文章通过对中国出境旅游市场规模、结构、时间模式、消费水平、组织方式等方面变动情况的回顾,认为2005年出境旅游市场将可能继续冲高到3500万人次,保守估计也在3250万左右,还指出了我国出境旅游高消费的几个方面原因,初期的高消费现象将随着市场的成熟而逐渐理性;在以团队出境为主的基础上,将在近程出境旅游目的地快速推进自由行的模式。文章最后讨论了出境旅游政策短期内变动可能性,认为出境政策的变化将是缓慢推进,而且对于出境市场开放所能产生的效用应该建立理性预期。

The paper reviewed some changes of the Chinese outbound market,such as the scale、the structure、the time pattern、the Consumption level and the travel model. On the basis of those analyses, the paper pointed the trends of this market, and then considered that the 35-million may be the largest scale for the Chinese outbound market in 2005. In the future, the outbound market will be composed by more free-walker, but less team-organized tourist, especially in the periphery nation and area. At last, the paper discussed the possibility of the policy change for outbound tourism, and pointed that the policy will change slowly. All the people should not overrate the effect of the opening for outbound tourism.