Abstract：The agglomeration distribution of urban population and the formation of urban belt are a spatial phenomenon, and space forces have an important influence on their formation and evolution. The spatial effect of urban population agglomeration has two main aspects:on the one hand, it is spatial dependency or spatial autocorrelation, that is, the population distribution among different cities can interact with each other; on the other hand, it is spatial heterogeneity which the urban population distribution is affected by the location factors. Based on the method of spatial econometrics and trend surface analysis, this paper studies spatial agglomeration distribution and trend of urban population in China, using the data of urban population, latitude and longitude coordinate of 617 cities at or above the county level in 1998 and 2011. The conclusions are as follows:first of all, urban population distribution which is clustered has significant spatial autocorrelation and spatial location correlation in China. Secondly, the population distribution of a city is closely related to the population distribution of neighboring cities in China, and its 6th order space autocorrelation effect is the strongest. Thirdly, there is a significant spatial geography effect in the agglomeration distribution of urban population, and the geographical location has an important impact on the spatial distribution and vertical form formation of urban population system in China. Fourthly, under the effect of spatial autocorrelation and spatial geographical position, the gap of urban population distribution between west and east in China is becoming more and more obvious.
吴雪萍, 赵果庆. 中国城市人口集聚分布——基于空间效应的研究[J]. 人文地理, 2018, 33(2): 130-137.
WU Xue-ping, ZHAO Guo-qing. THE AGGLOMERATION DISTRIBUTION OF URBAN POPULATION IN CHINA: BASED ON SPATIAL EFFECT. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 33(2): 130-137.
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[4]
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[5]
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[5]
顾朝林,庞海峰.建国以来国家城市化空间过程研究[J].地理科学, 2009,29(1):10-14.[Gu Chaolin, Pang Haifeng. Evolution of chinese urbanization spaces:Kernel spatial approach[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2009,29(1):10-14.]
[6]
曹跃群,刘培森.中国城市规模分布及影响因素实证研究[J].西北人口,2011,32(4):47-52.[Cao Yuequn, Liu Peisen. China's urban size distribution and effect factors of empirical study[J]. Northwest Population, 2011,32(4):47-52.]
[7]
程开明,庄燕杰.城市体系位序-规模特征的空间计量分析——以中部地区地级以上城市为例[J].地理科学,2012,32(8):905-912.[Cheng Kaiming, Zhuang Yanjie. Spatial econometric analysis of the rank-size rule for urban system:A case of prefectural-level cities in China's middle area[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012,32(8):905-912.]
[12]
卓莉,史培军,陈晋.20世纪90年代中国城市时空变化特征——基于灯光指数CNLI方法的探讨[J].地理学报,2003,58(6):893-902.[Zhou Li, Shi Peijun, Chen Jin. Application of compound night light index derived from DMSP/OLS data to urbanization analysis in China in the 1990s[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003,58(6):893-902.]
[6]
曹跃群,刘培森.中国城市规模分布及影响因素实证研究[J].西北人口,2011,32(4):47-52.[Cao Yuequn, Liu Peisen. China's urban size distribution and effect factors of empirical study[J]. Northwest Population, 2011,32(4):47-52.]
[7]
程开明,庄燕杰.城市体系位序-规模特征的空间计量分析——以中部地区地级以上城市为例[J].地理科学,2012,32(8):905-912.[Cheng Kaiming, Zhuang Yanjie. Spatial econometric analysis of the rank-size rule for urban system:A case of prefectural-level cities in China's middle area[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012,32(8):905-912.]
[8]
蒋子龙,樊杰,陈东.2001-2010年中国人口与经济的空间集聚与均衡特征分析[J].经济地理,2014,34(5):9-13.[Jiang Zilong, Fan Jie, Chan Dong. Analysis of spatial agglomeration and equilibrium characteristics for population and economic in China during 2001-2010[J]. Economic Geography, 2014,34(5):9-13.]
[13]
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[7]
程开明,庄燕杰.城市体系位序-规模特征的空间计量分析——以中部地区地级以上城市为例[J].地理科学,2012,32(8):905-912.[Cheng Kaiming, Zhuang Yanjie. Spatial econometric analysis of the rank-size rule for urban system:A case of prefectural-level cities in China's middle area[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012,32(8):905-912.]
