耦合管控效应的城市空间多情景模拟与政策分析

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2017.03.009

PDF(3267 KB)

人文地理 ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3) : 68-76. DOI: 10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2017.03.009

城市

耦合管控效应的城市空间多情景模拟与政策分析

夏畅¹, 王海军^1,2, 张安琪^1,3, 邓羽⁴

作者信息 +

MULTI-SCENARIO SIMULATION AND POLICYANALYSIS OF URBAN SPACE UNDER THE EFFECTS OF COUPLING AND CONTROL LING

XIA Chang¹, WANG Hai-jun^1,2, ZHANG An-qi^1,3, DENG Yu⁴

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

将城市扩展数量管控、土地差别化管控及土地利用分区管控等多个政策方案，嵌入元胞自动机的转换规则中，进行耦合管控效应的城市空间多情景模拟与政策分析。研究结果表明：①在城市扩展过程中，伴随着生态用地面积锐减、建设用地利用效率低下及土地利用结构不合理等风险，政策管控有利于缓解上述问题；②土地政策不能扭转景观破碎化及复杂化加剧的现象，但可以抑制其趋势；③多政策同时使用可以在保护优势斑块方面产生协同效应，其效果优于单独使用三种政策，但在遏制景观破碎化和复杂化方面不能发挥单一政策所具有的最大生态效应；④土地政策的优先级为：数量管控—> 分区管控—> 差别化管控。

Abstract

The temporal and spatial evolution of urban expansion is a complicated dynamic system, and it is very important to master law of this evolution in land management and urban development planning. Traditional simulation of land use change focused more on the development law of land use space, and but less on the analysis of land regulation mechanism.The evaluation of land policy was mostly carried out by selecting characteristic index to analyze the situation prior and subsequent to policy implementation, with the demerits of time lag and small application scope. The combination of urban cellular automata and land policy evaluation is to estimate and predict the effectiveness of land use change, and to identify the risk of ecological damage. This paper attempts to simulate multi-scenario and conduct an analysis of the policy of urban space under the effects of coupling and control by embedding into the transitional rules of cellular automata the following schemes, namely quantitative management of urban expansion, differential handling of land, and zoning treatment of land use. Then logistic regression method to mining city spatial development inertia is employed and a model basing on multi policy compound control is constructed to simulate the planning period of future urban construction of Jiangxia. Finally, the result is compared with the prediction of each single control.

导出引用

夏畅, 王海军, 张安琪, 邓羽. 耦合管控效应的城市空间多情景模拟与政策分析[J]. 人文地理. 2017, 32(3): 68-76 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2017.03.009

XIA Chang, WANG Hai-jun, ZHANG An-qi, DENG Yu. MULTI-SCENARIO SIMULATION AND POLICYANALYSIS OF URBAN SPACE UNDER THE EFFECTS OF COUPLING AND CONTROL LING[J]. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY. 2017, 32(3): 68-76 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2017.03.009

中图分类号： K901

参考文献

[1] 宁越敏.中国城市化特点、问题及治理[J].南京社会科学,2012(10): 19-27. [Ning Yuemin. A study on the urbanization, urban problems and solution in China[J]. Social Sciences in Nanjing, 2012(10):19-27.]

[2] Wang H J, He Q Q, Liu X J, et al. Global urbanization research from 1991 to 2009: A systematic research review[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2012,104(3/4):299-309.

[3] Liu Y B. Exploring the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in China using ARDL and FDM[J]. Energy, 2009,34 (11):1846-1854.

[4] 孙平军,修春亮.中国城市空间扩展研究进展[J].地域研究与开发, 2014,33(4):46-52. [Sun Pingjun, Xiu Chunliang. Progress in reaseach on urban spatial expansion of China[J]. Areal Research and Development, 2014,33(4):46-52.]

[5] 卓莉,李强,史培军,等.20 世纪90 年代中国城市用地外延扩展特征分析[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2007,46(3):98-102. [Zhuo Li, Li Qiang, Shi Peijun, et al. Characteristics analysis of urban land expansion in China in 1990s using DMSP/OLS data[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni, 2007,46(3):98-102.]

