Abstract：The authors use Pearson correlation analysis, Dagum Gini coefficient, GTWR model and grey prediction model and other methods, based on the national population census data in 2000, 2010 and 2020, taking Heilongjiang province, which has a large population contraction and a high level of aging, reveal the spatio-temporal coupling relationship between the two, and analyze the factors influencing population aging, Predict population size and aging development trend. Research shows that:1) Over the past 20 years, the population size has undergone an evolutionary process from slow growth to mild contraction to severe and severe contraction. 2) The overall level of population aging shows a gradient upward trend from adult type I to elderly type I to elderly type III. 3) Both municipal and county-level units exhibit a highly positive correlation between population contraction and population aging growth. 4) The migration rate, elderly population base, per capita education years, mortality rate, and per capita GDP have a positive impact on the level of population aging. 5) In the next decade, the population size of the region will continue to decline, and the level of population aging will be accelerating.
张旖琳, 吴相利, 程李佳. 人口收缩与老龄化双重时空格局演变及影响因素——以黑龙江省为例[J]. 人文地理, 2024, 39(1): 80-92.
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