[8]
蒋子龙,樊杰,陈东.2001-2010年中国人口与经济的空间集聚与均衡特征分析[J].经济地理,2014,34(5):9-13.[Jiang Zilong, Fan Jie, Chan Dong. Analysis of spatial agglomeration and equilibrium characteristics for population and economic in China during 2001-2010[J]. Economic Geography, 2014,34(5):9-13.]
[9]
叶浩,庄大昌.城市体系规模分布与空间分布的关系研究[J].世界地理研究,2015,24(3):75-82.[Ye Hao, Zhang Da-chang. The relationship between size distribution and spatial distribution of urban systems[J]. World Regional Studies, 2015,24(3):75-82.]
[14]
赵果庆,罗宏翔.中国制造业集聚:度量与显著性检验——基于集聚测量新方法[J].统计研究,2009,26(3):64-69.[Zhao Guoqing, Luo Hongxiang. An intensity measure and significance test of China's manufacturing industry agglomeration based on the new method on agglomeration intensity measure[J]. Statistical Research, 2009,26(3):64-69.]
[8]
蒋子龙,樊杰,陈东.2001-2010年中国人口与经济的空间集聚与均衡特征分析[J].经济地理,2014,34(5):9-13.[Jiang Zilong, Fan Jie, Chan Dong. Analysis of spatial agglomeration and equilibrium characteristics for population and economic in China during 2001-2010[J]. Economic Geography, 2014,34(5):9-13.]
[9]
叶浩,庄大昌.城市体系规模分布与空间分布的关系研究[J].世界地理研究,2015,24(3):75-82.[Ye Hao, Zhang Da-chang. The relationship between size distribution and spatial distribution of urban systems[J]. World Regional Studies, 2015,24(3):75-82.]
[10]
张耀军,荆文锴,李硕.基于人口空间分布的城镇化发展趋势研究[J].河南社会科学,2016,24(6):108-113.[Zhang Yaojun, Jing Wenkai, Li Shuo. Research on the development trend of urbanization based on population sptial distribution[J]. Henan Social Sciences, 2016,24(6):108-113.]
[15]
黄登仕.经济系统的密度周期性与复杂性[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2003:42-46.[Huang Dengshi. Periodic Density and Complexity of the Economic System[M]. Beijing:Peking University Press, 2003:42-46.]
[9]
叶浩,庄大昌.城市体系规模分布与空间分布的关系研究[J].世界地理研究,2015,24(3):75-82.[Ye Hao, Zhang Da-chang. The relationship between size distribution and spatial distribution of urban systems[J]. World Regional Studies, 2015,24(3):75-82.]
[10]
张耀军,荆文锴,李硕.基于人口空间分布的城镇化发展趋势研究[J].河南社会科学,2016,24(6):108-113.[Zhang Yaojun, Jing Wenkai, Li Shuo. Research on the development trend of urbanization based on population sptial distribution[J]. Henan Social Sciences, 2016,24(6):108-113.]
[11]
吴光周,杨家文.中国城市规模幂律分布实证研究[J].经济地理, 2017,37(1):59-65.[Wu Guangzhou, Yang Jiawen. The empirical study of Chinese city rang-size power law distribution[J]. Economic Geography, 2017,37(1):59-65.]
[16]
罗宏翔,赵果庆.FDI产业空间自相关与空间集聚——再论为什么FDI不集聚西部[J].经济管理,2012,34(9):37-45.[Zhao Guoqing, Luo Hongxiang. Spatial dependence and agglomeration of FDI industries:The re-examination of why FDI does not agglomeration in western China[J]. Economic Management, 2012,34(9):37-45.]
[10]
张耀军,荆文锴,李硕.基于人口空间分布的城镇化发展趋势研究[J].河南社会科学,2016,24(6):108-113.[Zhang Yaojun, Jing Wenkai, Li Shuo. Research on the development trend of urbanization based on population sptial distribution[J]. Henan Social Sciences, 2016,24(6):108-113.]