[6] 郜晓雯,刘涛,曹广忠.都市区与非都市区城镇用地扩张的驱动力研究——以长三角地区为例[J].人文地理,2012,27(4):88-93. [Gao Xiaowen, Liu Tao, Cao Guangzhong. On the influencing factors of metropolitan and non-metropolitan urban land expansion in Yangtze Delta region[J]. Human Geography, 2012,27(4):88-93.]

[7] 匡文慧,刘纪远,邵全琴,等.区域尺度城市增长时空动态模型及其应用[J].地理学报,2011,66(2):178-188. [Kuang Wenhui, Liu Jiyuan, Shao Quanqin, et al. Dynamic urban growth model at regional scale and its application[J]. Acta Geographic Sinica, 2011,66(2):178-188.]

[8] Li J, Dong S, Li Z, et al. A bibliometric analysis of Chinese ecological and environmental research on urbanization[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2014,5(3):211-221.

[9] 陈利顶,孙然好,刘海莲.城市景观格局演变的生态环境效应研究进展[J].生态学报,2013,33(4):1042-1050. [Chen Liding, Sun Ranhao, Liu Hailian. Eco-environmental effects of urban landscape pattern changes: Progresses, problems, and perspectives[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2013,33(4):1042-1050.]

[10] 吴健生,冯喆,高阳,等.基于DLS模型的城市土地政策生态效应研究——以深圳市为例[J].地理学报,2014,69(11):1673-1682. [Wu Jiansheng, Feng Zhe, Gao Yang, et al. Research on ecological effects of urban land policy based on DLS model: A case study on Shenzhen city[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014,69(11):1673-1682.]

[11] 黎夏,叶嘉安,刘小平,等.地理模拟系统:元胞自动机与多智能体[M]. 北京: 科学出版社,2007:1-6. [Li Xia, Yeh Anthony Gar-On, Liu Xiaoping, et al. Geographical -simulation Systems: Cellular Automata and Multi-agent System[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2007:1-6.]

[12] 周成虎,孙战利,谢一春.地理元胞自动机研究[M].北京:科学出版社,1999:1-163. [Zhou Chenghu, Sun Zhanli, Xie Yichun. The Research of Geography Cellular Automata[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 1999:1-163.]

[13] He CY, Zhao YY, Tian J, et al. Modeling the urban landscape dynamics in a megalopolitan cluster area by incorporating a gravitational field model with cellular automata[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2013,113:78-89.

[14] 刘小平,黎夏,陈逸敏,等.基于多智能体的居住区位空间选择模型[J]. 地理学报,2010,65(6):695-707. [Liu Xiaoping, Li Xia, Chen Yimin, et al. Agent-based model of residential location[J]. Acta Geographic Sinica, 2010,65(6):695-707.]

[15] 王海军,贺三维,张文婷.利用地图代数和数据场拓展元胞自动机理论[J]. 武汉大学学报( 信息科学版),2010,35(12):1474-1477.[Wang Haijun, He Sanwei, Zhang Wenting. Theoretical study on cellular automata utilizing data field and map algebra[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2010,35(12): 1474-1477.]

[16] 冯徽徽,刘慧平,周彬学,等.SLEUTH模型的参数行为研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2010,28(6):39-43. [Feng Huihui, Liu Huiping, Zhou Binxue, et al. Study on the parameters behavior of the SLEUTH model[J]. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 2010,28(6):39-43.]

[17] 杨勇,任志远,李开宇.基于GIS 的西安城市扩展与模拟研究[J].人文地理,2010,25(2):95-98. [Yang Yong, Ren Zhiyuan, Li Kaiyu. A study on construction land extension and simulation of Xi'an city based on GIS[J]. Human Geography, 2010,25(2):95-98.]

[18] 舒帮荣,刘友兆,张鸿辉,等.集成变权与约束性模糊CA的城镇用地扩张情景模拟[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2013,38(4):498-503. [Shu Bangrong, Liu Youzhao, Zhang Honghui, et al. Scenario simulation of urban land expansion integrate variable weight with constrained fuzzy cellular automata[J]. Geomatics and Information Science ofWuhan University, 2013,38(4):498-503.]

