旅游危机事件会给区域旅游业带来一系列的影响,正确地分析评估旅游危机的影响,有助于总结旅游危机的影响规律和科学地制定旅游产业恢复政策。本文运用旅游本底线法对2003年的"SARS"事件给我国入境旅游所造成的影响进行了分析。结果表明,受此影响,我国入境旅游外汇总损失是56.7105亿美元,入境旅游人次损失量是1164.1万人次,入境旅游整体受此影响的周期是一年;我国入境旅游的抗旅游危机事件的冲击能力正逐步增强。

The nature of tourism and characteristic of tourism industry determine that tourism unexpected crisis can bring a series of influence to regional tourism industry.The correct analysis and assessment on the influence of tourism unexpected crisis can facilitate making the policy of recovering tourism industry scientifically.At present, the methods to evaluate the influence of tourism unexpected crisis are mainly that:1) subjective experience judgment; 2) time series method. Compared with the tourism-background-line method, the scientific and accuracy of the above two methods are doubtful.In this article, using the tourism-background-line method, the author made a quantitative analysis on the inbound tourism loss which the "SARS" crisis in 2003 had effect on, and drew the following conclusions:1)The total foreign currency loss of inbound tourism is 5.67 billion dollars. Inbound tourism person-time losses amount to 11.64 million. 2)The whole influence cycle of "SARS" to inbound tourism of our country is one year; 3)The tourism unexpected crisis have great impact on customer recourses markets close to our country, but it is very fast to resume. To the remote advanced market, it has also great impact, but recovering is relatively slow.