[11]
吴光周,杨家文.中国城市规模幂律分布实证研究[J].经济地理, 2017,37(1):59-65.[Wu Guangzhou, Yang Jiawen. The empirical study of Chinese city rang-size power law distribution[J]. Economic Geography, 2017,37(1):59-65.]
[12]
卓莉,史培军,陈晋.20世纪90年代中国城市时空变化特征——基于灯光指数CNLI方法的探讨[J].地理学报,2003,58(6):893-902.[Zhou Li, Shi Peijun, Chen Jin. Application of compound night light index derived from DMSP/OLS data to urbanization analysis in China in the 1990s[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003,58(6):893-902.]
[17]
Anselin L. Spatial Econometrics:Methods and Models[M].Boston:Kluwer Academic Punlishers,1988:32-54.
[11]
吴光周,杨家文.中国城市规模幂律分布实证研究[J].经济地理, 2017,37(1):59-65.[Wu Guangzhou, Yang Jiawen. The empirical study of Chinese city rang-size power law distribution[J]. Economic Geography, 2017,37(1):59-65.]
[12]
卓莉,史培军,陈晋.20世纪90年代中国城市时空变化特征——基于灯光指数CNLI方法的探讨[J].地理学报,2003,58(6):893-902.[Zhou Li, Shi Peijun, Chen Jin. Application of compound night light index derived from DMSP/OLS data to urbanization analysis in China in the 1990s[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003,58(6):893-902.]
[13]
陆铭.空间的力量:地理、政治与城市发展[M].上海:格致出版社, 2013:5-9.[Lu Ming. Power Space:Geography, Politics and Urban Development[M]. Shanghai:Gezhi Press, 2013:5-9.]
[18]
沈体雁,冯等田,孙铁山.空间计量经济学[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2010:112-114.[Shen Tiyan, Feng Dengtian, Sun Tieshan. Spatial Econometrics[M]. Beijing:Peking University Press, 2010:112-114.]
[12]
卓莉,史培军,陈晋.20世纪90年代中国城市时空变化特征——基于灯光指数CNLI方法的探讨[J].地理学报,2003,58(6):893-902.[Zhou Li, Shi Peijun, Chen Jin. Application of compound night light index derived from DMSP/OLS data to urbanization analysis in China in the 1990s[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003,58(6):893-902.]
[13]
陆铭.空间的力量:地理、政治与城市发展[M].上海:格致出版社, 2013:5-9.[Lu Ming. Power Space:Geography, Politics and Urban Development[M]. Shanghai:Gezhi Press, 2013:5-9.]
[14]
赵果庆,罗宏翔.中国制造业集聚:度量与显著性检验——基于集聚测量新方法[J].统计研究,2009,26(3):64-69.[Zhao Guoqing, Luo Hongxiang. An intensity measure and significance test of China's manufacturing industry agglomeration based on the new method on agglomeration intensity measure[J]. Statistical Research, 2009,26(3):64-69.]
[19]
Cole A J, Matschinski M, Kendall D G, et al. A trend surface technique[J]. Revue De Linstitut International De Statistique, 1970,38(1):12-34.
[13]
陆铭.空间的力量:地理、政治与城市发展[M].上海:格致出版社, 2013:5-9.[Lu Ming. Power Space:Geography, Politics and Urban Development[M]. Shanghai:Gezhi Press, 2013:5-9.]
[14]
赵果庆,罗宏翔.中国制造业集聚:度量与显著性检验——基于集聚测量新方法[J].统计研究,2009,26(3):64-69.[Zhao Guoqing, Luo Hongxiang. An intensity measure and significance test of China's manufacturing industry agglomeration based on the new method on agglomeration intensity measure[J]. Statistical Research, 2009,26(3):64-69.]
[15]
黄登仕.经济系统的密度周期性与复杂性[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2003:42-46.[Huang Dengshi. Periodic Density and Complexity of the Economic System[M]. Beijing:Peking University Press, 2003:42-46.]
[20]
郭仁忠.空间分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2010:22-26.[Guo Renzhong. Space Analysis[M]. Beijing:Higher Education Press, 2010:22-26.]