[19] 王海军,张文婷,贺三维,等.利用元胞自动机和模糊C均值进行图像分割[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2010,35(11):1288-1291.[Wang Haijun, Zhang Wenting, He Sanwei, et al. An image segmentation method based on cellular automata and fuzzy C means[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2010,35 (11):1288-1291.]

[20] He Q Q, Dai L, Zhang W T, et al. An unsupervised classifier for remote-sensing imagery based on improved cellular automata[J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2013,34(21):7821-7837.

[21] 王海军,张文婷,陈莹莹,等.利用元胞自动机作用域构建林火蔓延模型[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2010,36(5):575-581. [Wang Haijun, Zhang Wenting, Chen Yingying, et al. Fire spreading model based on CA scope[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2010,36(5):575-581.]

[22] 何春阳,史培军,陈晋,等.北京地区土地利用/覆盖变化研究[J].地理研究,2001,20(6):679-687. [He Chunyang, Shi Peijun, Chen Jin, et al. A study on land use/cover change in Beijing area[J]. Geographical Research, 2001,20(6):679-687.]

[23] Zhao Y, Cui B, Murayama Y. Characteristics of neighborhood interaction in urban land-use changes: A comparative study between three metropolitan areas of Japan[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2011,21(1):65-78.

[24] 龚建周,曹紫薇,陈康林,等.基于元胞自动机模型的广州市用地变化模拟研究[J]. 广州大学学报: 自然科学版,2013,12(6):78-85.[Gong Jianzhou, Cao Ziwei, Chen Kanglin, et al. Cellular automata models for forecasting urban land-use change of Guangzhou[J]. Journal of Guangzhou University(Natural Science Edition), 2013, 12(6):78-85.]

[25] 杨云丽,陈振杰,周琛,等.多情景土地利用模拟结果差异性评估方法研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2014,30(5):83-87. [Yang Yunli, Chen Zhenjie, Zhou Chen, et al. Analysis on evaluation method based on difference in land use scenario simulation results of multiple scenarios[J]. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 2014,30 (5):83-87.]

[26] Sun J, Zhang L, Peng C, et al. CA-based urban land use prediction model: A case study on orange county, Florida, US[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2012,12(6):85-92.

[27] Tobler W R. A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region[J]. Economic geography, 1970,46(S1):234-240.

[28] Couclelis H. Cellular worlds: A framework for modeling micromacro dynamics[J]. Environment and planning A, 1985,17(5):585-596.

[29] Couclelis H. From cellular automata to urban models: New principles for model development and implementation[J]. Environment and Planning B, 1997,24(2):165-174.

[30] White R, Engelen G. Cellular automata and fracta1 urban form : A cellular modeling APP roach to the evolution of urban land use patterns[J]. Environment and Planning A, 1993,25(8):1175-1199.

[31] White R, Engelen G. Cellular automata as the basis of integrated dynamic regional modeling[J]. Environment and Planning B, 1997, 24(2):235-246.

[32] Batty M, Xie Y. Modeling inside GIS: Part2. Selecting and calibrating urban models using ARC/INFO[J]. International Journal of Geographical Information Systems, 1994,8(5):451-470.

[33] Clarke KC, Hoppen S, Gaydos L J. A self-modeling cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay Area[J]. Environment and Planning B, 1997,24(2):247-261.

[34] Takeyama M, Couelelis H. Map dynamics: Integrating cellular automata and GIS through geo-algebra[J]. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 1997,11(l):73-91.

[35] W F L. SimLand: A prototype to simulate land conversion through the integrated GIS and CA with AHP-derived transition rules[J]. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 1998,12 (1):63-82.

[36] Sun Z, Deal B, Pallathucheril V G. The land-use evolution and impact assessment model: A comprehensive urban planning support system[J]. Urisa Journal, 2009,21(1):57-68.

[37] 刘小平,黎夏,艾彬,等.基于多智能体的土地利用模拟与规划模型[J]. 地理学报,2006,61(10):1101-1112. [Liu Xiaoping, Li Xia, Ai Bin, et al. Multi-agent systems for simulating and planning land use development[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006,61(10):1101-1112.]

