
[4] Gozgor G, Seetaram N, Lau C K M. Effect of global uncertainty on international arrivals by purpose of visits and length of stay[J]. International Journal of Tourism Research, 2021,23(6):1086-1098.
[5] 谢朝武,黄锐.目的地旅游安全事件集群:概念框架与测度体系研究[J].旅游学刊,2023,38(5):42-57.[Xie Chaowu, Huang Rui. Destination tourism safety incidents cluster:Conceptual framework and measurement system[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2023,38(5):42-57.]
[6] 张进福,郑向敏.旅游安全表现形态与时空特征简析[J].桂林旅游高等专科学校学报,2001(1):36-38,44.[Zhang Jinfu, Zheng Xiangmin. An analysis on the occurring patterns and characteristics of tourism security[J]. Journal of Guilin Institute of Tourism, 2001(1):36-38,44.]
[7] 黄锐,谢朝武.中国出境旅游安全事故时空分布格局及形成机制[J].人文地理,2019,34(6):120-128.[Huang Rui, Xie Chaowu.Temporal and spatial distribution patterns and formation mechanism of Chinese outbound tourists'safety accidents[J]. Human Geography, 2019,34(6):120-128.]
[8] 张西林.旅游安全事故成因机制初探[J].经济地理,2003,23(4):542-546.[Zhang Xilin. A brief research on the causes and mechanism in tour security accidents[J]. Economic Geography, 2003, 23(4):542-544.]
[9] Bentley T A, Page S J. Scoping the extent of adventure tourism accidents[J]. Annals of Tourism Research, 2001,28(3):705-726.
[10] 刘逸,李源,纪捷韩.地理学视角下旅游安全事故成因研究——以我国居民赴泰旅游为例[J].世界地理研究,2022,31(2):236-248.[Liu Yi, Li Yuan, Ji Jiehan. A supplementary explanation of the causes of tourism safety accidents from the perspective of geography:The case of Chinese outbound tourists in Thailand[J]. World Regional Studies, 2022,31(2):236-248.]
[11] Bentley T A, Cater C, Page S J. Adventure and ecotourism safety in Queensland:Operator experiences and practice[J]. Tourism Management, 2010,31(5):563-571.
[12] Page S J, Bentley T A, Walker L. Scoping the nature and extent of adventure tourism operations in Scotland:How safe are they?[J]. Tourism Management, 2005,26(3):381-397.
[13] 谢朝武,张俊.我国旅游突发事件伤亡规模空间特征及其影响因素[J].旅游学刊,2015,30(1):83-91.[Xie Chaowu, Zhang Jun. Spatial characteristics and influential factors of tourism emergencies in China using casualty scales as an indicator[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2015,30(1):83-91.]
[14] 谢朝武,张俊,陈岩英.中国出境旅游安全风险的区域分布研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2018,28(1):155-160.[Xie Chaowu, Zhang Jun, Chen Yanying. Regional distribution of safety risk in China outbound tourism[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018,28(1):155-160.]
[15] 黄锐,谢朝武.中国赴东盟地区旅游安全事故风险因子的组态影响探测——基于HEVP框架的模糊集定性比较分析[J].经济地理,2021,41(7):202-212.[Huang Rui, Xie Chaowu. The detection of the configuration impact of the risk factor on the Chinese tourists'safety accidents in ASEAN:A qualitative comparative analysis of fuzzy sets based on HEVP framework[J]. Economic Geography, 2021,41(7):202-212.]
[16] 朱尧,邹永广.中国游客赴欧洲旅游安全感知事件空间特征研究[J].地域研究与开发,2019,38(6):74-79.[Zhu Yao, Zou Yongguang. Study on perceived spatial characteristics of China travel safety in Europe[J]. Areal Research and Development, 2019,38(6):74-79.]
[17] 李月调,谢朝武.赴泰中国游客安全事故时空分布研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(6):169-174.[Li Yuetiao, Xie Chaowu. Research on temporal and spatial distribution of travel accidents for Chinese tourists in Thailand[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2016,26(6):169-174.]