[14]
赵果庆,罗宏翔.中国制造业集聚:度量与显著性检验——基于集聚测量新方法[J].统计研究,2009,26(3):64-69.[Zhao Guoqing, Luo Hongxiang. An intensity measure and significance test of China's manufacturing industry agglomeration based on the new method on agglomeration intensity measure[J]. Statistical Research, 2009,26(3):64-69.]
[15]
黄登仕.经济系统的密度周期性与复杂性[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2003:42-46.[Huang Dengshi. Periodic Density and Complexity of the Economic System[M]. Beijing:Peking University Press, 2003:42-46.]
[16]
罗宏翔,赵果庆.FDI产业空间自相关与空间集聚——再论为什么FDI不集聚西部[J].经济管理,2012,34(9):37-45.[Zhao Guoqing, Luo Hongxiang. Spatial dependence and agglomeration of FDI industries:The re-examination of why FDI does not agglomeration in western China[J]. Economic Management, 2012,34(9):37-45.]
[15]
黄登仕.经济系统的密度周期性与复杂性[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2003:42-46.[Huang Dengshi. Periodic Density and Complexity of the Economic System[M]. Beijing:Peking University Press, 2003:42-46.]
[16]
罗宏翔,赵果庆.FDI产业空间自相关与空间集聚——再论为什么FDI不集聚西部[J].经济管理,2012,34(9):37-45.[Zhao Guoqing, Luo Hongxiang. Spatial dependence and agglomeration of FDI industries:The re-examination of why FDI does not agglomeration in western China[J]. Economic Management, 2012,34(9):37-45.]
[17]
Anselin L. Spatial Econometrics:Methods and Models[M].Boston:Kluwer Academic Punlishers,1988:32-54.
[16]
罗宏翔,赵果庆.FDI产业空间自相关与空间集聚——再论为什么FDI不集聚西部[J].经济管理,2012,34(9):37-45.[Zhao Guoqing, Luo Hongxiang. Spatial dependence and agglomeration of FDI industries:The re-examination of why FDI does not agglomeration in western China[J]. Economic Management, 2012,34(9):37-45.]
[17]
Anselin L. Spatial Econometrics:Methods and Models[M].Boston:Kluwer Academic Punlishers,1988:32-54.
[18]
沈体雁,冯等田,孙铁山.空间计量经济学[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2010:112-114.[Shen Tiyan, Feng Dengtian, Sun Tieshan. Spatial Econometrics[M]. Beijing:Peking University Press, 2010:112-114.]
[17]
Anselin L. Spatial Econometrics:Methods and Models[M].Boston:Kluwer Academic Punlishers,1988:32-54.
[18]
沈体雁,冯等田,孙铁山.空间计量经济学[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2010:112-114.[Shen Tiyan, Feng Dengtian, Sun Tieshan. Spatial Econometrics[M]. Beijing:Peking University Press, 2010:112-114.]
[19]
Cole A J, Matschinski M, Kendall D G, et al. A trend surface technique[J]. Revue De Linstitut International De Statistique, 1970,38(1):12-34.
[18]
沈体雁,冯等田,孙铁山.空间计量经济学[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2010:112-114.[Shen Tiyan, Feng Dengtian, Sun Tieshan. Spatial Econometrics[M]. Beijing:Peking University Press, 2010:112-114.]
[19]
Cole A J, Matschinski M, Kendall D G, et al. A trend surface technique[J]. Revue De Linstitut International De Statistique, 1970,38(1):12-34.
[20]
郭仁忠.空间分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2010:22-26.[Guo Renzhong. Space Analysis[M]. Beijing:Higher Education Press, 2010:22-26.]
[19]
Cole A J, Matschinski M, Kendall D G, et al. A trend surface technique[J]. Revue De Linstitut International De Statistique, 1970,38(1):12-34.
[20]
郭仁忠.空间分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2010:22-26.[Guo Renzhong. Space Analysis[M]. Beijing:Higher Education Press, 2010:22-26.]
[20]
郭仁忠.空间分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2010:22-26.[Guo Renzhong. Space Analysis[M]. Beijing:Higher Education Press, 2010:22-26.]
