中国公众再生育态度的省际差异及影响因素——基于CGSS2021随机情境实验

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2025.04.009

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摘要在三孩政策的推动下，各省的新生儿孩次结构呈现出新变化。再生育态度作为再生育行为的先导，研究其省际差异及影响因素有助于因地制宜地探索再生育支持政策。本研究利用2021年中国综合社会调查（CGSS）数据搭载的随机情境实验，使用多层次Logit回归模型探究公众在不同情境下对生育二孩、三孩态度的影响因素及省际差异。结果显示，三孩政策实施后公众再生育态度的空间格局发生变化，二孩生育态度“西高东低”，三孩生育态度“南高北低”；公众再生育态度加速向消极转变，持积极生育二孩与生育三孩态度的可能性呈正相关关系；“隔代照料”对再生育态度起促进作用，但高老年人口抚养比起抑制作用，老幼照护应统筹考虑。

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	冯志昕
	王斌
	林琳

关键词 ：再生育态度, 省际差异, 随机情境实验, 多层次Logit模型

Abstract：This study utilizes data from the 2021 China General Social Survey (CGSS), conducted by the China Survey and Data Center at Renmin University. The survey used a randomized scenario experiment to capture respondents' attitudes toward having a second or third child under different conditions: annual family income availability of family care, access to childcare services, and the gender of the existing child. Through the application of Multilevel Logit models, this analysis examines the factors influencing public attitudes and provincial differences regarding additional births. The results show that: 1) After the implementation of the three-child policy, the spatial pattern of the public's attitude towards additional births has changed. 2) Attitudes toward additional births have changed significantly, with a positive correlation between support for having a second child and a third child. 3) The combined care model of "one old and one young" needs to be developed.

Key words： attitudes toward additional births provincial differences randomized scenario experiment Multilevel logit models

收稿日期: 2024-07-21

PACS:

K901

基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目（W2432053）；中山大学地理科学与规划学院引进人才基本启动费项目（37000-12230021）

通讯作者: 林琳（1964—），女，广东中山人，博士，教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为健康地理、城市地理和城乡规划。E-mail: eeslinl@mail.sysu.edu.cn。 E-mail: eeslinl@mail.sysu.edu.cn

作者简介: 冯志昕（1984—），男，广东广州人，博士，副教授，硕士生导师，主要研究方向为健康地理、人口老年化、人口生育、社会医学。E-mail:frankfengs@outlook.com。

引用本文:

冯志昕, 王斌, 林琳. 中国公众再生育态度的省际差异及影响因素——基于CGSS2021随机情境实验[J]. 人文地理, 2025, 40(4): 88-96. FENG Zhi-xin, WANG Bin, LIN Lin. PROVINCIAL DIFFERENCES AND DETERMINANTS OF PUBLIC ATTITUDES TOWARD ADDITIONAL BIRTHS IN CHINA: EVIDENCE FROM THE CGSS 2021 RANDOMIZED SCENARIO EXPERIMENT. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2025, 40(4): 88-96.

链接本文:

http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2025.04.009 或 http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/Y2025/V40/I4/88

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