[38] 杨俊,解鹏,席建超,等.基于元胞自动机模型的土地利用变化模拟 ——以大连经济技术开发区为例[J].地理学报,2015,70(3):461-474. [Yang Jun, Xie Peng, Xi Jianchao, et al. LUCC simulation based on the cellular automata simulation: A case study of Dalian economic and technological development zone[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015,70(3):461-474.]

[39] 黎夏,叶嘉安.约束性单元自动演化以模型及可持续城市发展形态的模拟[J].地理学报,1999,54(4):289-298. [Li Xia, Yeh Anthony Gar-On. Constrained cellular automata for modelling sustainable urban forms[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1999,54(4):289-298.]

[40] 杨青生,黎夏.珠三角中心镇城市化对区域城市空间结构的影响 —— 基于CA 的模拟和分析[J]. 人文地理,2007,22(2):87-91.[Yang Qingsheng, Li Xia. The influence of urbanization of central town on the spatial structure of regional city based on the stimulation and analysis of cellular automata[J]. Human Geography, 2007, 22(2):87-91.]

[41] Geertman S, Hagoort M, Ottens H. Spatial-temporal specific neighborhood rules for cellular automata land-use modeling[J]. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 2007,21(5): 547-568.

[42] 马世发,艾彬,欧金沛.约束性CA在城乡建设用地指标空间化中的应用[J].地球信息科学学报,2013,33(10):1246-1250. [Ma Shifa, Ai Bin, Ou Jinpei. Spatial allocation of construction land with constrained cellular automata model[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2013,33(10):1246-1250.]

[43] 龙瀛,韩昊英,毛其智.利用约束性CA制定城市增长边界[J].地理学报,2009,64(8):999-1008. [Long Ying, Han Haoying, Mao Qizhi. Establishing urban growth boundaries using constrained CA[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009,64(8):999-1008.]

[44] 黎夏,叶嘉安.基于神经网络的单元自动机CA及真实和优化的城市模拟[J]. 地理学报,2002,57(2):159-166. [Li Xia, Yeh Anthony Gar-On. Neural-network-based cellular automata for realistic and idealized urban simulation[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002,57(2): 159-166.]

[45] He C, Okada N, Zhang Q, et al. Modelling dynamic urban expansion processes incorporating a potential model with cellular automata[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2008,86(1):79-91.

[46] Yang J, Wang Z, Yang D, et al. Ecological risk assessment of genetically modified crops based on cellular automata modeling[J]. Biotechnology Advances, 2009,27(6):1132-1136.

[47] Jokar Arsanjani J, Helbich M, Kainz W, et al. Integration of logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular automata models to simulate urban expansion[J]. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geo-information, 2013,21(1):265-275.

[48] 马世发,艾彬,念沛豪.基于约束性CA的土地利用规划预评估及警情探测[J].地理与地理科学信息,2014,30(4):52-54. [Ma Shifa, Ai Bin, Nian Peihao. Pre-assessment and warning of land use planning with constrained cellular automata[J]. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 2014,30(4):52-54.]

[49] 何春阳,陈晋,史培军,等.大都市区城市扩展模型——以北京城市扩展模拟为例[J].地理学报,2003,58(2):294-304. [He Chunyang, Chen Jin, Shi Peijun, et al. City expansion model of metropolitan area in China: A case study of Beijing[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003,58(2):294-304.]

[50] 龙瀛,沈振江,毛其智,等.基于约束性CA方法的北京城市形态情景分析[J].地理学报,2010,65(6):644-655. [Long Ying, Shen Zhenjiang, Mao Qizhi, et al. Form scenario analysis using constrained cellular automata[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010,65(6):644-655.]

[51] 邓羽. 城市空间扩展的自组织特征与规划管控效应评估——以北京市为例[J].地理研究,2016,35(2):353-362. [Deng Yu. Self-organization characteristics of urban extension and the planning effect evaluation: A case study of Beijing[J]. Geographical Research, 2016, 35(2):353-362.]