MULTI-SCENARIO SIMULATION AND POLICYANALYSIS OF URBAN SPACE UNDER THE EFFECTS OF COUPLING AND CONTROL LING
XIA Chang1, WANG Hai-jun1,2, ZHANG An-qi1,3, DENG Yu4
1. School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information System, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China;
3. School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, China;
4. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS, Beijing 100101, China
Abstract：The temporal and spatial evolution of urban expansion is a complicated dynamic system, and it is very important to master law of this evolution in land management and urban development planning. Traditional simulation of land use change focused more on the development law of land use space, and but less on the analysis of land regulation mechanism.The evaluation of land policy was mostly carried out by selecting characteristic index to analyze the situation prior and subsequent to policy implementation, with the demerits of time lag and small application scope. The combination of urban cellular automata and land policy evaluation is to estimate and predict the effectiveness of land use change, and to identify the risk of ecological damage. This paper attempts to simulate multi-scenario and conduct an analysis of the policy of urban space under the effects of coupling and control by embedding into the transitional rules of cellular automata the following schemes, namely quantitative management of urban expansion, differential handling of land, and zoning treatment of land use. Then logistic regression method to mining city spatial development inertia is employed and a model basing on multi policy compound control is constructed to simulate the planning period of future urban construction of Jiangxia. Finally, the result is compared with the prediction of each single control.
夏畅, 王海军, 张安琪, 邓羽. 耦合管控效应的城市空间多情景模拟与政策分析[J]. 人文地理, 2017, 32(3): 68-76.
XIA Chang, WANG Hai-jun, ZHANG An-qi, DENG Yu. MULTI-SCENARIO SIMULATION AND POLICYANALYSIS OF URBAN SPACE UNDER THE EFFECTS OF COUPLING AND CONTROL LING. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 32(3): 68-76.
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