[18] 朱尧,邹永广,李强红,等.旅游安全事件与其空间分布结构特征——以中国公民赴马来西亚旅游安全感知事件为例[J].地域研究与开发,2022,41(4):137-142,156.[Zhu Yao, Zou Yongguang, Li Qianghong, et al. Tourism safety incidents and spatial distribution structure characteristics:Evidence from the incidents of Chinese citizens traveling to Malaysia[J]. Areal Research and Development, 2022,41(4):137-142,156.]
[19] 邹雅真,谢朝武.大陆游客赴台旅游安全事件结果特征及其引致因素研究[J].旅游学刊,2016,31(8):81-89.[Zou Yazhen, Xie Chaowu. Research on result characteristics and triggering factors of safety-related events of mainland residents'travels to Taiwan province[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2016,31(8):81-89.]
[20] 吕拉昌,魏也华.产业集群理论的争论、困惑与评论[J].人文地理, 2007,96(4):21-26.[Lu Lachang, Wei Yehua. Industrial clusters:Debates, dilemmas, and evaluation[J]. Human Geography, 2007,96(4):21-26.]
[21] Grassé P P. La reconstruction du nid et les coordinations interindividuelles chezBellicositermes natalensis etCubitermes sp. la théorie de la stigmergie:Essai d'interprétation du comportement des termites constructeurs[J]. Insectes Sociaux, 1959,6(1):41-80.
[22] Li L, Cheng J Q, Bannister J, et al. Geographically and temporally weighted co-location quotient:An analysis of spatiotemporal crime patterns in greater Manchester[J]. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 2022,36(5):918-942.
[23] Andresen M A. Location quotients, ambient populations, and the spatial analysis of crime in Vancouver, Canada[J]. Environment and Planning A, 2007,39(10):2423-2444.
[24] Beconytė G, Govorov M, Balčiūnas A, et al. Spatial distribution of criminal events in Lithuania in 2015-2019[J]. Journal of Maps, 2021,17(1):154-162.
[25] 张琳彦.产业集聚测度方法研究[J].技术经济与管理研究,2015(6):113-118.[Zhang Linyan. Research on the measurement methods of industrial agglomeration[J]. Journal of Technical Economics&Management, 2015(6):113-118.]
[26] Chang C L, Khamkaew T, Tansuchat R, et al. Interdependence of international tourism demand and volatility in leading ASEAN destinations[J]. Tourism Economics, 2011,17(3):481-507.
[27] Wilson J Q, Kelling G L. Broken windows[J]. Atlantic Monthly, 1982,249(3):29-38.
[28] Liu J J, Wu J S, Che T T. Understanding perceived environment quality in affecting tourists'environmentally responsible behaviours:A broken windows theory perspective[J]. Tourism Management Perspectives, 2019,31:236-244.
[29] 田泽民,程乾,石张宇.旅游者环境责任行为驱动因素——破窗理论的视角[J].社会科学家, 2020(8):32-37.[Tian Zemin, Cheng Qian, Shi Zhangyu. The driving factors of tourists'environmental responsibility behavior:From the view of break pane law[J]. Social Scientist, 2020(8):32-37.]
[30] 郑滋椀,金诚,John E Eck,等.犯罪制图:理解犯罪热点(上)[J].预防青少年犯罪研究,2012(4):65-73.[Zhang Ziwan, Jin Cheng, John E Eck, et al. Crime mapping:Understanding crime hotspots[J]. Juvenile Delinquency Prevention Research, 2012(4):65-73.]
[31] Hoen A R, Oosterhaven J. On the measurement of comparative advantage[J]. The Annals of Regional Science, 2006,40(3):677-691.
[32] 刘玉珂,金声甜.中部六省能源消费碳排放时空演变特征及影响因素[J].经济地理,2019,39(1):182-191.[Liu Yuke, Jin Shengtian. Temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors of energy consumption carbon emissions in six provinces of central China[J]. Economic Geography, 2019,39(1):182-191.]
[33] 王泽宇,程帆.中国海洋环境规制效率时空分异及影响因素[J].地理研究,2021,40(10):2885-2896.[Wang Zeyu, Cheng Fan.Spatiotemporal differentiation and influencing factors of China's marine environmental regulation efficiency[J]. Geographical Research, 2021,40(10):2885-2896.]
[34] 赵雪雁,王伟军,万文玉.中国居民健康水平的区域差异:2003-2013[J].地理学报,2017,72(4):685-698.[Zhao Xueyan, Wang Weijun, Wan Wenyu. Regional inequalities of residents'health level in China:2003-2013[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(4):685-698.]
[35] 穆学青,郭向阳,明庆忠,等.黄河流域旅游生态安全的动态演变特征及驱动因素[J].地理学报,2022,77(3):714-735.[Mu Xueqing, Guo Xiangyang, Ming Qingzhong, et al. Dynamic evolution characteristics and driving factors of tourism ecological security in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022,77(3):714-735.]
[36] Heinrich H W. Industrial Accident Prevention[M]. New York&London:McGraw-Hill, 1931:1-366.
[37] Chen C F, Tsai D C. How destination image and evaluative factors affect behavioral intentions?[J]. Tourism Management, 2007,28(4):1115-1122.
[38] 马恩朴,蔡建明,林静,等.2000-2014年全球粮食安全格局的时空演化及影响因素[J].地理学报,2020,75(2):332-347.[Ma Enpu, Cai Jianming, Lin Jing, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution of global food security pattern and its influencing factors in 2000-2014[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020,75(2):332-347.]
[39] 章坤,谢朝武.我国涉水旅游安全事故的时空分布及成因研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2020,16(8):167-172.[Zhang Kun, Xie Chaowu. Research on temporal and spatial distribution and causes of water-related tourism safety accidents in China[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2020,16(8):167-172.]
[40] 殷杰,郑向敏.高聚集游客群安全的影响因素与实现路径——基于扎根理论的探索[J].旅游学刊,2018,33(7):133-144.[Yin Jie, Zheng Xiangmin. Application of grounded theory to identify factors influencing the security of highly aggregated tourist crowds and their implementation paths:Based on grounded theory[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2018,33(7):133-144.]
[41] Kitamura Y, Hayashi M, Yagi E. Traffic problems in Southeast Asia featuring the case of Cambodia's traffic accidents involving motorcycles[J]. IATSS Research, 2018,42(4):163-170.
[42] 许培源,刘雅芳."一带一路"沿线国家恐怖活动对旅游业发展的影响[J].经济地理,2020,40(3):216-224.[Xu Peiyuan, Liu Yafang. The impact of terrorist activities on tourism development in countries along the Belt and Road[J]. Economic Geography, 2020,40(3):216-224.]
[43] Sönmez S F, Graefe A R. Influence of terrorism risk on foreign tourism decisions[J]. Annals of Tourism Research, 1998,25(1):112-144.
[44] Veréb V N, Nobre H, Farhangmehr M. The fear of terrorism and shift in cosmopolitan values[J]. Annals of Tourism Research, 2018, 4(4):452-483.
[45] 邹永广,郑向敏.游客安全感的影响要素、形成机理及提升策略研究[J].人文地理,2012,27(3):103-108,77.[Zou Yongguang, Zheng Xiangmin. Study on the influencing factors, formation mechanism and promotion tactics of the sense of tourist secturity[J]. Human Geography, 2012,27(3):103-108,77.]
[46] 徐建华.计量地理学(第二版)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2014:146-150.[Xu Jianhua. Quantitative Geography (2nd Edition)[M]. Beijing:Higher Education Press, 2014:146-150.]
[47] 赖菲菲,谢朝武,黄锐.两阶段情景下多维距离因素对中国出境旅游影响研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2021,37(4):128-136.[Lai Feifei, Xie Chaowu, Huang Rui. Research on the impact of multidimensional distance factors on China's outbound tourism under twostage scenarios[J]. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 2021, 37(4):128-136.]